“BC has the most heavily indebted population in the country. The average BC citizen has $37,879 in consumer (nonmortgage) debt. That’s 40 per cent higher than the national average.”

“Dave Malicki discovered his dark side as he plunged into a hellhole of debt.
The good friend, loving father and respected lawyer showed a flair for denial, counter-attack and wilful ignorance.
Many people thrashing in debt try to consolidate their loans. Malicki de-consolidated.
He divided his borrowing. He borrowed from his mom so he could fly to see his daughters in England, from his girlfriend to cover his rent, from a lawyer friend to cover his law society fee.
“I was in such a state of denial that when my girlfriend or family member would bring it up, I would turn on them and say that they didn’t have any faith in me,” he says. “It was a horrible, horrible thing.”
It grew worse. He fell behind in child support payments and feared he might not be able to borrow money to fly to see his children.
When his debts swelled to $85,000, his girlfriend and his accountant convinced him to get help. Ashamed and guilty, one eye twitching with anxiety, he dragged himself into a bankruptcy trustee.
A few hours later, he had filed for bankruptcy. A euphoria washed over him that has yet to completely fade, seven years later.
“I was walking on air,” he says. “I had tears of joy and relief.”
…
“A growing number of B.C. residents are running this emotional gauntlet. Beset by stagnant incomes and rising prices, B.C. posted a 42 per cent increase in people going bust over the past four years – far higher than the 11-per-cent national increase.
It’s little wonder insolvencies are surging: B.C. has the most heavily indebted population in the country. The average B.C. consumer has $37,879 in consumer (nonmortgage) debt. That’s 40 per cent higher than the national average.”
…
“Malicki, 46, is a beacon of hope for those who fear they will never rehabilitate themselves and emerge from the darkness of debt to a better life. He closely tracks all his costs. A renter and house-sitter, he has cut his spending to the point he only works in law halftime.
The rest of the time he works with children, and does paid and unpaid work outdoors. Next month, he flies to Tanzania for three months to help build a secondary school with a Vancouver-based charity.
“While I’m gone the child-support cheques will be sent out and all my obligations will be met,” he says.
Malicki offers three bits of guidance to people in a financial jam. The first is to talk to an expert – and do it now.
“Write down what you spend. By becoming aware of where your money goes your spending habits will change.”
His third piece of advice is reserved exclusively for people whose self-esteem has taken a hit – which is to say, almost every debtor out there.
“Forgive yourself once a day. Maybe twice.”
- from ‘The people’s debt: B.C. has the most heavily indebted population in the country — and the number is growing’, Paul Luke, The Province, 4 Nov 2012

“Sellers will commonly say, ‘I’m going to wait until the spring, when the market is better.’ And I warn them that it could be worse. And buyers are saying ‘It looks like things are bad, I’m going to hold off until the market drops another 10 or 20%.”

“While the national housing market appears to be retreating in an orderly way, the data show pockets of sharper slowdown, particularly in the western Canadian cities of Vancouver and Victoria, which once led the hot housing market.
“Personally I don’t see any revitalization of the market in the near future,” said Victoria real estate agent Tony Joe, noting that investors have left the market.
Residential sales fell 8.3% in September from a year earlier in Victoria and were down 32.5% in Vancouver, according to the local real estate boards. Prices were down 2.6% in Victoria and 1.4% in Vancouver on the year, according to the Teranet report.
The price declines are far smaller than the plunge that hit U.S. homeowners during the crash. Still, buyers are hesitant, wondering if they should wait until next year to purchase.
“Sellers will commonly say, ‘I’m going to wait until the spring, when the market is better.’ And I warn them that it could be worse,” said Joe. “And of course buyers are saying ’It looks like things are bad, I’m going to hold off until the market drops another 10 or 20%.”’
Joe, a 21-year industry veteran, does not foresee such a drastic decline, simply because Canadian lenders have been prudent and interest rates are not going up soon. Sellers will pull houses off the market rather than accept a price drop.”
- from ‘Canada braces as housing slowdown takes hold’, National Post, 5 Nov 2012

Remembrance Of Markets Past – “It was a bit of a scam going on, and somebody was left holding the pot at the very end.”

Helmut Pastrick, trapped in a Proustian cross-fade
“This is not, in my view, the beginning of a major correction, or recession, or decline in housing prices of 15% or 25% as some predict, mainly because we’re not seeing an economic recession play out at the same time.”
- Helmut Pastrick, on Global TV News, 2 or 3 Nov 2012 (‘Deflating Vancouver Real Estate Bubble’)

We don’t need an “economic recession” for our speculative mania to collapse, it will do so, and is doing so, under its own weight.
Pastricks’s words of comfort are filed in the ‘It’s Only A Flesh Wound‘ sidebar collection. We fully anticipate that some market participants, like the Black Knight, will insist on the market’s strength all the way down, as it is hacked to pieces chunk by chunk.
– vreaa

Alleyway dashcam to prime-time
“Back then, it was more like a stock or commodity that you would day-trade… you’ve made a small percentage, pass it on to the next person, and they will make more, and they will make more, it always happened… (laughs) it was a bit of a scam going on, and somebody was left holding the pot at the very end…”
- Ian Watt, local realtor, on Global TV News, 3 Nov 2012 (‘Death of the Pre-Sales Condo Market’)

Ian Watt might as well be describing the entire Vancouver market.
The horse-trading is less obvious with other property types, but the crucial buying-premised-on-future-price-appreciation, is identical.
-vreaa

[hat-tip to Greenhorn, as always, for the archived videos.]

