“What has changed are expectations. They feel that the proximity to a really good Ethiopian restaurant should be the natural order of things.”


‘The Vancouver real estate market continues to soar.’

“When I moved to Vancouver 36 years ago, I blanched at the cost of housing. Buying a home inside the city was impossible.
It was marginally less so when my wife and I got married. But the houses we looked at came with big prices and small promise.
We had a family to raise. We moved to the suburbs.
We rented for eight years, raising our three kids in that time. It was only with the help of my in-laws that we could afford our first house, and then only after cashing in all our assets, including all our RRSPs. Then we borrowed big from the bank.
Ours was a typical middle-class story, and still is: help from the parents, an outward move, a mortgage.
And then as now, Vancouver’s real estate was unaffordable. Nothing in that regard has changed.”

“What has changed are expectations. There are those who feel that the lack of cheap housing in Vancouver is an abomination. They feel that the convenience of a short commute or the proximity to a really good Ethiopian restaurant should be the natural order of things.
That feeling is often expressed in tandem with a loathing for the suburbs, and for the cultural vacuum that, for them, the suburbs represent.
What has also changed is that these feelings have been politicized. They are now an Issue; witness the Mayor’s Task Force on Housing Affordability. And as an Issue, reasons that are ostensibly sociological in nature have been made to propel it.
Such as:
Affordable housing makes for healthier neighbourhoods. Affordable housing makes for more diversity. Affordable housing provides housing for middle-class families with children.
These reasons, it should be said, are also urban-centric.
That is, they continue to make the distinction between urban and suburban, as if the “real” city stops at the Vancouver border and the rest is overflow.”

“But that doesn’t apply any more, especially here. More than three-quarters of Metro Vancouver’s population growth is now taking place outside of Vancouver proper, and with that population growth has come more jobs and businesses than Vancouver has been able to produce lately.
It has also rejuvenated once-moribund suburban neighbourhoods. Even in my own neighbourhood in Delta, scores of young families have moved in, bought old-stock housing and updated it. Those young families have also brought with them more cosmopolitan tastes. The suburbs are filling up, and feeling less and less suburban with each passing year.
Conversely, in many respects, the city of Vancouver is feeling more and more like the suburbs. There’s been a steady conversion of industrial land into housing. The major growth in the downtown core has been in condominium construction. And the central political issue preoccupying Vancouverites is not jobs or taxes. It’s housing — the tension between densification and affordability. Vancouver has become its own bedroom community.”

“Vancouver, of course, will always be the centre of things in the Metro area. It has history and critical mass on its side.
And by its very nature, it is going to attract people who want to come here and live in the city.
But should that be a concern of government? Should there even be a task force? And can it have any effect on affordability?
I doubt it: without government subsidies, the market will propel any kind of property here into the stratosphere.”

“But task force member Michael Geller, who is both a developer and an adjunct professor with Simon Fraser University’s Centre for Sustainable Community Development, believes the task force could usher in a greater selection of housing types than what Vancouver has now.
“One of the more affordable forms of housing being built in Toronto, for example,” Geller said, “is stacked townhomes — a two-storey townhouse being built above another.”
Those Toronto townhouses, Geller said, start at $309,000. In Vancouver, Geller admits, they would be much more.
“There’s nothing that this task force can do to make Vancouver as inexpensive as Toronto or Edmonton. But I do believe it will mean changes in the processing of building permits, and in the wording of zoning bylaws that ultimately will lead to increased competition and more affordable housing choices.”
It would also mean densification.
Geller thinks there is an appetite for it; I’m not so sure.
University of B.C. professor Tsur Somerville, director of UBC’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, agreed with Geller that the task force could give rise to new forms of housing.
“But I haven’t seen anything,” Somerville said, “that won’t anger the neighbourhoods of the city that don’t want densification.”
As for affordability:
“The only thing that’s going to make housing in Vancouver cheaper,” he said, “is a collapse in housing prices.”
Hands up, you well-meaning social engineers, who want that.”

- this is the entire article from ‘McMartin: Affordable housing in Vancouver? Why bother?’, ‘Short commutes and easy access to an Ethiopian restaurant are not the natural order of things’, Peter McMartin, Vancouver Sun, 22 Mar 2012 [hat-tip space889]

This is yet another ‘straw-man’ opinion/column/argument.
To re-iterate: No credible critic or commentator that we are aware of is asking for anything for nothing.
People are pointing to the outrageous prices that are the product of a massive speculative mania in housing, and are saying that they aren’t prepared to overextend themselves for the ‘luxury’ of owning in this city.
They are not asking for free or cheap accommodation.
They are pointing to the dire social consequences of a housing bubble; to people leaving the city; to important professions avoiding it in the first place; to the social fabric being sorely tested by the misallocation of human resources that comes with a giant speculative mania.
It is not that ‘expectations’ have changed, it is that prices have ballooned disproportionately to any underlying fundamentals. Sommerville wasn’t making a serious prediction when he is quoted as saying that “a collapse in housing prices” would make housing in Vancouver cheaper, but this quip will turn out to be correct. What “social-engineers” may want is beside the point, what we’re going to get is a housing price implosion, regardless of policy.
By the way, we’d guess that the price:income housing ratios in Vancouver were very substantially lower for Peter McMartin 36 years ago, the ones he baulked at, than they are today. Exact numbers for 1976, anybody? We do know that the ratio has doubled in ten years, from 5.4 in 2001 to 11 in 2011 (source: BMO, 2011).
And the bit about “Ethiopian Restaurants” is an insult to all of those who have serious concerns about the Vancouver housing situation: It aims to make anybody with criticism of price levels appear elitist, and irrelevant, and silly; as if concern about housing prices is equivalent to wanting access to esoteric things like fancy exotic restaurants.
- vreaa


- BMO, 2011


- theeconomicanalyst.com

Afterimage:

‘Sun columnist Pete McMartin gets a mud-pack at a spa. And loves it.’
- Vancouver Sun, 5 Jan 2010, the third item that comes up when you google: “peter mcmartin” vancouver.

97 Responses to “What has changed are expectations. They feel that the proximity to a really good Ethiopian restaurant should be the natural order of things.”

  1. CanuckDownUnder

    You’re not alone Vancouverites. Look at this horseshit passing as journalism in Sydney:

    http://media.smh.com.au/property/domain/surge-in-firsthome-buyers-3157632.html

    “Maybe it’s time you bit the bullet and joined the club.”

