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- fosey's ape on Bank Of Canada Induced ‘Havoc’, Plus Bits & Pieces
- 4HitDisturber on In Case You Thought Our Bubble Was Due To Special Local Factors…
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- Whipmaster~kethwhack on Interest Rates Held Far Lower Than Necessary Cause Speculative Bubbles
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Type of Anecdote
- 01. He Said, She Said (248)
- 02. Profiting from the Boom (446)
- 03. Changed my Life (106)
- 04. Changed my Career (39)
- 05. Where do Buyers get the money? (987)
- 06. Held my Nose and Leapt (97)
- 07. Avoiding Vancouver (377)
- 08. Overextended Buyers (1,197)
- 09. Delaying Buying (316)
- 10. Demoralized Renters? (367)
- 11. Regrets about Investing in RE (417)
- 12. Effects of Development (276)
- 13. 2010 Olympics Related (74)
- 14. Social Effects of the Boom (1,262)
- 15. Misallocation of Resources (964)
- 16. Missed The Boat? (236)
- 17. The Froogle Scott Chronicles (27)
- 18. Spot The Speculator (171)
- 19. BlastRadiusPostCards (17)
- 20. The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength (70)
- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (44)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
- 24. Policies On Housing (11)
- 25. Epigrams For The Bubble (1)
- 26. Premature Calls Of "Bottom" (3)
- 27. Seller Panic (3)
- 28. Erroneous Causation Theories For Falling Prices (7)
- 29. Bubblespeak (1)
- Uncategorized (177)
- Bank Of Canada Induced ‘Havoc’, Plus Bits & Pieces
- In Case You Thought Our Bubble Was Due To Special Local Factors…
- Interest Rates Held Far Lower Than Necessary Cause Speculative Bubbles
- ‘A decade ago 40% of all purchasers in the States were first-timers. Today is it 27%. In Canada the number exceeds 50%, and is rising.’
- ‘Canada’s moment as an economic standout is over.’
- ‘The Extra Breadwinner In The Family’ – ‘Does your house make more than you?’
- ‘Extreme Speculation’ – “The problem is that the diversion of resources into investments that are only justified by the stream of new money and artificially low interest rates will destroy wealth at the same time as it is boosting activity.”
- “It won’t last. It just prepares the way for the bust. It forces out real businesses. And it drives out people who find themselves financially unable to live here any longer.”
- ‘Vancouver Affordable Housing Agency’ Created By The City
- Enter Inflation, Stage Right
- Average House Price In Canada Rose 7.1% YOY
- Vancouver School Trustees Threaten Risk Of Property Price Drops In Debate Concerning Rights Of Transgender High School Student
- House Painting
- Wage To House Price Ratio Is A Changin’
- No, Not Karl Marx; That Other Mark, Mark Carney – “Just as any revolution eats its children, unchecked market fundamentalism can devour the social capital essential for the long-term dynamism of capitalism itself.”
- The New Yorker – Vancouver RE As A ‘Hedge'; “Zombie Neighbourhoods”; “The rest of us better get used to being tenants”
- “On my block, there are three empty million-dollar houses. Property values are skyrocketing. It is a disaster for people who want to live in Vancouver.” – Charles Hou, retired social studies teacher
- Vancouverites have ten times the personal debt of people in the ‘debt capital of Britain’.
- ‘How badly would you be hurt in a housing market price correction?’ [The Globe and Mail]
- A Veterinarian’s Dilemma – “Living in a 300-square-foot closet, moving to northern B.C. or renting for life.”
- Vanc RE, No change – “..really mildish weather that’s very livable..”
- “No problemo. 69 per cent of the condo tower is pretty stable.”
- Still Dead
- BC Premier: “I think the market’s good, it’s a buyers market. I want to make sure I get in before prices start to rise.”
- “You’ll have to pry my cell-phone from my cold, dead hand….” [Off-topic, but irresistible]
- Mayor Robertson Selling His House
- “Nothing Wrong Here!”
- “We spoke to a friend of ours yesterday. Even though she has purchased a house, she wants to keep (and rent out) the condo she’s living in, because she thinks prices will only go up.”
- Families With Children Leave Vancouver – “We bought a townhouse in Port Moody in 2006, sold it in 2011 and bought a house. We couldn’t have done that in Vancouver. Absolutely not.”
- The Economist on Land Taxes – “Taxes on immovable property are the most growth-friendly of all major taxes.”
- “It’s kinda funny that 3 unrelated Irish blokes all said that this mess in Vancouver/Canada RE is unfolding EXACTLY like the mess did in Ireland, one headline at a time.”