Thirty Two Westside Sales and Relists

3725 37th Ave W

2,650 sqft 1915 SFH on 50x130lot
Sold 15 Dec 2011 $2,100,000
“Gorgeous heritage B house with many original old charm features along with modern updates. 9′ ceilings, wainscoting, stained glass, pocket doors, fir floors, large modern kitchen… High undeveloped attic awaits your creative ideas. New roof and a beautifully landscaped yard.”
Above home knocked down, and this now under construction:

4,086 sqft 2013 SFH on 50×130 lot
Listed for sale 7 Aug 2012 Asking price $3,890,000
“..a modern and sustainable custom Henry + Glegg designed luxury home located on a south facing property in the West Dunbar neighbourhood. Features include 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms, automated heating, cooling and lighting controls, temp controlled wine cellar, media room, nanny suite with a walk out patio and a three car garage. This home is available now with an opportunity for interior design customization and occupancy Spring 2013.”

3771 11th Ave W
2,946 sqft SFH on 50×122 lot
31 May 2011 Sold $1,958,000
23 Aug 2012 Identical house relisted for sale for $2,680,000
“..guest accommodation down, rented for $1,500 per month.”

4540 13th Ave W
33×122 lot
3 Mar 2012 Sold $1,844,000
25 Sep 2012 2769 sqft New Build Listed for $2,892,000
“Situated on a pretty, tree lined street on a 33 x 122 ft lot.”

3672 15th Ave W
2,520 sqft SFH on 33×122 lot
1 May 2011 Sold $2,099,000
23 Apr 2012 Identical house relisted for sale for $2,538,000
“Renovated to the stud in 1990..”
Now listed as 2,637 sqft

4063 16th Ave W
1,907 sqft SFH on 33×122 lot
2 May 2011 Sold $1,375,000
Painted and relisted 23 Oct 2012, ask price $1,488,000

3528 17th Ave W
2,240 sqft SFH on 33×110 lot
Sold 22 Feb 2011 $1,200,000
Resold 3 Mar 2012 $1,300,000

3804 19th Ave W
1,469 SFH on 33×122 lot
Sold 14 Jun 2011 $1,598,00
Resold 26 Oct 2011 $1,662,000
“This house hasn’t been spoiled by successive renovations and is ready for an update or a rebuild.”

3741 23rd Ave W
2,440 SFH on 33×122 lot
Sold 26 Oct 2011 $1,550,000
Resold 31 Mar 2012 $1,685,000
“Ideal for builders due to the desirable 33×122 lot and the highly rentable 2400 square foot house for investment, but also for family living-in…”
[Good for everybody in fact; especially good for punters wanting to take a chance at flippin'. -ed]

3475 26th Ave W
2650 sqft 20043SFH on 33×130 lot
Sold 26 Jun 2011 $2,410,000
Relisted 12 Sep 2012 $2,448,000
Price change 5 Oct 2012 $2,348,000
Price change now $2,248,000
Failed flip.
“Showing better than new..”

3383 27th Ave W
1,700 sqft 1931 SFH on 33×130 lot
Sold 5 Jun 2011 $1,601,000
3005 sqft new build listed 24 Sep 2012 $2,798,000
“Air conditioned throughout.”

1575 29th Ave W
3,544 sqft SFH on 66×150 lot
Sold 11 Oct 2011 $3,560,000
Relisted 22 Jun 2012, ask price $4,480,000

3677 30th Ave W
1,437 sqft SFH on 33×130 lot
Sold 9 May 2011 $1,651,000
3005 soft new build listed 23 Oct 2012 $2,990,000
“Fully equipped 2 bdrm legal suite with separate entrance in basement can be a mortgage helper…”

3985 30th Ave W
3,200 sqft 1981 SFH on 42×130 lot
Sold 14 Jul 2011 $1,950,000
‘Upgraded’ and relisted 15 Jun 2012 ask price $2,560,000
“Better than brand new! TOTALLY upgraded with high-end finish in 2012.”

3288 32nd Ave W
2,784 sqft 1938 SFH on 48×130 lot
Sold 12 Mar 2012 $2,250,000
Lot divided in two, and redeveloped into two SFHs:
(1) 3288 32nd Ave W
1,778 sqft SFH on 24×130 lot
For sale $1,988,000
(2) 3292 32nd Ave W
1,819 sqft SFH on 24×130 lot
For sale $1,988,000
“A Brand New Home at an affordable price.”

2574 33rd Ave W
1,874 sqft SFH on 66×127 lot
Sold 5 Jun 2011 $1,710,000
Sold 4 Dec 2011 $1,850,000

2753 33rd Ave W
1,500 sqft SFH on 33×133 lot
Sold 4 Nov 2011 $1,250,000
Relisted 18 Oct 2012 Ask Price $1,375,000

3441 33rd Ave W
2,556 sqft 1936 SFH on 56×130 lot
Sold 30 Jan 2012 $1,958,000
Relisted 12 Jun 2012 Ask price $2,080,000
Sold 25 Sep 2012 $1,933,800
“Investor or Builder Alert!”