    A real journalist might look at rent/price ratios and question just how high rents really are but we won’t bother going there.

  2. Basement Suite

    “The only thing that’s going to make housing in Vancouver cheaper,” he said, “is a collapse in housing prices.”
    Hands up, you well-meaning social engineers, who want that.”

    Get off your high horse, Vancouverite. Remember when “millionaire” meant something, back before the era of sub 3% mortgages? Today when all you can get for a million dollars is an old reno in the east van ghetto, or a “character house” (read: utter teardown) in west van, you’re damn right we need a “collapse” in housing. I prefer to call it a CORRECTION. For a million bucks you can get a mansion in many decent US cities, or a crack shack in east Vancouver. My hand is raised, prices do need to “collapse” here, or else the US bubble needs to re-inflate, because the ways things are now I for one am not retiring in this shytehole, and only my career makes it a little hard (but certainly not impossible and not ruled out) to leave a lot sooner. Others are leaving, we keep hearing. MANY others are not coming here, that’s the easiest move of all, to NOT move here at all if you have options. Can you blame them, how stupid would a professional have to be to go to the effort to move here if there were any other choice? “Well professor, you can come work at UBC where a crack shack costs a million bucks and salaries are lower, or you can go to city B where salaries are much higher and housing a quarter the cost, so what do you think? What’s that professor, you decline our offer!? But what about our mountains (surely we’re the only city on Earth with mountains), our (freezing cold) ocean, our (rocky) beaches, our traffic jams, our riots, and… hmm. Point taken professor, hey, are you guys hiring?”

  3. So what are McMartin’s kids going to do? He should have asked them before he wrote this. That and Google. There’s a whole world of information outside of Delta cul-de-sacs.

    • He should ask Ladner’s kids.

      What was it that was stated, the only way to buy a house in Vancouver is to: 1) have rich parents 2) have a mortgage helper 3) start a grow op

      Also helps:
      A) Take on large debts with large duration risk
      B) Have an existing property that can be sold/levered

  4. UK imposed 7% stamp duty on houses over £2 million. Why you say? No reason…

    • interested Jesse – do you have a link for the UK stamp duty? It seems like a revenue generating scheme rather than an attempt to solve any problem with wealthy buyers.

      • Agreed, but it certainly would affect buyers in Chelsea and East Hampstead more than others, which happen to be areas also rich in Arab, Russian, and more recently Chinese, owners. Here you go:

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17462774

        Seems to be a cash grab most affecting those who don’t vote, or at least those who have no choice but to vote Tory.

  5. Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

    Thank you for posting this latest anecdote. There is so much here that I want to talk about.

    The part about the Ethiopian restaurant really boiled my blood–that whole block quote really touched a nerve with me.

    Basically it’s saying that there is no legitimacy to claims that working class or low income people should be able to live in the City of Vancouver–and that the suburbs do these groups just fine.

    But what’s being forgotten here is that, until recently, working class and low-income people have long lived in the City of Vancouver. I grew up in the City of Vancouver in the 80s and 90s and my dad was a working class non-union labourer who really made a pittance wage. My parents rented. They could afford to rent in Vancouver, not in social housing, in private market rental housing. We had half of a house and a big yard in the City of Vancouver on a working class single wage.

    My mum’s family was also working class–also rented a big house in Vancouver–that house would probably go for $2 million in today’s market.

    We’ve been forced out to Surrey because of high rents in Vancouver. The move was a slow progression, for me. My first place when I was 19 and living away from my parents for the first time was a rental in East Vancouver. I shared it with two other roommates. My share of the rent was $350 a month. I had a minimum wage full time job and paying rent in Vancouver was easy. That was in the late 1990s–not so long ago. Things don’t work out with roommates so you move around a lot when you’re young. But with each move I made, the rental market became progressively more difficult. It’s not just a problem with high rents. It’s also simply a lack of vacancies–or the only thing available is total dumps (I had a nice place for $350 a month when I started out)–or they don’t allow you to take your cat. So that forced me out of the city I grew up in.

    I left Vancouver at the very end of 2001 because already by then the rental market was getting difficult in Vancouver. I went to New Westminster–which is a great city. I believe New Westminster is the densest city in Canada. It is very urban. Great place to live if you are an SFU student–skytrain to Production Way and then a bus up the mountain. So I lived in New West and I went to SFU. Incidentally, my ancestors built New West–I’m just learning about my genealogy now but it’s fascinating. I can trace my ancestry back in New West back to 1865.

    But then I was renovicted out of New West. Transglobe Property Management went on a buying spree in New West in 2006 and bought up lots of apartments. My apartment building had about 70 units–all 70 households evicted–had to be out by Dec. 31–New Years Eve!!! They renovated and jacked up rents after we were gone. Many longterm tenants in that building, including war veterans and one woman who lived there 40 years. So then I ended up in Surrey–along with a lot of the other people who were evicted from that building.

    Whalley is one of the last areas of affordable rental housing near skytrain (crucial for people renovicted out of Vancouver/New West but still working in Vancouver) left in the Lower Mainland. But Mayor Dianne Watts is putting up high rise condos everywhere. She’s built a new library. City hall is moving here. It’s not King George Highway anymore, it’s King George Boulevard. It’s not even Whalley anymore, it’s Downtown Surrey. This is to become Metro Vancouver’s second tier downtown core, after Downtown Vancouver. But this is also about gentrification. I’m afraid these dumpy rentals in Whalley are going to be demolished for condos. Then where will I go? Langley? Abbotsford? No skytrain there to connect me with work and social connections back in Vancouver. Time to leave the province soon. I’d rather live in Calgary than Abbotsford.

    Working class and low income people do have a legitimate claim to the City of Vancouver because we (and our ancestors) built the City. It’s where we grew up. We have memories there. We have friends there. We go to school there. We work there. We access services there and ammenities. If you’re gay–the City of Vancouver is so important for community and for just walking down the street holding your partners’ hand. Surrey is just a dump. It’s really hard to find community here and services. Everything is worse here. Even the hospitals and the medical clinics and grocery stores are worse in Surrey. And we have to pay 3 zone $5 bus fares to go back to Vancouver to visit old friends or for jobs. Try that when you’re making minimum wage $10 an hour. Your first hour of work is just to pay for your transit costs (and a lot of jobs only give 4 hour shifts–first hour pays transit, second hour pays lunch, you only net benefit from 2 hours–$20 per shift–less CPP, EI contributions–hardly worth it to work–probably make more money staying in Surrey collecting cans than commuting to Vancouver for min. wage).

