“I still have kids living in BC who refuse to believe that this is anything more than a hiccup in the Canadian market.”

“My family sold my mother’s old Vancouver West house in November 2011… a year ago. Thank god all three of us siblings agreed to sell at that time.
I still have kids living in BC who refuse to believe that this is anything more than a hiccup in the Canadian market! (I live in the US)”

JimH at greaterfool.ca 30 Nov 2012 8:48pm

29 responses to ““I still have kids living in BC who refuse to believe that this is anything more than a hiccup in the Canadian market.”

  1. …”kids living in BC who refuse to believe that this is anything more than a hiccup…”…

    Indubitably. And many of them probably also think that “Yellow” means “GoFaster”.

    SundayMorningZen & QuoteO’TheWeekEnd!, for Nekkd, et al…

    “It’s absolutely necessary to set up a road safety day.” Li Keping, professor in traffic engineering at the Shanghai-based Tongji University

    [ChinaDaily] – 67% admit running red lights: survey

    …”BEIJING – In an online survey released on Sunday, 67 percent of 10,682 participants admitted to running red lights. At the same time, 72.1 percent voted such violations “the worst behavior” on the road, according to the results published on minyi.net.cn… …As to the reason for such violations, 63.4 percent said they were following what others did and 40.6 percent believed that they would never be punished for their actions. According to the ministry, running red lights caused 4,227 road accidents in China, involving 798 deaths, in the first 10 months of 2012.”…

    http://tinyurl.com/cuy33ue

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      Well, here in Ditchmond, the German drivers with their L and N stickers are actually driving far too slow.

      • UBCghettodweller

        But that doesn’t stop them from never bothering to use their signal lights.

      • Yeah, what is it with drivers in Vancouver not using the signal lights? So annoying!

      • Naked Official Legion

        Loyal cadres! Root out the disharmonious splittists!

        My favorite are the ones that drive through red lights to make left turns even though they were three cars back in the line

      • Because the guy behind you in the lane you want to change to will suddenly speed up to prevent you from entering? Because you know, if he let you in then he will be delayed by like a second, maybe even have to wait that extra red light. And if you wait 1 red light, it means you will have to stop at every red light so best to make that other guy merge in behind you.

  2. If you look at a long term, nominal real estate price chart, how can it be anything but a hiccup? Coming to another conclusion would require a lot of thinking about inflation, demographics and the fundamental drivers of demand. Who’s got time for that when all around you are people who (up to their eyeballs in the scheme as they are) swear it’s only a hiccup?

  3. “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever
    in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.”
    —Kenneth Boulding, Economist

    • Mankind will find a way. Finite is a relative term. We will dig in the next galaxy if opportunity, technology and luck combine.

    • Real Estate Tsunami

      “is either a madman, an economist or a Vancouver realtor”

      • Naked Official Overdrive

        Disharmonious! The yellow helicopter is outside your window, comrade!

      • Will it be leaking? Certainly not! I don’t think the inhabitants will take any chances with any leaks. If it leaks you die, from the gases or radiation or by having all the air sucked out of you.

        How much will it cost? I would say IF our paper currency still retains its value, having our first colony on space would be in trillions of dollars. It will be a joint venture of governments, state controlled companies and private corporations.

      • Real Estate Tsunami

        This just in.
        The overseas Germans set up a display suit on Mars.
        The plan is to build 20 condo towers, each 500 stories high.
        In charge of pre-sales is Bob Rennie, Vancouver’s Condo King.
        Better hurry. On the first weekend, 80% of the units sold out.

    • UBCghettodweller

      I simply look to my E. coli cultures for inspiration. OD600=0.1 to OD600=1.0 are fun times (Or ~OD=5.0 for those who understand how to use a spectrophotometer properly ). Then it gets ugly…. and smelly. Post-log phase E. coli really do “smell like ass” when they’re eating each other because they’ve consumed all the nutrients in the broth.

      Useful likes for those who aren’t microbiologists:

      Nemesis, I challenge you to find a poignant youtube video related to primary scientific data.

      • The ‘BackStory’….

        The DataCollection….

        [NoteToED/BordelloDweller: If I had written that picture’s LogLine… “He became the experiment… The experiment… became him.”

      • Nerd-a-liscious

      • Phew, dramatic stuff, Nem. Makes me want to see the whole movie. So I also have a video. Much shorter and scarier. It is an anology for the human race.

        We all know we are screwed, right?

    • So true Anymouse. And so we are collectively heading for the wall. There is no way to avoid a nasty conclusion at this late date either. Whether that date comes in a month or thirty years we have pretty much reached the exhaustion point where population growth and resource demands merge. We all know it too. That is why we don’t usually discuss it.