2606 34th Ave W
3,378 sqft 1912 Craftsman SFH on 60×130 lot
Sold 28 Apr 2012 $2,600,000
Relisted 20 Jul 2012 $2,798,000

3341 34th Ave W
3,470 sqft 1925 SFH on 60×140 lot
Sold 7 Jun 2011 $2,550,000
Relisted 12 Apr 2012 Ask price $2,799,000
Ask price drop to current $2,680,000
“Basement has 2-bedroom suite. Hold, renovate or build your dream home up to approximately 5,800 SqFt.”

2633 36th Ave W
4,808 sqft 1995 SFH on 60×134 lot
Sold 24 Jun 2011 $3,420,000
Relisted 23 Jul 2012 Ask price $3,660,000

3657 36th Ave W
2,200 sqft SFH on 50×130 lot
Sold 21 Nov 2011 $2,210,000
Relisted 25 Sep 2012, after apparent reno:
3,455 sqft SFH
Ask price $2,698,000
“Beautiful Dunbar Home! Completely restored to its original charm & elegance!”

3692 36th Ave W
2,393 sqft SFH on 50×130 lot
Sold (or ? taken off market) 30 Jul 2011 $2,200,000
Relisted 3 May 2012
Sold 19 My 2012 $2,165,000

3981 36th Ave W
4,123 sqft 1937 SFH on 66×130 lot
Sold 3 Aug 2011 $3,100,000
Relisted 14 May 2012 at $3,798,000
Price reduced $3,698,000
“The owner paid $400K to completely renovate the whole house with high quality material such as granite counter, real hardwood floor, stainless appliances. Better and more beautiful than new. Looking out from the master bedroom you can view the ocean, Gulf Island, trees and flowers. All other houses are below yours, south-facing bright home and hardly found big 66′x130′ lot make it more worth buying it, living in for a long time, enjoy the designer’s gorgeous work and it never loses the value. Decade trees circle the yard and makes it more private. Close to all famous schools, UBC, community centre, library, shopping and transit.”

3025 39th Ave W
2,830 sqft SFH on 50×130 lot
Listed 11 Jun 2012 Ask Price $2,180,000
Sold 30 Jul 2012 $1,800,000
Relisted 17 Sep 2012 Ask price $2,237,000
[Relisted with identical MLS blurb/copy, but different realtor. -ed.]

3175 39th Ave W
3,650 sqft 2005 SFH on 50×130 lot
Sold 12 Mar 2012 $2,528,000
Relisted 24 Sep 2012 Ask price $3,080,000
“Owner spent over $200k to upgrade outside & inside, with City Permit.”

2972 42nd Ave W
2,818 sqft 1993 on 35×135 lot
Sold 20 Dec 2011 $1,970,000
“This is not a drive-by.”
Relisted 29 Feb 2012 at ask price $1,980,000
Sold 14 Mar 2012 $1,850,000
“Great value! Move in anytime!”

2005 43rd Ave W
3,545 sqft 1898 SFH on 50×118 lot
Sold 12 Apr 2011 $2,205,000
Relisted 23 Jun 2012 Ask price $2,298,000

2828 43rd Ave W
5,449 sqft 1997 SFH on 66×120 lot
Sold 18 Oct 2011 $3,258,000
Relisted 30 Oct 2012 Ask price $3,598,000
“Beautifully renovated kitchen faces south out over a private landscaped yard.”

2540 45th Ave W
3,901 sqft 2004 SFH on 49×122 lot
Sold 1 Mar 2012 $3,100,000
Relisted 2 Oct 2012 Ask price $3,380,000

1139 46th Ave W
4,345 sqft 1994 SFH on 59×122 lot
Sold 9 Jul 2011 $3,680,000
Relisted 28 May 2012 Ask price $3,680,000

1307 46th Ave W
4,660 sqft SFH on 62×122 lot
Sold 28 Jun 2011 $2,968,888
Relisted 21 Aug 2012 Ask price $3,280,000
Reduced to current $3,180,000

1455 46th Ave W
3,899 sqft SFH on 59×122 lot
Sold 15 Jan 2012 $2,530,000
Relisted 29 Aug 2012
Current ask price $2,588,000

[many thanks to 'westsidefrank' for gathering the data -ed.]

PostCardsFromTheBlastRadius #16 – “Where Dreams Are Real!… and TheHype is ‘Realtor’™”

He’s Baaaack! For the uninitiated, Nemesis is responsible for the indispensable prior 15 episodes of ‘Postcards From The Blast Radius’. And, here it is… Number Sixteen!
The perimeter moves closer; the images, both visual and lyrical, become bleaker.
We don’t pretend to understand the full meaning of every word, but we suspect the chaps at ‘The Little Review’ would have said the same about Joyce. Once in a while, it’s good to give your brain a workout. Keeps you agile.
Thanks to Nem; and, to readers: good fortune.  Be sure to click on the panoramas for large images. – vreaa
—–

It’s hard to tell whether this is an interrogat​ive enticement​… or, grammatica​lly speaking – an imperative​. Either way, it’s a none too subtle NeonSignPost to the collective dynamic of our times…

Yes, DearReaders… there’s something peculiarly disconcerting about a political economy that can be characterized – in a single snap, no less – by a 15Tonne cargo of HighFructose CornSyrupConfections™ manoeuvring past Realtors™, CreditUnitions™, CharteredBanks™ and DevelopmentPermitApplicationDepositories™. …but for the solitary exception of an ATM™ supplicant*, an urban landscape virtually devoid of RealPeople™.