    Having said all that, I do think there is a bit of truth in the statement that the suburbs are becoming more urban and Vancouver is becoming more suburban. I mean, there’s actually a costco in Downtown Vancouver (a mark of suburbia)–but I can’t find a costco in Surrey. I used to go to UBC as well, since I’ve been living in Surrey (en epic commute by transit!). It’s weird that we have a rapid transit skytrain system in Surrey that connects us to Burnaby, SFU area, Lougheed, New West, but as soon as you come into the City of Vancouver you have to get off the train and board a bus the rest of the way to UBC. The west side of Vancouver (where I grew up) does feel like some strange enclavish suburb where hardly anybody lives. Surrey, New West, Burnaby, Lougheed area–all way more urban than vast portions of the City of Vancouver. And the feeling of community is coming here. You can see it right outside on King George Highway (I don’t call it boulevard because I don’t like gentrification)–the diversity of pedestrians walking up and down King George is more than the diversity you get in Vancouver, in terms of class and race. Way more working class feel in Surrey. Way more black people and people from all countries of the world in Surrey–compared to Vancouver which is mainly Chinese. The gays are coming this way too. Surrey has a gay pride parade now. There’s gay pizza shop/cabaret on King George.

    So I’m actually starting to like Surrey now. I’m not sure I want to go back to Vancouver even if it did suddenly become affordable. I mentioned that I have memories in Vancouver–but it’s disturbing to go back there and see all the changes. The way Vancouver is now is not how it is in my memories. So I can remember more easily how it was, if I stay away. My community isn’t there either, increasingly. So I’m turning a page and I’m never going back to Vancouver no matter how affordable it becomes. But I do think working class people like myself still have a legitimate claim to Vancouver if we want to live there because it’s where we’re from.

    • Joe -> Many thanks for sharing your story. We’ll headline it.

    • @Jow_Blown… , thanks for writing this. When you write of “gentrification”, I am fascinated by how everywhere seems to be “gentrifying”, except incomes aren’t going up region-wide. Does. Not. Compute!

      • “Does.Not.Compute.”….

        “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” – Sherlock Holmes

        PS – DoubleDittoThanks re: your piece above, JBAway…

      • That was a terrific post, Joe. I have certainly wondered how low relative incomes against a backdrop of extreme property values might play out. It is a disaster as you note and has really impoverished a lot of people like yourself who grew up in Van. This is how low wages subsidize a bubble actually. When it is bad enough, workers just simply reject it and walk away. There are few choices but to exit and leave the work to the offspring of the owners of all this wealth. Ironically enough, that is their punishment for making the city so unbearably unaffordable that most typical people had no option but to move elsewhere or leave the province.

      • Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

        Thank you, all. It felt really good to express that. It’s the source of so much frustration in my life.

    • Great post.. my only comment would be “I’d rather live in Calgary than Abbotsford.” is a very bold statement.

  6. Renter's Revenge

    The suburbs in Metro Vancouver are almost as unaffordable as Vancouver proper. Abbotsford is near the top (worldwide) in demographia’s recent affordability study.

  7. Joe_Blown_Away_By_High_Housing_Costs

    VREAA: You’re welcome. I’ve been holding that back since I started reading this blog. But this latest story you headlined touched a nerve with me and made me share this with you.

  8. 4SlicesofCheese

    I put my hand up.

  9. so much truth to this article. We’re a generation that wants it NOW, EVERYTHING. A spoiled bunch of brats that’ll have a tantrum if they don’t get it immediately.
    As evidence I think most posters here are renters complaining that their first home can’t be the detached home with yard, garage. I don’t see any posts here outlining that it costs 4.3x avg income to buy an east Vancouver condo – it’s always the dramatic 11.2x detached.

    • 4SlicesofCheese

      You are absolutely right, we are generation want it right NOW, as in I want to buy a place and I do not care if I can barely afford it I will just borrow the money.

    • another professional

      And it only takes 1.0x avg income to buy a parking spot for your cardboard box or shipping container. 1.5x avg income if you want plumbing hook-ups. What’s your point? That housing is affordable in Vancouver if you lower your expectations far enough?

      • if your expectations are for 1976, 1986, or even 1996 conditions then yes, you need to change them. Vancouver has changed and it’s left most of you in it’s wake. Try cognitive behavioral therapy

      • nobody you know

        F1: “Vancouver has changed and it’s left most of you in it’s wake. Try cognitive behavioral therapy”

        But the premise of the article that you praised as being “so much truth” is that in fact Vancouver has NOT changed. It states that “then as now, Vancouver’s real estate was unaffordable. Nothing in that regard has changed. What has changed are expectations.”

        Now what was that you were saying about cognitive behavioral therapy?

      • another professional said: “What’s your point? That housing is affordable in Vancouver if you lower your expectations far enough?”

        Yes, that is indeed formula1′s point.

      • no vreaa.
        it’s quite a different statement to make when I tell you that your expectations were too high to begin with. Alas, it’s too late for you to come to the table with the apporpiate set of expectations…now you need to lower them to where they should have been.

      • formula1 -> My expectations are just fine, thanks.

    • People who buy East Van Condo’s (students, singles, single moms, less fortunate families, worker class immigrants, etc) don’t typically earn the “average Vancouver family income”.

      Under the assumption that the typical buyer of these properties is at least somewhat economically below average, the price multiple is above 4.3. (which is still high in it’s own right).

      That being said, I can almost guarantee that the average price multiple of any property bought in Vancouver is at 11x, because THAT IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW YOU TO BORROW.