- “I was really fortunate with how things worked out for me in real estate. I definitely took chances when I bought a few presale condos to flip back in 2004, but I was adamant at the time that there was room to grow for Vancouver.”
- Making Sense Of It All
- “I have been contacted by two of my realtor friends in the past week both proclaiming that the market is turning and that this is a good time to buy.”
- Trump on Vancouver – “Your people, they go to New York, they go all over the world, and they speak so highly.”
- ‘Canadians obsessed with real estate, poll suggests’ – “Just as many people reported talking about real estate on a regular basis as they did about hockey.”
- ‘Doomed’? – “Home prices in Canada are now double what they were in the 1970s in real terms. Historically, over the very long term, real home prices tend to be flat.”
- “The bank encouraged her to take the equity in her home to purchase another home. She bought a 2nd home at the peak.”
- “Let’s remember how we got here” – Looser and Looser CMHC Limits
- Don’t Worry, I’m Sure Somebody Will Sort This All Out – “Policymakers now know better and will be a lot more proactive in preventing a collapse.”
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Monthly Archives: July 2012
S&P Downgrade Outlook On Canadian Banks – “A prolonged run-up in housing prices and consumer indebtedness is contributing to growing imbalances, applying negative pressure on economic risk for banks.”
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has revised its outlook downwards on seven Canadian financial institutions, citing high housing prices and consumer debt.
“A prolonged run-up in housing prices and consumer indebtedness in Canada is in our view contributing to growing imbalances and Canada’s vulnerability to the generally weak global economy, applying negative pressure on economic risk for banks,” the rating agency stated in its decision. “Growing pressure on banks’ risk appetites and profitability arising from competition for loan and deposit market share could also lead to a deterioration in our view of industry risk.”
House prices have roughly doubled over the past decade while, relative to GDP, consumer debt has risen from about 70 per cent to more than 90 per cent, S&P pointed out. And it suggested that Ottawa’s actions have not done enough to stem what could be a significant problem for the economy. “Successive government efforts since 2008 to counteract the stimulative effect of low interest rates on consumer borrowing and home prices have done less than we expected to counteract the growing level of consumer leverage and housing market risk in Canada,” S&P said. The agency is now watching to see if the most recent moves that the government has made will have better results.
– from ‘S&P cuts outlook on 7 Canadian banks’, G&M, 27 Jul 2012
‘High-Volume Local Vancouver Realtor’ – “The appraisers told me they just don’t see the value in a lot of properties and want to make sure they do not over-value in view of an anticipated market correction.”
“As you are no doubt aware there has been a huge slowing in the market and predictions are that there will be a correction of approximately 25% on detached properties and up to 30% on condos. The other prediction is that we will not see any sort of recovery for another 2 years. How much of the above is true only time will tell. One thing I do know is that The Federal government has not helped by a) cancelling nearly 300,000 investor applicants who were already 2 years into their application process and b) Making it much harder to get a mortgage without proof of income and increasing the ratio of income to borrowing. This has directly affected the numbers of people looking to buy from outside our borders.
The other problem I have personally experienced is purchasers that bought properties I had listed have hit HUGE problems getting a mortgage, as banks would not appraise the property at what they paid for it even though it was sold on the MLS and in some cases at multiple offers! The appraisers told me they just don’t see the value in a lot of properties and want to make sure they do not over-value in view again of an anticipated market correction.
Good quality properties that are priced well are still selling and there have been some big sales, as you will see from my attached stats sheet. If you don’t have to sell then don’t, if you do then make sure you price it right, choose a Realtor who will promote it right and last but not least prepare now with photos, floor plans etc., so you can come to market as soon as there is a change – even if it is nominal.”
– this letter from a “high-volume local Vancouver realtor” posted by Simeon Garratt at his website allure.com 23 July 2012, in a post entitled ‘IS THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT KILLING VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE?’.
Simeon Garratt himself adds:
“I think that the Federal Government is directly curbing the growth in the real estate sector. Canada -Vancouver specifically- has been on the ‘hot spot’ radar of people from all over the globe. We have been ranked the best place to live, the safest place to live and have an economy that is second to none. A huge amount of our economy’s growth is based on our need to grow as a population. Currently, Canada’s population is dwindling and without the support of a strong immigration system, it will get worse.
I believe that if we focus on creating good quality jobs and giving young people quality education, we will attract higher salaries, bigger companies and housing prices will become less of a factor. It is common in most metropolis cities around the world to commute an hour to work. For some reason, we think we are the exception.”
1. The appraisers are to be commended for their caution: it is currently very hard to reconcile ‘price’ and ‘value’ for local properties.