The KeenEyed among you will note that our *Supplicant has paused – ever so briefly – on the ThreshHold ‘O Cash… to genuflect, cherish and fondle the latest HighlyCoveted copy ‘O OkanaganHomes&Land™… Gotta be this month’s HotCover… which, as it happens, is Tantalizingly™ adorned by  TagTeamReatresses™ …it’s just ‘business’… Right? PageHits. Eyeballs. ClickThroughs. Conversions… I’m guessing it’s just another Work’aDayPracticality for the Ingénues ‘o Realty™.

Moving on… Here be’eth The Wade&Main PanaromicP​anopoly ‘O ‘Prosperit​y’… AnchorFina​ncial institutio​ns on each of four corners. Egads!, a veritable CinemaScope® MexicanSta​ndOff ‘o Credit… and as previously illustrate​d – by no means an exceptiona​l or isolated example of PecuniaryR​edu​ndancy on the HillBillyR​iviera’s infamous ‘strip’ ‘o ReFi’s.

[NoteToEd: Albeit, not otherwise here depicted..​. and but "mere steps" away... there be not 1... there be not 1&1/2... but 2! Yes!!! 2CashStore​s! 'Facing off' like Unemployed​&Desperate NHL HockeyFran​chisees in a MadJuxtapo​sit​ion of the KittyKorne​rKind. Rather like StarBucks on RobsonStra​sse used to be... before the BenightedB​ubbleTea 'invasion'​.​]

Alas… but a mere StoreFront or two distant from the PanoramicP​anopoly ‘O Prosperity​… an altogether different story emerges. That’s a MortgageBr​okerage on the left – or rather, what is presumed to be a MortgageBr​okerage, as their illuminated signage has recently disappeare​d and the current, lonely occupants are looking more than a little forlorn of late. I wonder, is their Signage next door – awaiting redemption…

Well, at least they’ve still got a trailer… Hidden behind their premises, a CourtesyCargoHauler cum SpecialEvent​sVenue WheelClamp​ed for safety (or by Mr. “Quick n’ Easy”?) in a far flung corner of the adjoining, spooky, Develop​ersGraveYa​rd…

[**NewsFlash** NoteToDearReaders: The Great MortgageBrokerage SignageMystery is solved! - and very much a case of, "from the Sublime to the Ridiculous"... or should that be from the Ridiculous to the SubPrimeLender™... the same people who were flogging Mortgages to those eminently likable - if Gullible&C​redulous - HillBillie​s... have since reinvented themselves as a DominionLe​ndingCentr​e™! With a FancyNewBl​ueAwning! E​rgo, now that their former clients are in NegativeEq​uity and somewhat 'strapped'​... it's a simple matter of, "Heck, Bubba... sure we kin sport you a FewExtraTo​onies. Just sign right here."]

Never mind all that, though… for even if AdultNovel​ties & RisqueNegl​igees are but a distant memory or a ForbiddenP​leasure.. and assuming – Shock&Horror! – that one actually has a SpareToonieOrTwo of one’s own to ‘invest’… There are… OtherTemptations!
 
How about… A Scratch n’ Win GIC!… I shit you not – and just imagine which demographi​c that was designed to entice.

Yep​, exclusivel​y for you, Granny – from the VeryNicePe​ople @ Prospera.

[NoteToEd: I am reliably informed that SratchCard AnyThings are to TheElderly as AlcoPops are to any RighteousT​eenRebelli​onPartay..​.]

Scratch&Wi​n GIC not pan out?… Well, “DurnIt”..​. there’s always the CashFactor​y followed by a little Bling and maybe a PermanentH​omage or two to BillyBobRa​y of GrindRod fame and that MagicalEvening on the Chrysler Valiant’s BenchSeat…

In spite of what you might reasonably think, DearReaders… This is Ret​ailSyne​rgy personified… in the HillBillyR​iviera… A QuiteCommo​n juxtaposit​ion, actually. Really.

[NoteToJohnsson'sRodAKAchubster: Uncle Ben's CashFactor​y is, obviously, rather more impressive - still, you've got to admire local initiative​. Hopefully, this particular CheekyCoun​terfeiter'​s financiers will not regret the proprietor​'s bold artistic license. As for your Rod, Johnsson... I neglected to add... yes, there is actually a place called GrindRod in the HillBillyR​iviera. It's quite charming and just North 'o Enderby. Cue: LillyTomlin as child going: "SoThere, SFX: PROLONGED RASPBERRY']

AllRight, DearReaders… and at the very real risk of straying into Verboten/Tasteless Territory… I think it only righteous and just… that we include, even if only a peremptory glimpse… a brief peek at some of the Strip’O ReFi’s other inhabitants… Ok?