      This Formula 1, is the problem. Let me illustrate:

      Example 1: If there is one house on the market, and 10 families want to buy it, and each earn about the same and can borrow about the same, what will the price be? It’ll be whatever the highest compromising family or group of families can afford. Lets say that the 25/25 credit system that had evolved under free market conditions over the last 300 years by banks who needed to be paid back to stay in business will allow a loan @ 5x income and average income = $60,000. Price per family = $300,000 * the number of families that can live in the house. lets say 2. Price = $600,000

      Example 2: The Fed & CMHC agree to back $600BB in mortgages using their own “qualification program”. Keeping in mind that Canadian banks have no minimum reserve requirements and can effectively create as much money as they want via lending activity to every eligible borrower without limit and derive income from interest payments on said created money, Banks agree that creating and lending $600BB dollars is now “risk free” as long as borrowers qualify under the CMHC’s scheme & pay the premium. Banks then race each other to get the biggest piece of the $600BB cap, crashing interest rates (remember, they don’t need to borrow money from you to get this money – there are no reserve requirements!) & lobbying for amortization extentions in the process to create and then compete for “eligible” borrowers. The rampant interest rate competition combined with amortization extensions and the CMHC’s bureaucratically inspired math & loan qualification program now allows more lending to the same people, up to 10x income. The same house, under the same demand conditions, will now DOUBLE in price, to $1,200,000.

      Please notice: this doesn’t increase the ability of the borrowers to maintain employment to pay back the loans – only to borrow money and use it to bid up prices. So in corrolary, a biology lesson for you: why didn’t banks lend @ 10x or 40/5% before the CMHC agreed to back lending at that level? The same reason dodo’s are extinct – because those that didn’t adapt (i.e. stick to a 25/25 lending scheme) were eaten by their environment. By this definition, 100% of loans that were originated with CMHC backing are “subprime”.

      I get it – Vancouver real estate is expensive and so it should be – it is a beautiful city, one of the prettiest in the world. But justifying the price with the price is just plain ignorant – housing prices have been manipulated repeatedly by an inept Federal government who are just now starting to realize the risks that have accumulated in the system. As the Fed reverses the changes they’ve made by capping CMHC backing, lowering amortizations & requiring higher down payments, expect the amount those 10 families can afford to bid for housing in real terms to decrease in the same way it went up.

      For the 10% of houses (mostly the west side) that are bought by rich foreigners with cash, the above obviously doesn’t apply. However, for 90% of real estate that is bought by people who work and live here, it does.

      • “Under the assumption that the typical buyer of these properties is at least somewhat economically below average, the price multiple is above 4.3″.

        acknowledging that this is true is also to acknowledge the opposite – that detached homes are being bought with incomes far above the average Vancouver yearly income.

      • “That being said, I can almost guarantee that the average price multiple of any property bought in Vancouver is at 11x, because THAT IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW YOU TO BORROW YOU”.

        huh?
        You seriously don’t believe this, do you?
        I guess you’ve never applied for a mortgage.
        Do yourself a favour and pre-approve yourself for a loan.
        I’ll bet you dollars to donuts the bank won’t allow you to spend more than 32% of your gross income. That’s 3x, not 11. YOu’re having a tough time grasping the concept of averages.
        Vreaa, help this pour soul out

      • 4.3x the average income = 11x east end condo income. I suggest you read the rest of the post – the issue we face is not about the stratification or concentration of earning power in Vancouver or the rest of Canada for that matter, but about the availbility of cheap credit to ALL buyers.

      • Great post, again. My sentiments exactly. Prices have ballooned in inverse proportion to interest rates.

        So instead of comparing price to income, perhaps it makes sense to look at “monthly mortgage payment to income” over the past 30 years. Does anyone have data on that?

        Of course, that “monthly mortgage payment to income” should still be taken with a grain of salt because it masks interest rate risk. I’m not convinced US/Canada will leave ZIRP anytime soon, but certainly the expected change in interest rates now is positive whereas 30 years ago it was negative.

      • @ Ridiculuous,Vancouver is not one of the prettiest in the world. I wish the deluded locals would stop thinking that, it’s only Vancouverites that say that. When you leave Vancouver you realize that nobody thinks that outside of Vancouver. Grey Skies, dark ugly ocean, nonstop rain and overcast skies are not beautiful and not worth the price. I personally believe that there has been some engineering to make vancouver more expensive, I think it’s tied to the city’s deep inferiority complex and desire to be a real city. That will never happen, it will always be a town to me and many others.Vancouver is like one of those places that make a ball of twine or large hockey stick or whatever to get people to visit because it has nothing to offer.

      • @ Ed – it’s fine that you think that – “prettiness” is subjective. I like the outdoors, cycling & beaches & snowboarding and I am willing to pay a MODEST premium for easy access to those amenities. Regardless, whatever the reason of the individuals that live here, Vancouver has always commanded a price & rent premium to occupy space within its city limits. I’ve been to a few different places – mostly in Europe, Mexico & the US, and relatively, Vancouver is nice. It’s in Canada where I was born, has clean good tasting water, canadian schools are ranked 3rd in the world, I speak the language here, the only people with guns are police for the most part, and the city has things I like within a stones throw. That is not an easy combination to find and scarecity has a price associated with it. That being said, all those amenities can be had for the price of rent, which for all intents and purposes is a fraction the cost of owning. The price to “purchase” a house has been blown out of proportion by our fearless leaders. If you don’t like it, vote against Harper & rent. If you can’t handle renting, I suppose your only option is to move.

      • @ formula 1 – In theory, practice & theory are the same. In practice, they aren’t. Your assertion is easily disproved with a little empirical evidence – the CMHC mortgage calculator will approve you for a mortgage of 7-8x income. I just did it 5 minutes ago. That being said, the CMHC is a conservative estimator of what is actually available out there – you can borrow 11x. Just lie to the bank or use an “alternative” mortgage broker. I have a co-worker who makes 60k/ year who borrowed 600k to buy a house. (If you’re having a hard time with the math, that’s 10x)

      • Ridiculous,

        This is a mystery for you since you’ve never applied for a mortgage. CMHC will loan you 4.5x your yearly income, Genworth (who are a little more flexible) will loan you 4.7x.

        “I have a co-worker who makes 60k/ year who borrowed 600k to buy a house. (If you’re having a hard time with the math, that’s 10x)”

        this is a bald faced lie. There isn’t a fianancial institution in Canada that will come close to this. Either you’re lying or he is. Why don’t you tell me where he got the loan and I’ll call the manager to discuss these details? I bet I won’t be hearing from you on this topic again.

