- Inbound and outbound moves by state or province, according to Atlas Vans’ annual U.S. and Canada moving trends map, as published at businessinsider.com 3 Jan 2013.
BC shows 269 outbound and 169 inbound moves for 2012.
Most Recent Comments:
- china il on British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”
- tfcu oklahoma on British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”
- Real Estate Tsunami on Chat Thread
- 604x on Chat Thread
- Monserrate on David Dodge – “Look mister borrower, you’ve gotta have an equity stake in this as well… so that if things go really bad, it’s not all on the Canadian taxpayer, part of it is on you.”
- 604x on Chat Thread
- 604x on Chat Thread
- Nemesis on Chat Thread
- neonatal nurse Jobs on ‘Giant Bubble Bursts Into The Record Books – “Screams of excitement followed gasps of astonishment as a giant bubble rose up and surrounded the participants before bursting in spectacular fashion.”
- What And When To Purchase Langley Real Estate Langley Real Estate Agents Can Be Busy Because Of The Completely New Building Around The City! | Bookworm Room on Author Of ‘Real Estate Investing for Canadians for Dummies’ “jumped into the market 3 years ago with a 2 BR apartment in Mount Pleasant”; Reports Ownership Cheaper Than Renting; Leaves Out Math
- rod_jonsson on Chat Thread
- Annie on British Columbians Selling & Moving To The US – “It was just too good of an opportunity to turn down.”
Type of Anecdote
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Blogroll
- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
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- 20 North American Economics
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Latest Anecdotes:
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”
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- Chat Thread wp.me/pcq1o-5vD 3 weeks ago
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In 2011 listings crested over 25,000 on around Sept 22. In 2012 total listings went over 28,000 on around July 1.
The burning question that i pose is if listings in the Lower Mainland top 30,000 this year. Could they even go higher to say… 35,000? And if you believe they will, when will it occur? Thoughts anyone……
My guess is, yes, listings will absolutely exceed 30,000 total on any given day in 2013 and it could happen as soon as May 15. Also looking at the charts from 2011 and 12 those peak numbers were only sustained for a few days at the the most. Will this years chart of peak listings look as flat as the overall market predictions cameron and tsur are betting on?
As the US economic data keeps streaming in watch the bond market continue to react and the popular Canadian homeowner myth of “the government will never let interest rates go up to screw me out of my house” go right out the window. A financial quarter or two of bond rate adjustments and the MSM will have whipped the herd in to a froth of either a choice for those qualified, rushing to re-fi and for those who will not qualify, listing at any price.
the velocity of fecal storms in my humble opinion in the next 6-9 months in the major Canadian real estate markets will make Superstorm Sandy look like a sleight summer squall.
Jebus, if listings go to 30K+ there will be not one but two houses for sale on every block on both sides of the street on the Westside if Summer 2012 was a representative sample.
We have gone from a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage,
To a For Sale sign on every porch.
Prosperity FTW
Bob, in Vancouver, I think you also have a little pot in every chicken.
To ease the pain
I will be most interested in seeing what the absolute sales numbers look like. Buying power is gone now and all the rule changes have kicked in limiting how many first timers can enter the market. A crash in sales in the range of 25% or greater cannot be ruled out.
the math
listings/sales = ∞² – (∞) + hope – (desire) / nesting * desperation + BPOE³
BPOE appears to be treated as an absolutely value out here. Please correct your notation to include |BPOE^3|, as cubed numbers can be negative values.
*highly academic snort*
Fucking perfect edit. LOLOLOL thank you
listings/sales = ∞² – (∞) + hope – (desire) / nesting * desperation + BPOEⁿ
If BPOE is an imaginary concept agree the equation breaks down. Use conjugates to “keep it real”.
Don’t forget about all the vacant houses owned by foreigners. Do you guys have a function to account for “empty sets”? HaHa.
Listings can easily go over 30k. Just look the higher highs and higher lows pattern. Chart
future arrived, colleagues
He pretty much nailed the future of communications! Though, I don’t think we’ve come to grips yet with the full impact of that on the urban form.
I was one of the outbound!
What strikes me about that map is the stability of Quebec, when you consider it is the second most populous province after Ontario. Compared to Ontario, Quebec has less than a quarter of inbound/outbound moves but it’s populations is about two-thirds that of Ontario. Quebec also has far fewer outbound moves than Alberta and BC, even though Quebec has almost double the population of BC and more than double the population of Alberta. When you account for population, Quebec has far less mobility ( both inbound and outbound movers) than other provinces. Also, Newfoundland and New Brunswick (strangely) are the only two provinces to receive more inbound movers than they lost from outbound movers. That’s what jumps out at me from that map.
Sorry Quebec is not quite double BC’s population (it used to be though). As of 2011 census, Quebec has 7.9 million and BC has 4.4 million people. You still get my point, though. There is way more movement in BC, Alberta, and Ontario ( and probably the other provinces) as a percentage of population than compared to Quebec.
You might also consider that this particular mover is not well represented in Quebec and people prefer using U-Haul instead.
All on July 1 in Quebec as well.
I added up all the respective outbound and inbound numbers in Canada. Nationwide, there were 1668 outbound moves and 1156 inbound moves. I haven’t added up the US numbers (too lazy on a Saturday morning), but it could be interesting to see if the net outward flow was possibly due south. I think it is also worth considering that household moves involving van lines are not uncommonly a result of professional or executive relocation, often paid for by the company as they’re not cheap (I’ve done it a few times within the US and Canada over the past decade). The ‘brain drain’ continues?
I was very pleased to find this site. I definitely enjoyed reading every little bit of it and I have it bookmarked to check out new stuff posted regularly.