2. We do not foresee local economic strength so powerful and so sustained that it raises local incomes such that RE prices make sense by that fundamental measure. Incomes would have to double or more for that to happen. Can you imagine that happening without mortgage rates rising?
3. We don’t know what Simeon Garratt means when he says “(we) have an economy that is second to none”, or “a huge amount of our economy’s growth is based on our need to grow as a population.” We see lots of signs that our economy is over-dependent on: the RE industry, industries directly related to RE, and the other temporary knock-on wealth effects of a speculative mania in RE.
600,000 square feet is to be dedicated to office space packed in around Rogers Arena and BC Place – “We have our work cut out for us to fill that space.”
“The city’s planning department, concerned about the loss of key office sites on Vancouver’s small downtown peninsula to the condo boom of the 1990s and 2000s, decided several years ago that the last bit of undeveloped former industrial land that was the site of Expo 86 – Northeast False Creek – should include 1.8 million square feet of commercial space.
Of that, 600,000 is to be dedicated to office or, as the planners call it, “job space,” packed in around Rogers Arena, the home of the Vancouver Canucks hockey team, and BC Place, the government-owned stadium where the B.C. Lions play football and Whitecaps play soccer.
That 600,000 square feet is the equivalent of a whole Park Place tower in Vancouver’s business district or the new PricewaterhouseCoopers tower on York Street in Toronto.
Now, landowners in that area are trying to figure out who they’ll get as tenants.
“We have our work cut out for us to fill that space,” says David Negrin, president of Aquilini Development, one division of the Aquilini family empire that includes the Canucks, Rogers Arena and a host of other businesses and development projects. “It’s just a tough location because it’s on the edge of the [central business district].”
– from ‘Canucks owners gamble on new office district in Vancouver’, Globe and Mail, 30 Jul 2012
“We will buy a house in Spain in 2014. We would be happy to pay $150K Canadian for a detatched Villa with Ocean views and a pool. I have to disagree with the predictions for a housing crash here in Vancouver.”
“I’m waiting to buy a house in Spain. A country house 5 to 20 K away from the drab concrete settings of the coast. I used to live in Gibraltar in the mid 80s when the Costa Del Sol was pretty much sand dunes and an acre of waterfront was $40,000.
We will buy in 2014 which is when we would be happy to pay $150K Canadian for a detatched Villa with Ocean views and a pool. I have no idea if the market would be at the bottom then but that is one hell of a deal and we would be very happy to purchase at that price. We have duel Citizenship .
I have to disagree with the comments about a housing crash here in Vancouver.
It’s pretty solid on all fronts. There may be a level or even a 10% correction but there will be no crash.
I used to think there would be a crash (since 2004) but after much thought I became aware that as crappy as Vancouver is during the winter etc its still the warmest and most interesting place in the entire country to live. Our banking system is tight. Commodities + resources are in abundance.
Canada is rocking on the business front as is evident in the real estate prices across the country. If you have cash its a very safe country to bring your treasure to.
It’s just not comparable to Spains economic woes and the parallel is stretching it a bit.”
– comment by ‘a different fred’* at VREAA 29 Jul 2012 3:50pm [*'fred' is not the same fred who posts many trollish comments. ed.]
Vancouver RE Discussed On CBC, Again – “Patti Croft recommends cashing out and is thinking about it herself”; “Patricia Croft kept insisting Canada would be the *only* country to engineer a soft landing in real estate.”
1. “Anyone else catch The House on CBC radio this morning [14 Jun 2012]? Tsur Somerville [UBC Sauder School Of Business RE economist] and Patti Croft [Bay Street analyst], mostly falling over one another with the usual “not-a-bubble”, but with some pretty bearish sentiment lurking beneath the conciliatory tones (considering the sources):
– Nationally speaking, they see a 10-15% overvaluation.
– They openly admit that this national number is mostly be driven by Vancouver and Toronto, implying enough overvaluation there to significantly sway national numbers.
– Patti recommends cashing out and is thinking about it herself.
– Tsur seems to have given up on recommending metrics and now suggests “if you like it, buy it”.
– Even though there’s no bubble, Canada will earn a feather in its cap by successfully engineering a soft landing.
Also, apparently you now need 50% overvaluation to have a national bubble.”
– Many Franks at VCI 14 Jul 2012 11:28am
2. The CBC financial roundtable discussion on The National [CBC TV] last night focussed heavily on debt. The same four folks appeared that were there last time. Patricia Croft kept insisting Canada would be the *only* country to engineer a soft landing in real estate. She said it twice.
– Dr. Nick Riveria, VCI, 25 Jul 2012 10:22pm