      • Its not a lie- its a fact. Your almost blindly pro-re position in most arguments indicates to me that you must be either heavily vested in either re or the RE industry. I can’t think of another disposition that you could possibly have other than a complete and utter lack of intelligence, which based on your ability to string more than 2 words together probably isnt the case. If you can’t accept the facts, I suggest you have some reading and asking around to do -lord knows based on your posting frequency, you certainly have the time…things must be slow for you?

      • Now, if you really want to show some intelligence, give me your insights into the central theme of my original post, which you still haven’t been able to do. You will continue to hear from me on this topic until you accept the facts, or you file for bankruptcy protection and have to cancel your internet connection, whichever is first.

        The neat thing here is that I’m not really attached to what happens. I make enough through real work that I’m comfy and my holdings are fully diversified – all things considered, I should do all right. That being said, I think real estate is a “sell” at the moment for aforementioned reasons. There is no logical argument that you can make that will convince me or anyone else on this blog otherwise because there isn’t one – and that is clearly frustrating for you.

      • “I have a co-worker who makes 60k/ year who borrowed 600k to buy a house”

        again, please provide the same of this financial institution and I’ll do a check.

        This is from CMHC. There seems to be a wire loose somewhere…you just don’t get it. Not even with a knock to the side of your head.

        “Affordability Rule 1
        The first rule is that your monthly housing costs shouldn’t be more than 32% of your gross monthly income. Housing costs include your monthly mortgage payments (principal and interest), property taxes and heating expenses. This is known as PITH for short — Principal, Interest, Taxes and Heating
        Lenders add up your housing costs and figure out what percentage they are of your gross monthly income. This figure is called your Gross Debt Service (GDS) ratio. To be considered for a mortgage, your GDS must be 32% or less of your gross household monthly income.

        Affordability Rule 2
        The second rule is that your entire monthly debt load should not be more than 40% of your gross monthly income. Your entire monthly debt load includes your housing costs (PITH) plus all your other debt payments (car loans or leases, credit card payments, lines of credit payments, etc.). You have calculated these on the Monthly Debt Payments form. This figure is called your Total Debt Service (TDS) ratio”.

        Using the calculator provided. And assuming your 60K/year “friend” has no other income or debt, he can spend 1600/month on his mortgage. After you deduct taxes, car loan debt (or any other) he’ll likely be left with perhaps 1400/month to spend. That’s get him a loan of approx 275K.

        You ought not to enter into these discussions until you educate yourself ridiculous

        .

      • You are telling me what “should” be ( you said it twice), where as i am simply telling you what is. You are trying to deny reality with theory, unfortunately the world doesnt work that way. Sell.

    • Please! In a normal city one chooses the type of housing they need based on lifestyle/family composition and not cost. The only thing money should dictate is which neighborhood you can live in. We are not asking for the right to live in West Point Grey but the right to be able to buy that small rancher in Pitt Meadows or Surrey.

      I was raised by a single mother who did not earn that much but we had a tiny 3 bedroom house with a small backyard. I earn more than my mother and I have a two income household – why cant my kids enjoy the same lifestyle?

      Nothing wrong with Condos. If a condo fits your lifestyle then by all means please buy one. It is just not for everyone. I have an accountant uncle in Toronto with his own practice. He makes good money but chose to buy a condo instead of a house since he does not wanna be bothered with the maintenance of a house. The man works like 14hour days. He just wants to lock and go. He made a decision based on his lifestyle and not income.

      • nobody you know

        “I earn more than my mother and I have a two income household – why cant my kids enjoy the same lifestyle?”

        EXACTLY.

        We make more than my dad did at my age, have two incomes, no debts and can’t afford to buy my childhood home in our old crap neighbourhood even though it’s twice as old as when my dad bought it on one income, and the commute to that hellhole suburb is worse than ever. If anything it should be cheaper but the damn thing is so bloody expensive we’d have to surrender the ground floor to some dude we met on craigslist and live like a tenants in our own home, confined to raising a family upstairs while a stranger sleeps in our basement.

        Why? Because BEST PLACE ON EARTH, that’s why. I can’t wait to get the hell out.

      • “We are not asking for the right to live in West Point Grey but the right to be able to buy that small rancher in Pitt Meadows or Surrey”.

        Pitt Meadows or Surrey? I think you’ll find prices in those areas less than Calgary – without the -30 degree winter. Are those areas considered unaffordable?

      • Wrong F1 – Surrey is at least 100K more expensive for SFH than Calgary. And you get much more for less in Cowtown. As far as Surrey – been there, done that, definitely not doing it again. Some folks like it but will it ever be as cosmopolitan as Calgary for the native english speaker? I doubt it.

      • @IAMOUTTAHERE

        if i was rusty/etb/f1 or at least had a similar sized chip on my shoulder, i’d call you out on your sense of entitlement

        but i don’t hate my fellow canadians who were also raised middle class

        this housing market is just retarded. stop justifying it and just accept that it is retarded, nothing redeeming about it for the city/province/country in the long term.

    • nobody you know

      LOL. I love how the “New Normal, Paradigm Shift, It’s Different Now!” crowd shifts gears when that argument fails and claims that it has always been like this and the only difference is that renters are “a spoiled bunch of brats that’ll have a tantrum if they don’t get it immediately”.

      Go buy a shitty condo, you stupid brats!

      • Why buy? There’s 17 pages of cheap condo rentals on craigslist for Friday. No tax, no strata, some even come with furniture.

  10. Not sure where this data is from (and if it’s even valid), but the price to income ratio in 1976 looks like it was about 4. I’d definitely be looking to buy at a 4 or so price to income ratio.

    http://canadabubble.com/bubble-watch/2320-vancouver-housing-bubble-part-2.html

    Pete McMartin’s article smacks of fear of equity loss mixed with a self important feeling of “having had it it rough and we shouldn’t complain!” — when in truth, he didn’t have it rough. It’s akin to someone talking up their investing acumen which, on review, was likely nothing more than pure luck.

    • “the price to income ratio in 1976 looks like it was about 4. I’d definitely be looking to buy at a 4 or so price to income ratio”.

      2012 is the new 1976

      • I was gonna buy 400/sqft box on near downtown in 87. Price $89k. Interest was 12% or something. Adjusting for resets, strata, taxes, my total payout would have been $230k. Glance at today’s mls informs me I can buy that same box for $229 cash. You’re right, things never change. Buyer break even.