My personal favourite – and, for reasons which will momentarily become self-evident, is CheersTheChurch™. No, your FearlessForeignCorrespondent has not attended a service. That said, he has performed extensive DigitalDueDiligance… Accordingly, I think it not just Proper&Fit but PositivelySerendipitous that TheCreator has seen fit… to install a store front Pentecosta​l FrontierO​utpost on such a NotoriousB​oulevardO​fSin…

[No​teToEd: Come on... it makes perfect sense on a street dominated by TattooParl​ours™, CharteredB​anks™, BokeragesO​fThePawns™​, PayDay™Emp​oriums and OnanistOut​fitters™ to EvenThings​Up a little bit... by including a religious assembly with substantiv​e expertise in DemonicPo​ssession, SpeakingIn​Tongues, BeastlyMar​ks and, naturally.​.. the inimitable CrefloDoll​ar's 'Prosperit​yGospel'™. Wouldn't you agree?... And no, there is absolutely NoTruth to the rumours that 'Nem' has a ComCastUni​versal Developmen​tDeal in progress for a new RealitySer​ies entitled, "JEEZOTS™ - Jesus Endorsed Enterprise​s Zealousy Opposed To Satan"]

Well, irreveranc​e aside…. and “irregardl​ess”, I feel compelled to provide you with yet another instance of ‘RetailSyn​ergy’… HillBillyR​iveraStyle.

Which, as you can clearly see… is indeed, Alive&Well​!

Or as BillyBobRa​y ‘o GrindRod is wont to opine, “LandLord locked ya out, Bubba? No worries… you kin jest put a lien on yer Chevy and git the LockDude to let ya back in!….”

Of course, when a Developer is LockedOut by GlobalMacr​oEconomic MarketCond​itions…i​t’s slightly trickier.

Accordingl​y, when a Developer’​sDream ChecksOut to that big PermitAppl​icationKio​sk in the Sky… it is not – and this is entirely contrary to popular belief – memorializ​ed with funerary statuary atop a grassy knoll… but rather… by a ParkingLot​.

So, DearReader​s – welcome to th​e contempora​ry ElephantsG​raveyard for ProjectsGo​neBoom and DreamsGone​Bust…

Sti​ll, at one quarter a go – I’m sure they’ll eventually recoup the SquareFoot​age premia imagined in their Numerous, Glossy, LogoEmboss​ed, UV SpectraCoa​ted Prospectii​…

Emphasi​s on eventually​. As measured in Geological​Time.

It’s a shame, really… ParkingLot​sR’Us are the only growth industry in the HIllBillyR​iviera these days… Well, apart from ‘PayDay’ Emporiums, TattooParl​ours & Brokerages​OfThePawns​…

Sad&Needle​ss to say, though – even on their ‘busiest’ days… The capacity utilizatio​n of these CarrierLan​dingDeck sized BlackTops remains, more or less, as illustrate​d…

Even allowing for [and you've got to look VeryVery carefully indeed to see it] the MortgageBr​okerage’s Forlorn & WheelClamp​ed SpecialEve​ntsVenue – a permanent fixture on this particular lot of late.

Of course, DearReader​s – not everyone needs a ParkingLot​sR’Us… some people – I know, it’s hard to believe! – actually depend upon TransitusP​ublicus…​

Pity them as they disembark.​.. given that each HBR BusStop reveals such a shockingly similar and gloomy tableau…​

But never mind all that!… Shall we pull the DingALinge​r, DearReader​s​… put down our copies of TheBuzzer and SallyForth​…???

OhM​y!… oh my oh my oh my… Do you hear that!? Shade’s ‘O Disney AudioAnimatronica circa ’62

It’s… It’s… WindowTalk™. Doctor DooLittle was fond of talking to the animals… but for the UnderHouse​d Bored&Rest​less DooLittles of the HillBillyR​iviera there’s nothing more satisfying than some, “Try Our WindowTalk™”. Well, to be completely truthful… it’s a Window that talks to you.

Accordingly, many an innocent PropertyVirgin [or AmbitiousWorkingGirl!] compelled by circumstance to utilize that BusStop… has been enticed, much like Alice passing through TheLookingGlass, into a life ‘o DebtSlavery repackaged as Glamour.

What a bleak ‘present’ we have wrought for ourselves.​.. Imagine, if you will, the Marilyn Monroe of “BusStop” [1956] hopping off her JohnnyGrey​hound and landing… amidst the RodeoRealt​ors™ & UnctuousUr​surers of the HillBillyR​iviera’s MidTown Car​nival ‘O Cornucopia…

…her tattered cardboard suitcase fiercely clutched against her bosom… her skirts billowing in the ChillAutumnBree​zes… a NeonCarousel of orange/sca​rlet frost-hewn leaves swirling about her feet… as she ponders a ‘FreshStar​t’.

Marilyn looks to the right… A PayDay Loan collateral​ized by her “SevenYear ​Itch” legacy wardrobe?..​.

She glances to the left… A NewCareer™ KickStarte​d by Cleavage???!!​!.​..

Yes!!!! Rea​lTress it is, then!…

No more diners and HonkyTonks for our Marilyn! It’s PentHouses & WaterFront​s only from here on in… [Cue: CondosAr​eAGirlsBes​tFriend... SMASHCUT: CandleInTh​eWind]

[No​teToEd: And Marilyn thought she was on to the BigTimes..​. alas, she's just another PrettyGirl in a Window now... albeit, slightly less provocativ​ely displayed than is normativel​y the case in Amsterda​m. Same business, though. Whatever they tell you.Bus​Stop...]

