“Where I work close to Richmond I was stunned at the amount of commercial real estate available. For example, a 143,000 square foot building previously occupied by Kodak. I don’t know who thinks this is a great time to get involved in a major purchase after seeing the sheer volume of “For Lease” signs…”
- Prepmonkey at greaterfool.ca 18 Jul 2012 10:35pm
Most Recent Comments:
- Thai Canuck on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing) on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- Alexcanuck on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- Alexcanuck on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- Real Estate Tsunami on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing) on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing) on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- bubbly on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- ling on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- Toby on “The bank encouraged her to take the equity in her home to purchase another home. She bought a 2nd home at the peak.”
- Nemesis on ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- Raspberry ketone on Commit Crime To Buy A House
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- Uncategorized (176)
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- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
- 08 Canada Bubble
- 09 Rob Chipman's blog
- 10 YatterMatters
- 11 condohype [retired; archives available]
- 12 vancouver (un)real estate
- 13 Agent Will's Stats [retired]
- 14 Landlord Rescue
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- 16 Canadian Housing Price Charts
- 17 Hoodsurf [retired Jun 2011]
- 18 World Housing Bubble
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- 20 North American Economics
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Latest Anecdotes:
- ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- “The bank encouraged her to take the equity in her home to purchase another home. She bought a 2nd home at the peak.”
- “Let’s remember how we got here” – Looser and Looser CMHC Limits
- Don’t Worry, I’m Sure Somebody Will Sort This All Out – “Policymakers now know better and will be a lot more proactive in preventing a collapse.”
- “Things have changed, we are not doing that type of mortgage. We are not interested at all.”
- “We are noticing our target type of housing in price decline, albeit slow, as our money increases in value, slowly as well but outpacing housing.”
- Renter Buys In West Van – “For a few hundred more per month, you could own the place. Which is what I will be doing as my offer for a place down the street has been accepted. There is some value in staying in one place.”
- A Bed in the Bathroom, Why Not? [Let Us Count The Reasons...]
- “My husband and kids are pretty happy in our rental house within cycling distance of work that we could never have afforded otherwise. We’re doin’ pretty dang well, thank you, for median income earners in this expensive city.”
- “I Wish Them Bad Luck.” – Jim Flaherty, on those who wish to profit from Canadian RE price drops
- “We asked why he doesn’t just rent the whole house. He said he can’t, it wouldn’t cover his mortgage – he’ll get more to rent it out as two suites. These new landlords are hilarious, thinking that rent will cover their mortgage!”
- “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
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- 'Doomed'? - "Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real… 17 hours ago
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Anecdotes Banks Bears blogs British Columbia Bubble Bulls buyers Canada Capitulation China CMHC Construction Debt Economy Employment Fear Foreign buyers Fundamentals Government Housing Interest Rates Landlords Life Media Mortgage brokers Okanagan Olympics Ownership Prediction Real Estate Realtors Relationships Rent Retirement RE_ATM sellers Sentiment Speculators Toronto US Vancouver Victoria Visual Anecdote Whistler
Not only Richmond, I noticed this last year when I went to Annacis Island to visit a client. All these huge manufacturing buildings, empty, with For Lease signs out front. Sad to think that our economy no longer supports fabricating things (except lies about real estate of course), What will be left of our economy when the real estate boom goes bust?
“What will be left of our economy when the real estate boom goes bust?”
RazorWire.
http://vreaa.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/101.jpg
In this particular anecdote it appears “close to Richmond” is Annacis Island.
Also of note, BC is adding record manufacturing jobs according to statscan: 35,000 more “manufacturing” jobs than a year ago. So all that supposedly vacant commercial space is probably filled.
I don’t know much about StatsCan’s methodology or occupational taxonomy… But if they’re working from the same template that UncleSam’s BLS uses…
…”In 2004, then-President George W. Bush’s annual Economic Report of the President yielded similar questions about job classification when it appeared to recategorize fast-food positions as manufacturing jobs.”…
[ColoradoObserver] – House Panel Probes Integrity of Obama Green Jobs Estimates
http://tinyurl.com/6ucszbo
I can’t find this stats can report. Link?
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120706/dq120706a-eng.htm see report at bottom of page.
Manufacturing jobs?
Yep, manufacturing windows, siding, shingles, furniture, laminate flooring, stainless steel sinks, staircases, doors, decks and the list goes on.
Oh. Of course. Hey wait a minute… You mean these guys?…
http://vreaa.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/111.jpg
Maybe the reclassified Realtors. No doubt they need to manufacture some sales these days.
It’s an old, if all too frequently successful, trick, Dr. J… As we well know… This one is my favourite..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketchup_as_a_vegetable
I’m not sure how StatsCan/RevCan categorize slaves, Dr. J… I’m thinking NetNet, they’d would have to show up in the balance of trade somewhere – and for taxation purposes they’re still treated as DepreciatingCapitalAssets, right? Right?…
Regardless… DearReaders, this morning’s news of life behind the RazorWire in PlantationRichmond was simply too too good not to share here/now… And, of course, it comes with your Friday…. Quote ‘O The Day!
“They treat us worse than dogs, actually. It seems like I come in slavery.” – Olando Milford of Jamaica, ‘Temporary Foreign Worker’ and Richmond BlueBerry Picker
[CBC] – Workers allege they’ve been cheated by B.C. farmer
…”A Richmond, B.C., blueberry farmer who has twice been cited for withholding farm workers’ pay is under investigation again, CBC News has learned. KNN Blueberries’ owner Kash Nijjer, faces the new complaints from two workers who want to know why Nijjer is still being allowed to bring foreign labour into the country to work on his farm.”…
http://tinyurl.com/77b8zht
[NoteToEd: Just wait until the RE Brokerages figure out this business model... I can see them now, "TemporaryForeignAgents" - with special licensing exemptions, natch...]
Bonus Quote ‘O The Day!!!
“It’s our responsibility to maximize the value of our assets.” – Vancouver Airport Authority representative Rebecca Catley
[G&M] – Airport’s mall plan angers authorities in Richmond
“As mall builders hunt desperately for space in the land-squeezed Lower Mainland, they’re alighting on controversial spots out of the reach of municipal planning. First, it was the Tsawwassen First Nation. Now, it’s the Vancouver International Airport, where politicians and planners are fuming over the airport authority’s plans to partner with London-based McArthurGlen in building a massive luxury outlet mall.”
http://tinyurl.com/7pad73x
[Einkaufen macht frei?]
This topic prompted me to link an article by Daniel Amerman, CFA, who breaks down the ‘missing economy’ and debt overhang. Though I can’t verify his figures, he does illuminate why economies in North America (specifically US) simply can’t meet growth rates based on consumption. A hole in purchasing is looming and we’ll see the full effects by 2020.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1342714183.php “Three Converging Factors May Slash Economic Growth By 71%”
The conclusion is linked to his own site.
I believe we are beginning to see the effects in Vancouver with a decrease in active buyers for RE and goods.