      • @debtless

        your reply..too logical.. does not compute

        does not compute

        real estate always goes ..up?

        would love to be there when rusty figures out inflation.. the sound of that hamster running on that wheel..full speed

  11. @f1. you’re an idiot. but that’s why we love you. in this chart is everything you need to know about 1976 vs 2012.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX+Basic+Chart&t=my
    story at 6

    • oopsies. here is link:
      http://tinyurl.com/86p6d2e

    • sorry chubsters this ad hominem won’t get you any closer to buying a home. For your own sake put your efforts into something more constructive.

      • do you know what ad hominem means?

      • “what ad hominem means?”

        advertisement? No that’s ad synonym. No idea, sorry.

      • @jesse. crap. i thought i’d hooked him but looks like he shook it off. i thought sport angling for trolls was domaine de dumbass until i caught a repectable financier doing it. so, when in rome, why not. i know this pond was stocked with 3 just a couple days ago. when done please let them go for others to enjoy. they’re getting hard to find.

      • @chubster: Catch&Release isn’t without its merits… but filleting&grilling is eminently more satisfying… They pair well with a good Gris…

      • Got to encourage them just a little. It is too easy to put holes in their boats with all the facts and charts we have but what is the fun in that? Angling sounds about right. Dinner always tastes better when you catch it with your own bare hands.

  12. Price-to-income ratio can be fixed without lowered housing prices and it’s funny how we seem to forget that – calling people “greedy” for wanting higher wages. I’m not loving the crazy housing prices in Vancouver either – but it would be so great to see real support for living-wage campaigns in this city rather than the desire to see a lot of people impoverished through a housing-bubble bursting……

    • Basement Suite

      “rather than the desire to see a lot of people impoverished through a housing-bubble bursting……”

      I guess Holland would have been better off had the tulip bubble never popped either? They could have sustained a whole national economy on tulips, for generations, how lovely, everyone could have got rich and the money would have been grown out of thin air, or the dirt as it were. (Except that requires an exponentially increasing population to feed the pyramid, but don’t worry about that little detail.)

      You know this sounds very much like our bubble:

      “At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman.”

      “Many individuals grew suddenly rich. A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. The riches of Europe would be concentrated on the shores of the Zuyder Zee, and poverty banished from the favoured clime of Holland. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips.”

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

      Oh what a glorious time, it’s just too bad for Holland that the thing went pop.

    • “living wage” would never work for Vancouver. The minimum wage would be $125/hr

      • Agree, the “living wage” movement requires income redistributions different from the current model. Won’t happen under the current provincial regime, and even if implemented I don’t think people would like the result, namely that if credit is loose and available, it simply ups the ante.

      • Living wage actually doesn’t require the people buy homes and is currently calculated at I think $18 per hour. Living Wage doesn’t refer to government minimum wage standards, but employers voluntarily paying living wages to attract and keep good workers. I personally make a lot more than the “living wage” and think it’s a bit low myself – but there is a formula used to determine what a family needs to live on and that’s how its determined. Living Wage is a fairly large movement in London which is also infamous for high rent/own housing prices.

      • Sounds about right, Megan. That is similar to wage scales in London for servers in bars and restaurants. Nobody tips there (except tourists) but wages are fairly respectable for unskilled labour like Barristas and burger flippers. At least that’s how I saw it……mind you, higher average wages fed into London being one of the most expensive cities on the continent too. So there is a downside, believe it or not.

  13. For me, there was a little irony in that comment about being close to Ethiopian restaurants. So now it is time for a brief video adventure. A grocery shopping trip in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia where chicken typically sells “on the hoof” (not much frozen bird here!) and getting a few spuds and an onion can be a day long experience.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQt5UdDwKmU&feature=related

    By the way, Ethiopia is going through one of the biggest building booms in the world. It makes Vancouver pale in comparison as high rises under construction stretch across the horizon in Addis. As the third fastest growing economy in the world you can well imagine it is a dynamic place. There is danger though and it is found in the local housing bubble which is quite frankly off the charts.

    And we thought we had it bad here.

    Folks in Vancouver might complain about the cost of new housing but they have little understanding that in Addis you are faced with a million Birr (the local currency) property costs in a country where average wages are little more than a dollar a day. It is the rough equivalent of earning 10 dollars daily in Vancouver while trying to buy a home worth 600,000 dollars. Hopefully that gives you some perspective.

    http://engl243.wordpress.com/2010/07/03/finfinne-diaries-3-construction-and-inflation-how-to-demystify-ethiopias-so-called-economic-development/

    Here is one that is fascinating. You probably won’t understand most of what is said but you will appreciate from the pictures that a massive construction boom is underway and anyone without means is being squeezed out. The music is terrific though!

    So this note from me today is just a way of saying it is better to keep our lives in perspective. Incidentally there is also a lot of worry in Ehtiopia about the influence of Chinese money. Most of what is under construction is financed from abroad and the largest share is indeed Chinese. Just look what they are building……(and please tell me this gift to Africa is not buying influence and rights to critical resources, lands, minerals and opening political doors. Seriously…just try…)

    http://www.nigeriaintel.com/2012/01/30/au-headquarters-inaugurated-benin-president-appointed-new-chairman/

    And last…the Ethiopia you never see. It just bugs me so much that all these “helping” agencies that take up so much TV airtime begging for handouts just talk about famine and death and scorched earth without ever offering the real picture of daily life.

    Hopefully you can see now the irony in that “Ethiopia restaurant” comment.

    • As Spock would say, “Fascinating.” Thank you, Farmer.

      • Many thanks Nem. Glad you had a look. I know it is bad here but sometimes we lose our perspective. There really are worse bubbles elsewhere and most of them are never on the news because the media does not favor talking about them.

        Cheers. (Pssst….by the way…agree with the boss….it was the Chianti)

      • @farmer

        how dare you speak of the chinese in that way!

        you’re a goddamn racist!

    • Just telling it like it is, Realist. The 200 million dollar gift to build the new African Union Headquarters (AU) was definitely controversial. Just not in Africa. Actually the fur flew in Washington DC where it was becoming clear that American policy was being subverted with free money from the Peoples Republic.

      But wait….how can Chinese free money be getting more bang for the buck than American free money? We already know that the US is the worlds largest contributor of aid to Africa handing out nearly a billion annually to Egypt alone and a similar amount to Ethiopia. This does not even take contributions from the IMF, USAID, the Military or the thousands of supported NGO’s into account.

