Vancouver Sun Continues To March Out Bullish Reassurance – ‘Vancouver real estate buyers waiting for a price collapse in 2013 could be in for a long wait’

van sun 29 dec 2012 D11

While national media, international media, and various internet commentators are all warning of increasing signs of a Vancouver RE mania in the early stages of implosion, the Vancouver Sun continues to march out overly-optimistic arguments from the usual suspects. Above image of an article in the 29 Dec 2012 Vancouver Sun print edition (page D11) shows how visual prominence is given to the ‘Sold’ property (hardly representative!) and to the headshots of their chosen experts. Celebrity over substance?
Somerville argues that external disruptions are necessary for a local housing crash. This is incorrect. Speculative manias all collapse for the same essential reason: they run out of fuel. External shocks may speed along collapse, and will likely be argued to have ’caused’ a crash, but the real core reason for a crash is the underlying unsustainable architecture of the spec mania itself.
Muir believes that sales, now below average, should return to the mean, to their “long term-averages”. This is intriguing argument, as we’ve never seen him apply similar logic to prices, which would have to plummet by 50% or more to return to mean historic trend lines.
- vreaa

The Sun article has been discussed and dissected at Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest: ‘You can almost smell the desperation – buyer’s once again told prices will not be coming down’, 30 Dec 2012.

32 responses to “Vancouver Sun Continues To March Out Bullish Reassurance – ‘Vancouver real estate buyers waiting for a price collapse in 2013 could be in for a long wait’

  1. Ah, the dynamic duo to the rescue…

  2. Dumb and dumber at it again. VREAA is totally correct, this is a mania, not a market built on solid fundamental business facts. Muir is so delusional it’s downright fricking scary how far this could now fall. Too much fructose in the kool-aid.

  3. Unfortunately the media continue to give these guys access without properly seeking out bearish comments as rebuttal. Shame on Sun reporters. I expect better.

  4. Just to add to that, I have heard of some very big money having problems raising cash or going bankrupt so there is a silent credit squeeze going on amongst the big boys right now that the media doesn’t like to, or want to talk about.

  5. vancouverbubbleman

    i have overheard so many conversations about how the spring will bring much higher prices and its best to pull your listing if u have one and re-list in the spring. id say at least half the supply has been pulled in order to re-list in spring…i search mls a few times every week – have been for years. my own parents tried selling their house from oct-dec and had no bids- their realtor told them to re-list in the spring as mkt will be higher. this mkt is done and their is a huuuuuge air pocket between here and reality.i was talking to a buddy who bought a house about 9 months ago …he still has to gut and reno it. i said when the mkt falls over the next few years…it will be a much healthier city- he said mkt has already fallen as far as it will. for some reason- all the sheep think that the spring ( 8 weeks from now ) will bring in a massive amount of buyers to clean up all the supply at all time high prices. these buyers are gone , many of them holding the bag of sh*t that they helped create. china has stopped buying – its over. interest rates have nowhere to go but higher and mtge rules are much tighter. its gonna be ugly but this city, although not the best place on earth, is a good one and it will be a much healthier , friendly and liveable city once we get a massive spanking for being such fools the past 10 years.

    • BTW, it seems a massive amount of homes were relisted/newly listed today (3 Jan 2013).
      We’ll wait for the guys at VCI for the quantitative analysis.

    • Amen x 1000

    • UBCghettodweller

      So what you’re really saying is that Vancouver will sort of return to something of what it was like in the late-1990s? A really nice Canadian city with mild weather, lots of Asians, somewhat premium housing prices but relatively cheap everything else with good lifestyle choices for many different types of people? Yeah, I settle for that. I liked that Vancouver much more than what it’s turned in to in the last half-decade.

      • It could be better than ever, or it could turn into something much worse, but somehow I doubt Vancouver will ever be the same. The city has always changed. You really never know.