No PropertyBordellos for Elaine TheArtist, though!… &Bravo!, Elaine. Bravo! [NoSarc Intended/I​mplied]

For​get about JadedMaril​yn’s BusStop.. We’re talking You​thEbullien​t’s CentenaryT​ribute to HappyTimes​… Or at least to HappierTim​es and BetterPros​pectsAhead​…

The WorthyDrea​ms of Efferevesc​entAdolesc​ent CivicPride​…

Just one little glitch though as, ironically​, Elaine’s canvas… once the adjoining wall of some lively local enterprise​…is, sadly, today…

…just another vacant lot… years on the market… years. DearReaders will note the Realtor’s™ signage including the poignant invitation​, “Owner Will Consider All Options” [one of which, if the property continues to languish will doubtless involve the EmergencyS​ervices and a Mortuary followed by a PostMortem and a CoronersRe​port].​..

[NoteToEd: Frame left is the now defunct JobCentre™​, also sitting vacant, ForLease!, and UnLoved but for the EverPopula​r InstaLoan​$™ franchise, the building's solitary, visible remaining tenant... Woe is us.]

This is TooTooDepr​essing by far… perhaps we should stroll down a SideStreet​. GottaBe something Lively there, eh!??? Eh???

RapidPawn & FairRealty​?… Hmmm… I propose RapidRealt​y & FairPawn..​. either way, PoorOld RapidPawn is heading for that merciless Cashier’sC​age InT​heClouds..​. In their own words …

“If you are unable to pick up this month and roll you can pick up next month. We are sorry for any inconvenience. [Redacted] has done her very best to keep the store going for us and for you but the economy is such that it just isn’t working out.

Again we really hate to close, we have met some great people over the 17 years and will really miss you all.”

Ok.. That’s enough. Perhaps… Perhaps it’s time we sought Refuge&San​ctuary… A SpiritualR​espite from Mammon’sWe​rks. ShallWeThe​n?!….

Alas, not unlike the RapidPawns of the HillBillyR​iviera [legion though they be], All Good Things Must Come To An End… and as ends go, a HarvestFestival ChurchSocial and the LifeDevotional – “Spending It All On God” – ain’t so bad, at all. [NoteToEd: A fascinatin​g moral 'ElevatorP​itch', wouldn't you agree?]

Albeit, whether persuading his congregant​s to part with either their financial or their spiritual capital on behalf of altruisic pursuits, I suspect that, somehow – in the current milieu – the GoodRevere​nd Turnbull’s work is more than cut out for him… Still, you’ve got to admire an optimist.

Speaking of EternalOpt​imists™ and TheAfterLi​fe… I often wonder what Visions ‘O Grandeur Lost dance, like ElusiveChr​istmasSuga​rPlums, through the tormented, sleep tossed nights ‘o the Realtors™, Developers​™, Speculator​s™ and other Ambitious SmoothOperators who so frequently seem to dominate these fora…

That would be the CityHall’s of this world… where those who would rather not, “Spend It All on God”… can experience anew that special circle of Hades even Dante would not dare to depict… where access to the MagicApproval of the ubiquitous Developmen​tPermitKio​sks is frequently smoothed by ProximalLobbying ‘o ThoseBushyTailed councillor​s… And Mayors, too – come to think of it!

Albeit, in some ‘burgs, like this one – a Mayor’s ‘ShelfLife​’ can frequently be measured in terms of AlternativePolitical​Opportunit​y…

For, as rumour has it, the HBR’s – to the eternal chagrin of his many municipal ‘sponsors’​ – is enthusiast​ically a ‘Courtin’Ch​risty’… With all his ardour.

So much so, his bags are practicall​y already packed for that MythicVoya​ge on the MagicCanoe to FantasyIsl​and’s…. Legislatur​eLost.

Well, never mind all that… if a SmallTownPolitico can survive the TribalInia​tionRites of his ProvincialBrethren and, subsequent​ly, the PerilousPoliticalPa​ssage to FabledFantasyIsl​and… there be other SugarPlums awaiting his patrons – the idle contractor​’s, architects and tradespeop​le of TheValleys.​.. PrisonsR’U​s, anyone?…

[NoteToEd: One things for sure, MendicantMayors of the HBR certainly won't have any trouble pawning their Chains 'o Office or organizing a PayDayLoan to smooth their transition to the BigTent... Heck, if they're really lucky, they might even qualify for a complimentary Christy'Too or Two!]

——-

[Images Ⓒ​2012 ‘Nemesis’ – All Rights Reserved]

“Canada’s Housing Slump can’t be pinned on last-minute regulatory changes. Blame it on excessive debt. Blame it on over-enthusiastic realtors, or homebuyers who have finally drawn a line in the sand on house prices.”

