- chart care of b5baxter at VCI, 31 May 2012, who adds “Inventory has reached another milestone. It is at the highest point in the past ten years for this time of year. It has also passed the 2010 peak for the year. Only 2008 peaked higher out of the last ten years.”
- chart care of Larry Yatkowsky at yattermatters, 1 Jun 2012, who adds “Vancouver’s detached average home prices continued a slow retreat from February’s high of $1,235,244 receding to a current average price of $1,073,331 down 12% YOY. Two years of gains are on the block as this market approaches the low not seen since November 2010 when the average was $1,043,161.
…Active listings are at an all time high… up 23% YOY,… with sales down 24% YOY…”.
“Vancouver’s real estate market has taken another interesting turn, with listings up and sales down during what is usually a busy time of year.
In May, average prices for houses have dropped about $150,000 compared to one year ago. That 12-per-cent drop wiped out two years of price increases.
The reason appears to be that too many more sellers are trying to cash in at the same time. Listings are up by 23 per cent, but fewer are buying: sales are down 24 per cent.
“Probably, on average, about a 150 or 160 homes in Vancouver are reducing their price every day in the hope of catching, getting ahead of the train and maybe get out before they can’t,” said realtor Larry Yatkowsy.
Predictions of a bursting real estate bubble have swirled around the Vancouver market for years. Despite the indications, economist Tom Davidoff, of UBC’s Sauder School of Business thinks it’s too early to name it yet.
“It’s going to take several months of data-confirming of what we seem to be seeing before I would be anywhere close to be prepared to say, ‘That’s it, we had a bubble and now it’s bursting,’” Davidoff said.
- from ‘Uncertain fate for Vancouver real estate prices’, CBC News, 2 Jun 2012
The most straightforward way of explaining the evidence at hand (prices compared with fundamental measures such as income, rents or GDP; ownership levels; household debt levels; market price/inventory/sales action; etc.) is that Vancouver has suffered a lengthy speculative mania in housing, and that the bubble is now very likely in the early stages of collapsing.