      And still those Chinese bureaucrats were getting their way and getting the plum contracts for major construction initiatives while signing off on billions of dollars of deals with various African governments at a rate of 20 to 1. The

      Americans are not even in contention over there anymore. Nor are the Europeans.

      Well here is the deal. China took a different approach. They don’t tie their gift giving to political change and they don’t call it “development”. They just commit to a project and then send in their own people to get the jobs done. Locals get trained and there are no strings attached. Work is created and nobody forces an agenda. This is winning hearts and minds in Africa where the people want investment, not charity.

      And who can blame them. US and Western initiatives are often humiliating as they focus on hunger, Aids prevention, drilling wells or educating the rural poor. All good ideas of course. Embarrassing as hell for local governments who are then looked upon as somehow incompetent by both their people and the world at large.

      The brilliance of Chinese policy is that they don’t dictate social agendas or do projects that appeal to bleeding hearts. Instead they build roads, dams, factories, bridges and railways and let God sort out the rest. The outcome results in social progress anyway but it is on the macro scale and less quantifiable than when you can point to a single new school that was built.

      That is why they are getting Africa handed them on a Silver platter.

      http://www.nigeriaintel.com/2012/01/30/au-headquarters-inaugurated-benin-president-appointed-new-chairman/

      Here is that link again in case anyone missed it. The AU building is a marvel in Addis and a symbol of Chinese supremacy over the continent. The point of all this is that real estate bubbles are percolating everywhere around the globe. Even in places you probably never imagined (like Ethiopia of all damn places).

      This too is one of the ways that both US and European stimulus dollars are leaking out into the Third world and compounding significant Chinese investment initiatives into the creation of whole new bubble economies.

      I hope I am not boring anyone here…….

  14. Anonymous UBC Professor

    More noise from UBC about their Housing Action Plan. The “discussion paper” is here:
    http://www.planning.ubc.ca/database/rte/files/HAPDiscussionPaper_Final.pdf

    They are soliciting feedback via an online survey (apparently open to anyone mildly affiliated with UBC). There will also be another workshop on Thu March 29th (presumably only open to people closely affiliated with UBC).

    Details here:
    http://ubcvhousingactionplan.sites.olt.ubc.ca/consultation/

  15. Anonymous UBC Professor

    More noise from UBC about their Housing Action Plan. Discussion paper is here:
    http://www.planning.ubc.ca/database/rte/files/HAPDiscussionPaper_Final.pdf

    There is an online survey (apparently open to anyone mildly affiliated with UBC). There will be another workshop on Thu Mar 29 (presumably only open to people closely affiliated with UBC).

    Details are here:
    http://ubcvhousingactionplan.sites.olt.ubc.ca/consultation/

  16. Anon. UBC Professor

    More noise from UBC about their Housing Action Plan. Discussion paper is here:
    http://www.planning.ubc.ca/database/rte/files/HAPDiscussionPaper_Final.pdf

    There is an online survey (apparently open to anyone mildly affiliated with UBC). There will be another workshop on Thu Mar 29 (presumably only open to people closely affiliated with UBC).

    Details are here:
    http://ubcvhousingactionplan.sites.olt.ubc.ca/consultation/

  17. Courtesy of the burgeoning ‘expectations gap’… a stellar and deliciously ironic… Quote of TheDay…

    “In this place there are only two kinds of people — those who can afford to buy a home and all the good stuff, and those who can’t,” said Chung, 25, who quit his advertising job last year to start a tourism firm. “There’s no more middle class.”

    Now guess where Mr. Chung lives… [Déjà vu, much... DearReaders?]

    [BloomBerg] – Hong Kong Middle Class Bitter as Tycoons Choose Leaders

    …”Chung’s bitterness reflects a broader disillusionment with the city’s leadership ahead of a March 25 election, which will see a 1,193-member committee of billionaires, businessmen, lawmakers and academics choose a new chief executive for the next five years. While China’s tacit approval is seen as necessary to win, the campaign — with two candidates dogged by personal scandal and conflict of interest allegations — has exacerbated public discontent over collusion between business and politics and fueled accusations that leaders are out of touch with regular people.”…

    http://tinyurl.com/7npgsx7

  18. It’s true. You only have to look how people refer to condos (‘shit boxes in the sky’) or neighborhoods that aren’t on the west-side to see how entitled many feel to a sfh on a large lot in shaughnessy.

    • Royce McCutcheon

      ^Yeah… that’s TOTALLY what’s going on. :roll:

      • Then explain why people say that a million dollars doesn’t buy you anything anymore (see the 2nd response at the very top)? It would buy you a VERY nice 3 bedroom condo in Coal Harbour on a high floor with a view of the ocean and Stanley Park. But that’s a “shitbox in the sky” apparently. Everybody just wants a SFH on the Westside. Which says something about the demand size of the supply:demand equation.

      • “Everybody just wants a SFH on the Westside.”

        Well that’s what a lot of people desire, and that’s why they are crazy expensive. Similar locations in other cities would have been urbanized by now.

        But the conclusion that everybody in the younger generation (ie. post boomer) feels entitled to that is just wrong wrong wrong. It does not take into account the tradeoff that exists between location and house quality/size. But today the end-points of that curve are “unlivable house in crappy location” or “crappy house in unlivable location”.

      • @anon

        i’ll bite your troll bait

        it’s not that a million doesn’t buy you anything
        it’s that its NOT a good value.

        you’d have to be insane, deluded or FOB to plunk down a million for anything in east van.

      • Not everybody. The younger generation buys a handheld instead of a car. Me watching productivity and wages drop below the support level for p/e. All nations succumb to apathy. Oh yeah, and student debt… the next repackaged derivative product. Nice deals on “must sell” cottage properties in the lakes district this season.

      • Just caught that one. Funny guy Royce!

    • Basement Suite

      Exactly Realist.

