“Earlier in the year I mentioned a bull at my work, who knows about my bearish views asked my prediction for house prices for end of the year, to which I said 10% and he immediately bet me 100 dollars so I took it.
He came up to me fri and said looks like I might owe you 100, so we kind of got into theories about what is causing the recent declines and he believes it solely has to do with the global economic troubles, namely Europe.
He believes the uncertainty is causing people to slow down buying.
I go on to explain the exact same thing I told him a few months ago, locals over extending themselves and local incomes do not support prices and the recent mortgage rules magnify how sensitive locals economic health are.
But no he still believes what he believes and says I focus only on facts and not the “fuzzy things” his words, such as everyone wants to live here, no land, growing demand etc.
Sigh”
—
“(When he suggested the bet) he got so frustrated debating me that he basically said fine whats your prediction, I said 10%（which I thought was conservative) and he was the one who suggested we bet $100.
He was so sure of himself I think he thought I would have backed down after money was on the table and all the people listening to our conversation.
At the times he had a little group of bulls around him and they all thought I was crazy. Most of those bulls are in the bear camp now. Although I don’t believe they really know the extent of what is to come, they just parrot what they hear in the MSM currently and right now that is bearish news.
This is a smart guy too, and had sold in 08. I think he felt he lost out and never should have sold then because prices dropped but of course shot back up to new highs so he now believes Van RE is bulletproof.”
- 4SlicesofCheese at VREAA 8 Jul 2012 at 1:15am and 9:13am
Bets can be fun, and socially important (they often serve the purpose of modern day duels!), but, as we all know, that’s not where the real ‘betting’ is happening.
- vreaa
Offer double or nothing; another year, another 10% off!
If he still has any bull friends who want in I’ll take it.
Exactly my thoughts. Market trends are so much stronger than most people expect. Bears learned this the hard way
Is the bet written in words? You might lose because of the new hpi index.
pretty good story. The ages of the people would be appreciated.
Lovely comment – ” as we all know, that’s not where the real ‘betting’ is happening.”
Interesting that at least he knew he was betting the $100 (whatever he thought of the risk of loss), but that most people wouldn’t even think that they’ve made a bet on their homes with the value has been viewed as such a sure thing.
10%… OK maybe, but the year ain’t over yet. Don’t be countin’ those backyard chickens just yet, son.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/07/11/bc-bear-chicken-coop.html
Interesting article from page 15 of most recent Straight.
http://www.straight.com/article-729556/vancouver/expert-rips-mayors-report
interesting article Allen, i like how Kothari mentions Demographia’s report, which can be found, in part, at the link below, half way through the article. One must remember that the UN is in the business of applying techniques that fulfill global ambitions at Demographic Transition. In Vancouver, with its housing crisis you see the effects on a 45 year lag.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/07/Hmmm%20Jul%2008%202012.pdf
Hi Paul, thanks I’ll check it out.
My comment may be a bit off topic. I think this blog should also monitor China’s economic slowdown. I believe it should be indicative of the Vancouver RE market to some extent.
Not off-topic at all.
We agree there will be both direct and indirect effects of China’s RE collapse and broader economic slowdown on the Vancouver RE market.
You will see China mentioned on and off here. We don’t try to comprehensively monitor China’s economy, there are so many sites that do that better, and we couldn’t do it justice.
As an example of a good site (hat-tip jesse):
China Financial Markets (Michael Pettis’ blog.. “finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets.”)
http://www.mpettis.com/
Difficulty with monitoring China is real numbers are hard to come by. Someone needs to make the China Economic Anecdotal Archive.
if it helps, i monitor http://www.aastocks.com/en/Default.aspx in the evening, between 6pm and midnight. Plenty of news on HK and the gateway to the mainland. You could pull off 2 or 3 anecdotal notes on the China economy every day the market is open. If you want to dig deeper http://www.astrotheme.com/astrology/Hong_Kong_(China)
and
http://www.astrotheme.com/astrology/China
The China chart is remarkable. Saturn is peregrine in Virgo, in the 7th House, and Jupiter is in Capricorn in the 12 House.
http://slopeofhope.com/2012/07/chinas-downtrend-continues.html
“Data http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php released Thursday night shows a marked downtrend in place in China from 2010 on GDP, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, and from 2008 on Retail Sales, as shown on the graphs below. In fact, the numbers for Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales are lower than the lows in 2009.
“My only conclusion from these is that China has been in, and is still in, a period of contraction…there are no signs that China will lead the world out of a slowdown in growth.”
I read http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.ca everyday, it monitors China pretty good actually. And Australia and Canada.
I lost a bet (flight to Vegas) to a Realtor buddy saying that the market would be off 15% from the peak by Dec 31 2011… Timing was never my strong suit.