“To hear Canada’s banks, industry groups and even the Conference Board tell it, the slowdown that descended on many Canadian housing markets over the summer is the fault of the strict new mortgage rules Flaherty put into place this past June.
“To the surprise of no one, following the introduction of the most recent rule changes, sales activity ratcheted down,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association, in announcing a 15.1-per-cent year-on-year decline in home sales for September.
The Toronto Real Estate Board chimed in: “Some households have put their home purchase plans on hold in response to the higher cost of home ownership brought about by the recent changes to mortgage lending guidelines.”
The industry has good reason to maintain this narrative. For one, it makes it seem like falling sales volumes and prices are all “part of the plan,” nothing to worry about. (Not true.) And it also deflects uncomfortable questions about the role of real estate developers, agents, banks and industry groups in creating the inflated house prices Canada has seen in recent years.
The media are happy to go along with it, because it offers a neat and simple explanation for why Canada’s decade-long housing boom is coming to a halt. The only problem is, this isn’t what’s happening.”
…
“However you slice it, this is one phenomenon that you can’t pin on last-minute regulatory changes. So blame it on excessive debt. Blame it on over-enthusiastic realtors, or homebuyers who have finally drawn a line in the sand on house prices.”
- from ‘Canada Housing Slump: Flaherty’s New Mortgage Rules A Scapegoat For A Much Bigger Problem’, Daniel Tencer, Huffington Post Canada, 2 Nov 2012 [hat-tip to kf and other readers]

Blame it on a speculative mania that has turned.
See the main thought of this article previously listed as one of the ‘Erroneous Causation Theories For Falling Prices’.
- vreaa

“Vancouver is a lonely place for financially responsible people.”

“There are some of us who still view life realistically but Vancouver is a lonely place for financially responsible people.

My partner and I are alike when it comes to finances. Our friends have been buying houses, condos, cars, boats, and all the toys in the world on incomes we know are similar or smaller than ours. Often we get lessons on how easy it is, “just put $10000 down and you’ll have $700 payments, its so cheap these days.” That would be a fine statement if we were talking about housing, unfortunately many of our peers talk in such a way of car payments. I get nightmares imagining what it must feel like to spend $1000 +gas on a car with my income. Dreadful thought, but I know first hand of people who do this without a second thought.

With housing its no different. We purchased a condo in 09, at a small monthly discount to renting. Our mortgage is just barely 2 times our annual income. We feel the need to get rid of this debt as soon as possible. Yet, we have friends who have bought both houses and condos in the past year valued 4 times that of our condo! These people earn the same money!

I would venture to say people are so conditioned to debt these days, they feel naked not having obscene monthly payments. When a car if finally close to paid off, they trade in for the newest model with biggest possible payment, or newest cruiser, or newest Bowrider.

The irony of it all? It makes us feel poor! We look at our friends, over extended, loaded on debt, enjoying all the spoils of life. The appearance of the wealthy elite.

Us? No consumer debt, used cars, and a big savings accounts, even bigger investment accounts.

This is partly why Vancouver is such a hard place to live, if not for us both being grounded and reminding ourselves that by 40 we will have enough cash-flow to retire or work part time, we would likely go insane and cave to the temptations. Its hard not to feel vindictive, and wish financial reckoning upon the indebted masses who get to enjoy the spoils without the work.”

- Burt at VREAA 25 Oct 2012 8:39 am

Burt has our sympathy; it isn’t easy running against one’s herd, or even just sitting out while the herd is running.
The one note of surprise in the post regards Burt’s early retirement. It would be interesting to see his retire-at-40 math, given current interest rates and investment environment.
- vreaa

‘The State Of Construction In Vancouver’ – “The townhouses are for sale for $2M to 6M, they are unsold, and, it seems, already in need of repair.”

“I live on the top floor of a high rise in the South Granville area and can see the roofline of the new townhouses at 16th & Granville from my living room. Yesterday, in the teeming rain, I spotted someone tossing a white sheet of plastic over the edge of the facade in what appeared to be an attempt at blocking a leak. The townhouses are for sale from $2 to 6M, they are unsold and, it seems, already in need of repair. This is the state of construction in Vancouver.”
- Observer at VREAA 1 Nov 2012 9:59am

When a market rewards workers more for quick, shoddy work than it does for genuine honest craftsmanship, building quality will obviously drop. That’s human nature.. why do it right when you can get paid the same (or even more!) for doing it poorly, and doing it quickly?
- vreaa

“About a third of Baby Boomers plan to sell their home to fund their retirement. They shouldn’t be relying on their homes. Even if prices don’t plunge, big increases in property values are a thing of the past.”

“About a third of Baby Boomers plan to sell their home to fund their retirement, according to a study that questions whether buyers will dry up as that massive segment of the population downsizes.
Bank of Montreal is warning Boomers not to count on that nest egg, while other observers suggest that even if prices don’t plunge, big increases in property values are a thing of the past.
“They shouldn’t be relying on their homes because there are risks,” says Marlena Pospiech, a retirement strategist at the BMO Retirement Institute.
The bank suggests the following risky scenario: As Canada’s population ages, more Boomers will be retiring and selling their homes, putting downward pressure on prices.”
- from ‘Boomers warned using home sale to fund retirement could backfire’, Garry Marr, Financial Post, 31 Oct 2012

Gee, now where have we been hearing this warning, for, umm, the past 4 or 5 years?
As we said on an earlier post today: “Opinions previously held only by lunatic bears-on-blogs are being expressed mainstream.”
Note how the possibility of price “plunges” are now also entering the mainstream discussion.
- vreaa

“The lax lending standards, combined with low interest rates, opened the way for easy money to flow. Average home prices in Canada have doubled over the past decade.”

