“I had a work colleague approach me today to ask about buying a condo in New West. First it was interesting that it was a new project, marketed by Bob R. himself, but what was more interesting was how my colleague had no idea about the economics of ownership and real estate. We took the 600 sq ft unit she was looking at and calculated that over a 5 year period (Assuming this was a 5 year plan) the cost of ownership would be approximately $1,800 per month for interest, strata, taxes and then assuming a real estate commission / transaction costs at the end of 5 years. We assumed there would be no PPT as this was a low cost purchase for a first time buyer.
She was surprised to see it would be that much but $1,800 does not sound too expensive does it? So we did two things. Look at what you could rent for $1,800 and look what it would cost to rent the unit she was looking at.
For $1,800, she could rent a newer 1,100 sq ft unit in New West. That’s pretty much double the size she was going into.
Or – for $1,100, she could rent the unit she was looking at, or $700 per month less than owning.
What I said to her was this:
You can rent this for $700 per month less per month than owning ($8,400 per year) – After 5 years, you could save close to $50,000. That is the equity built from renting compared to owning. Or, you could spent the $1,800 you were going to spend anyway, and live in a much more expensive place. Either way, you are getting way more.
The math was really interesting to her as she is really quite young and never seen such numbers presented. To her however, it seemed pretty clear. At the end of 5 years, $50,000 of savings or, do you bet that that condo you buy is going to up by $50,000 in the next 5 years? Seemed clear to her.
The next day I saw her at lunch, surfing for new properties.”
- from ZRH2YVR via e-mail, 6 May 2012
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Latest Anecdotes:
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- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”

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Of course the usual post to a thread like this is often…..”well, with RE you are paying yourself……. because most people don’t have the discipline to save money”…..
The discipline is not required to save money per say, but to manage your cash flow regardless to ensure that you have $1,800 available each and every month for either the mortgage. or saving the difference after payoning one’s rent. So, it’s a red herring and typical RE bull argument which is easily debunked.
Of course, if you’ve gone this far with her already, the next step is to explain to her how much it is going to cost to access any of her “mythical” RE equity should that option be required, versus merely writing a cheque from savings, or by doing some internet banking when you’ve got the cash.
Now, don’t even try and talk about moving due to a job loss, or some other life changing event, and what that can actually cost a homedebtor in a down market……..obviosuly wiping out any of the “mythical” equity in her dreams, but in reality, trapping her to her a anchor and maybe even bankruptcy.
I don’t think my “Heavne’s Gate” cult comparison was that far off actually………Canadian RE today has the disasterous potential for financial suicide at it’s finest.
It is difficult to elucidate the reasons why buying should be cheaper than renting, not least because low probability high severity risks are difficult to quantify so are often ignored.
100 bucks says she comes back and tells you good news she decided to buy cause “she didn’t want to be paying someones mortgage”.
You should encourage her to buy! Life lessons are best learned young.
Besides, the more people sucked in the better…fewer potential purchasers later
For quicker results not buying is worse than buying
does that translate to not renting is worse than renting?
For quick results… no
I’ve had this conversation with a few people. Older people with little in the way of assets or savings who would be millionaires if they just sold their little house; young people who seem to understand that we are in a bubble but can’t understand why it would be bad to buy since they won’t be making some investor rich by paying off their mortgage. All you can do is give them the info and the rest is up to them.
mahatma! … roughly … freedom worth having must include the freedom to make mistakes
Quite. The CPC take their dogma from the best.
it’s self-consistent as long as you don’t expect others to pay your mistakes … i’m not cpc, btw, but i can see your pt where such parties might use that when convenient – ergo crony hypocrisy
I’m not affiliated with CPC either but the grassroots is definitely into self-determination but rounds it out with atonement. The perils of debt and its prescribed consequences predate some measures of time.
if forced to label, my brand of crazy = small govt republican/libertarian … no war, no fed, no income tax … probably grown philosophically incompatible with the maple kingdom in the past decade … anyway, it’s very popular among the young … because they’re getting screwed the worst and just want to get free … respet it’s easier for me to speak freely from outside, no need to answer … looks good up there – high of 57F and sun – have a nice day
Where I have worked apprenticeship — and this is not limited to the middle and lower classes — required a healthy demographic mix and the employees craved it. Maybe this is becoming broken in some older firms and institutions (and, for real estate, neighbourhoods?) but I’m a believer in creative destruction for those (‘hoods) that don’t adequately plan for generational crossover.
I lived in New West for 6 years, renting an apartment on 6th st and 7th av. The hardest thing to get used to, if I ever did, was the almost constant ambulance sirens. I don’t know what it’s like now. I had a pretty good view of the north side mountains on clear days. The cloud cover hangs onto that side of the lower mainland. Only a short distance away, South Surrey, it would be much brighter, and I would long for some of that weather in New West. Back in those days, 1996-2002, the member of Parliament was a Reform candidate, and the elections were very hotly contested. One day a person described to me that the New West riding resembled a clash of civilizations. The analogy today, if you were to describe the Lower Mainland as ‘Europe’, would be to suggest New West is Greece, falling partly under the umbrella of the slavic orthodoxy of Russia (ndp) partly under the influences of the Levant (liberal) and with one foot in the door to Western Europe (conservative)… The importance of Greece as a civilization pivot point was elucidation by Huntington and Kennedy in their civilizational studies many years ago. As to the importance of New West to the greater Lower Mainland… who knows? But try escaping the Greek financial austerity drama… Ha!… maybe if yo live in a cave, Plutonians
I just wrote an quick analysis on CMHC and Fannie/Freddie http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/05/comparing-canadas-cmhc-to-us.html if anyone is interested. I also try to clear up some rife oversimplification I frequently see regarding Fannie/Freddie.
Thanks AG.