  6. Well said Vancouverbubbleman….the Chinese are moving into the US market where there are signs that the market is improving, although slowly…

  7. Vancouver’s fundamentals are pitiful………low wages, dismal career opportunity, no big companies, no industry, constant cold rain, short summers, long winters, unfriendly people……does Vancouver have anything desirable

  8. Are Tsur and Cameron in charge of the Port Mann bridge too? Both seem to be skating on thin ice ..Sorry I could’nt resist.

  9. chipshot, Muir’s not delusional at all. He knows the truth just like all of us here and is doing his slimy best to distort it as long as possible.

    [Strong language redacted; apologies to Gord. -ed.], pure and simple.

  10. I’m struck by the cagey avoidance and deflection practiced by the various local RE industry spokespeople when it comes to any suggestion that speculation, market sentiment, human emotion, peer pressure, behavioural trends, human nature, and so on, could have anything to do with the current condition of a real estate market. It’s always sober talk about various economic factors, which granted, may have a fair degree of significance, but in some cases, may not. The conversation is always contained within bloodless and safe areas where nothing untoward is likely to pop up. And the reporters know their role.

    The spokespeople are all essentially in the business of selling, which includes massive doses of psychological gamesmanship, and at some visceral level they understand that the psychology of buyers is an unstable apple cart at the best of times. So Rule #1 could very well be: Don’t Upset The Buyer. And Rule #2 might be: Don’t Admit That There Is A Rule #1, At Least Publicly, Because It Might Upset The Buyer. There’s something almost conspiratorial or cultish about it. I’m not saying they actively discuss what the message should be, or how they should deliver it, or how they should control their language, although some of them might. I’m guessing it’s more of an unspoken understanding. As a group, they sure are tightly wrapped, and at the moment it feels like they’re tiptoeing past the unstable snow pack on a mountainside. You can certainly understand the motivation. If the buyers do get well and truly spooked, their industry could be dead for five years, or longer. More than long enough to throw thousands out of their jobs.

    But we all know bubbles happen. Everyone knows it. Not talking about it won’t make it go away.

  11. Noraml realtor behavior

    From history, realtors and ppl of the RE industry are usually the ones who need to run before the last call. As they are also handsful and taking their last chance to sell, that’s the exact time they would ask their clients to pull out for while, for whatever reason! The new year comes, they will certainly tell their clients you need to face the reality; it’s time to sell, but you need to list low to attract a buyer! Never ask them why that’s totally opposite to what they told you before, cus it is a new season!

  12. It’s Tsur, the RE Specialist, again! It is hot money from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s printing press that has kept pushing up RE and stock prices around the world. Only the rich benefit from it while those who need affordable housing and food are priced out. Since money changes hands without creating jobs and increasing productivity, the longer the speculative mania continues, the uglier the consequences. Shame on the Vancouver Sun.

  13. the vancouver sun report who wrote this article has spread misinformation before. i emailed her once about incorrect ‘facts’ that she used and she never responded. i guess in this case, she’s simply deferring to the two experts, who you can tell are talking like they are between a rock and a hard place. they don’t want to admit that the drop is coming, but yet don’t want to spoil the bull party that sponsors them.

  14. “But while cyclical ups and downs in the housing market are to be expected, my forecast is not simply for a cyclical downturn. Rather, I see a long-term fall in home prices that will not be reversed when the economy picks up.

    The key factor is demographics.”

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-housing-prices-arent-coming-back/article6929120/

  15. In the past year, out of about 15 empty units (out of 32) in my west side townhouse complex, only one sold, in January 2012 for 1.28m. Thus, for my townhouse complex there is at least 15 years of inventory. This isn’t counting all the other buildings going up around me still. You don’t need much of a brain to see supply is far outstripping demand.

  16. Shame on the Vancouver Sun and other mainstream media for not reflecting a alternative view. In fact, I don’t think I could name a local bearish economist. Is there such a person?

  17. The Americans are NOT in Baghdad. I repeat, everything is fine in the Kingdom. Those are just fireworks you’re hearing… from our victory celebration over the infidels!

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