  4. Today is special Christmas ale brewing day for me. (This does have a point, I promise.)
    Plenty of work today for me to prepare a yeast paradise, clean environment, plenty of food, no competition. Never in their little yeasty minds did they imagine things could be so good!
    The yeast will be added in about three hours time. First 12-24 hours is their pioneer stage, not much is visible from outside, but inside they are busy colonizing, setting up home and procreating like crazy. Life is hard, but rewarding.
    Next comes steady growth, not wild expansion, and activity is evident. All the dissolved oxygen is long gone, and the yeast has to switch to anaerobic metabolism, which is how the alcohol is produced as a waste product. (waste for the yeast, I like it!). No problem yet, life is good, plenty of food, they can “smell” the other yeast, but that just means a stable happy industrious population. Families are smaller, but the population still grows.
    This lasts about 48 hours, towards the end a few wild-eyed crazy yeasts start saying “maybe we should slow down on the whole endless expansion thing, think of sustainability”. They are mocked and jeered at.
    Quite suddenly everything changes! Food is suddenly scarce, the environment is choked with waste products, yeast are dying, starving in the streets. another day and almost all the yeast have entered their fall-out shelters, gone dormant until better times come again. But nobody could have seen this coming, and the few bearish yeasts die alongside the rest.
    A few still roam around, scavenging the last scraps of food, with zombie yeast cells eat the brains of the dead and dying.
    From my god-like perch I watch at laugh! One more day to allow all of that previously thriving society to drift down to join the rest of the corpses (in reality most are still alive, just dormant. In a commercial brewery the thick layer of yeast at the bottom would be washed and used to start the next batch. They didn’t learn a thing and would repeat the cycle.) I draw the clear liquid off and discard the yeast, carbonate it, let it age a couple of weeks and enjoy a sweet rich strong slightly spiced 10% alcohol special winter warmer ale!
    Exponential growth to infinity my ass!

  5. UBCgd/Alex -> Spot on, great examples. And not simply broad metaphors, better than that… the running out of fuel causes the downfall.

    Individuals with hands-on understanding of natural processes like population growth, gravity, forest fires, Texas Holdem, Beanie Babies, mob behavior, cults, family dynamics, cattle herding, the weather, tides, storytelling… to name just a few… all have advantage when identifying bubbles and assessing probable price trajectories.

  6. To Vreaa, Alex and UBCgd

    Value of Vancouver real estate aside and despite what the doomsayers say, growth is not going to disappear because we have a “finite” world.

    The yeast anology reminded me of what Thomas Malthus predicted in the “Principle of Population”. How very wrong he was. To be frank, I feel insulted to be compared to microorganisms whose only purpose is to procreate.

    In 1800s, when we were an agricultural based world, it was difficult for us sustain a population of 1 billion. Could the people living in those times have imagined that in only 200 years later, our world population would grow by 7 times and these future generations would on average have a better standard of living than them?

    Like the industrial revolution which enabled us to have such awesome lives, we are the midst of another revolution which will have a greater impact on humanity in a lesser time period. I believe the internet has been our greatest invention to date and will be the launching pad from which other great invention, innovation, freedom and general overall enlightening goodness will spread.

    We will be so much greater when everyone has the opportunity to be educated, have the freedom we take for granted and be able to tap into their unique talents to live a fulfilling life and make the world a better place.

    Have some faith and don’t discount the human potential.

    • [NoteToEd: “Hope runs deep.” But as we used to say in the DarkArts, “Optimal event modelling is a poor paradigm to employ when contingency planning for worst case scenarios.”]

      • lol … hope indeed alive only where humility trumps grandeur … oh, the backup plan: demonstrated capacity (i.e. resolve + wmd) to exterminate pro re nata

    • Ha Ha! Simon you really cracked me with that comment. Your optimism is endearing. I hate to burst your bubble though but we are on track for a cataclysmic end to population expansion and it is coming soon. Seen a long term pop chart recently?…..no bubble there either…..keep shopping…..everything will be juuuuusst fine.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Population_curve.svg

      • Farmer, please find a chart that shows the carrying capacity of human capacity. Unlike every other species, who are stuck competing against each other within an unchanging limiting factor (such as food, land, disease etc) scenario, we have been able to dictate our own destiny by redefining our limiting factors. With each generation the carrying capacity is increasing at a greater rate than the population. Thus, we could sustain the current population . Obviously, this won’t be the case forever but like an optimist, I believe technological advances in the renewable energy sector and behavioural changes (eating more veggies for example) will let us sustain a healthy population of 9-12 billion.

        The lack of population growth is more worrying than vice versa. Japan only produces 1 kid per couple, most European countries are less than 2. Economics is at work! In developed countries, kids are an investment, and that too an expensive one. Strictly financially speaking, their ROIC is terrible. So fear not, the population equilibrium will be reached when the time comes.

  7. I fined that most owners never think prices will go down. Also I fined people in my age group (early 30s) never think prices will never go down because they haven’t since we were in high school. I hear all the usual things like not a lot of land,everyone wants to live here ect.

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