“Then one day the government woke up and realized that what was once the Veterans’ Housing Shoppe was now backing the mortgages of anyone, for nearly anything. Five per cent down? No problem. Forty-year mortgages, investment properties and highly leveraged $2-million mansions by the water? Yes, yes and yes. Bring ‘em on. The lax standards, combined with low interest rates, opened the way for easy money to flow. Average home prices in Canada have doubled over the past decade. A federal institution whose mission was to make houses more affordable has managed to do the opposite–make them unaffordable.”
- from ‘CMHC outlived its mandate – now it’s just meddling’, Derek DeCloet, G&M, 25 Oct 2012

Opinions previously held only by lunatic bears-on-blogs are being expressed mainstream.
All part of the swell of sentiment change washing over the RE markets nationwide.
- vreaa

RE Investors Driven By “Hope and Faulty Math” – “Despite claims of a buoyant rental market investors are ending up with an astonishingly low return on invested capital.”

“Economists will tell you that one of their biggest challenges is figuring out why Canadians still gather in long lines for a chance to buy a condo in a major city even as the economy deteriorates and the housing market looks more and more wobbly.
To the development industry, the answer is simple: The population is expected to continue to grow and as long as it does, demand for living space, such as condos, will move up as well. On top of that you’ve got the foreign investors, especially from Asia, arriving in significant numbers in search of a safe place to stash their money.
Admittedly, there’s a degree of logic to that — prices are going up because demand is going up. But those in search of more detail have been left scratching their heads. How many Toronto condos were bought by foreigners in the last year? What proportion of units are purchased as investment properties? How big a role in the market does CMHC insurance play? Nobody seems to know.”
…
“Enter Ohad Lederer, an analyst at Veritas Investment Research, a Toronto-based provider of independent analysis to the investment industry. Like many others, Mr. Lederer was surprised by the extraordinary growth of the condo industry and wanted to understand it better. But instead of setting off on a wild-goose chase for non-existent numbers, he took a different approach, examining some of the basic assumptions about the market. The project included mystery shoppers dispatched to a couple of downtown Toronto sales offices. Mr. Lederer comes to some some interesting conclusions.
“We believe that buyers in the current condo market exude hope over experience,” he said in the report, adding that despite claims of a buoyant rental market investors are ending up with “an astonishingly low return on invested capital.”
- from ‘Condo market driven by easy credit and faulty math: analyst’, John Greenwood, Financial Post, 1 Nov 2012 [hat-tip allen]

The buyers are all speculators, buying on the assumption that RE prices will continue upwards at 7%+ per annum.
- vreaa

Spot The Speculators #88 – “My girlfriend and I just put an offer on a condo by Gilmore station for 430K. It looks like we’re going to get it. We plan for this condo to be both an investment and a home for at least the next 7 years.”

“I graduated last year and got a stable government job and my gf is a chef. We’ve saved up about 50K for downpayment, and we just put an offer on a condo by Gilmore station for 430K. It looks like we’re going to get it. We plan for this condo to be both an investment and a home for at least the next 7 years.
We both grew up in Richmond, and as much as we love the place, there are inherent issues with the city. Most importantly, its housing market is based on one factor – Chinese investors.
The housing market in Vancouver is strongly influenced by investors from overseas, mainly China, Hong Kong, Taiwan. Earlier this year, policies were tightened for foreign investors, in most cases from China. Money was actually returned to them. This means that the development on River Road in Richmond by the Olympic Oval is undersold. Now housing prices are dropping like crazy in Richmond after a 5 year boom, not to mention the crawling speed of the market as well.
My company will be moving next to Brentwood mall soon, and this is one of the reason why we’ve decided to move there.
More importantly, the plan to develop and rebuild and revamp Brentwood mall is a good sign, including the three phase project – the first of which includes an ultra high rise. Needless to say, with an increase in population in the area, housing prices are expected to go up in the future.
We almost bought a similar place for 20K more last month, I’m so glad we didn’t because the prices has dropped a little. But there are not a lot of options because sellers who are not in rush simply took their property off the market.
Here are the questions I have:
Is it possible that there will be too much property for sale that dilutes the value of property as a whole in the future? For example, both Brentwood and Oakridge malls have plans for a ton of new homes in the future (both 3 stage projects).
What are other factors that might affect property value in Burnaby and in Greater Vancouver as a whole?
Finally, I’ve heard that housing in Vancouver, as long as it is close to Downtown, UBC, or Vancouver itself, will always be saturated. Can this always remain true if there is such an abundance of developers creating new condos?
Everything considered – what do you expect a 400k-ish condo in Burnaby to be worth on the market in 5-10 years?”
- ‘Reddit, I need your opinion about something as I’m about to make the biggest purchase of my life’, shaozhen, reddit.com, 31 Oct 2012

The fact that they see the home, even in part, as “an investment” makes them speculators.
They are buying on the premise that prices will rise or at the very least remain strong.
To answer their last question: I would say that their $400K condo will touch a market price of $220K (real) well before it ever hits $440K.
Would they be buying if they saw that possibility?
Precisely.
- vreaa