      To Anonymouse:

      You think this f**king DUMP in EAST van is worth a 1.45 million? Even more than the 1.3 million this Chicago classic MANSION is asking?
      http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/tale-of-two-characters-van-east-and-frank-lloyd-wright/#comments

      You think this 3 million dollar TEARDOWN on a TINY lot in west van
      http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/03/15/you-can-tell-a-lot-about-this-listing-at-close-to-3million-for-a-west-side-tear-down-bungalow-in-vancouver/#comments
      is worth the same as this 3 million dollar ULTRA-high end MANSION on a HUGE lot in Palm Beach?
      http://www.luxuryrealestate.com/news/press_releases/3436-luxury-home-sold-by-leibowitz-realty-group-for-31-million
      (Albeit, the above was some deluded West Vancouverite’s asking price and the below a sale price, but still. Vrea please put this comp up, it’s a funny one.)

      HAHAHA Anonymouse if you think Vancouver real estate is not insanely overpriced you are deluded as f**k.

      • Chinese cannot get US citizenship by simply buying their way in. Your examples of Chicago, Palm Beach, etc. have no comparison to Vancouver until the US opens it’s doors to rich foreigners.
        The only other city in the world that you can compare is Sydney – and they’ve been closing the door to foreign ownership for two years now. We all agree that Vancouver insanely overpriced, but we disagree on why. In order to rock this boat we need a change to immigration policy; something that the current government will not touch. Look for 4 more years of the same for Vancouver…and longer if the next administration doesn’t have the bqalls to change it.

      • Basement Suite

        “We all agree that Vancouver insanely overpriced”

        No, apparently there are still holdouts who think vancouver is fairly priced. Anonymouse stated (re. a million dollars):
        “It would buy you a VERY nice 3 bedroom condo in Coal Harbour on a hgh floor with a view of the ocean and Stanley Park.”

        Hence my comps. As to WHY it is insanely overpriced, there are many reasons, not the least of which is a decade of free money and persistent sub 3% mortgages today.

      • Basement Suite

        P.s. As to how fair those comps are, most here would agree that there are plenty of US cities a hell of a lot nicer than this one, with more business and career opportunity, higher salaries, more museums, whatever you want, and houses are a quarter the cost. So I think the RE comps show Vancouver to be very stupidly priced not because the comps are bad, but because they show the truth.

      • I should have followed up my statement
        “We all agree that Vancouver is insanely overpriced”
        But some think this will change, others do not. I for one think that it will not change until we change the # of immigrants moving to this city

    • well said!! Why does everyone think they are entitled to live on the west side of Vancouver.

      • 4SlicesofCheese

        For the last time who the hell ever said they expect to live on the west side. Give it a rest.

  19. not intended to distract from the view of joe blown’s post. bit of color on the question of buying in 1976 vs 2012.

    http://www.multpl.com/interest-rate/

    if you want to borrow, you compete with the us treasury. they have no default risk, only inflation risk. so, you have to come to the table with better terms than what they’re offering to get the money. this makes USTs the baseline ref for general credit issuance in the economy. in 1976, we are 3/4 of the through a secular bond bear market. the cost of borrowing has been increasing every year for about 2X-3X the entire duration to date of the vanRE insanity. aside from what the govt gets on to, this is an environment that has been rewarding prudence and thrift while discouraging and punishing profligacy for several decades. have to pause and reflect on what sort of economic behavior has become prevalent here.

    rates peak as the warfare-welfare public spending excesses from the previous period are wrung and savings rebuilt around 1980. some like to say RE has been a great investment for 30 yrs. well, you could have just locked in 30 yr USTs yielding in the low to mid-teens, with essentially zero risk, kept buying all the way down and been fully liquid the whole time. so, against a simple benchmark, performance isn’t that great.

    by about 2003, the dotcom bubble had blown (man, did i ever screw up there). rates had declined 4%, where they had been at the in the early 60s. left to its own, the market would have begun repricing risk higher and begun the process of correcting all the excesses of those past 10 yrs. appreciate the symmetry. without getting into the details, since then the fed has aggressively wrestled yields down to protect and benefit the cronies. this is where we now stand with 10 yr yields around 2%. by pushing and holding yields down then also taking toxic assets onto its balance sheet, the fed is bailing out and rewarding all the wrong behaviors while punishing the right ones. this is unstable and cannot just goes sideways for awhile. the policy does not address any of the root problems and in fact encourages more of the same. so, it is spring loaded for many reasons and is likely to resolve with some violence.

    if buying was hard in 1976, it was hard for the right reasons. buying in 2012 is hard for all the wrong reasons. consider debt/income, debt/equity, external risks, rate risks, etc. then vs now. following a similar line of reasoning, i think the economics of vanRE have gone so far off, that a gentle readjustment is impossible. i’d expect a fairly violent resolution.

    i’m ripping the idea of the long-term 10 yr chart from the guys at icecap asset management. their jan2012 outlook was one of the better things i’ve read this year. it’s pretty funny and i’m wondering if those are their real names, or does rich biggs also work there.
    http://tinyurl.com/7cr2plc

  20. I know I’m going to regret this… but it is, after all, Friday night… and, post-pasta/Chianti… I simply can’t resist…

    Is it just me, or does that leader illustration of Pete McMartin look like he’s just had a truly righteous ‘Santorum’ experience with Vancouver’s pre-eminent condominiumn developer/market apologist?…

  21. Pingback: “What has changed are expectations. They feel that the proximity to … | Steve Latham – Vancouver's Best Realtor – Phone 604-220-9695

  22. @nem. there are size limits, dude. i stare down that long range 10 yr chart and see a lot of history – and maybe i see what’s coming next. primo cool way to tie some of it together ->

    party!

    • Oh yeah. That reminds me Nem, I solved the problem with the videos not showing up for me and getting a message they were “unavailable”. It was an outdated version of Adobe player. Easy enough fix.

  23. “But should that be a concern of government? Should there even be a task force? And can it have any effect on affordability? I doubt it: without government subsidies, the market will propel any kind of property here into the stratosphere.”

    Silly wabbit, trix are for dix. Ready thine self for taxes.

    Business leaders are speaking out about basing more of their enterprises outside the province because they fear the next election will result in a New Democratic Party (NDP) government.
    An Ipsos Reid poll last month put the NDP at 44%, the BC Liberal Party at 32% and the BC Conservative Party at 16%, up four percentage points from the previous poll.
    MacDonald Development Corp. owner Robert MacDonald has a history of correctly predicting political outcomes and leaving jurisdictions that have left-leaning governments.
    He told Business in Vancouver recently that an NDP government would mean “economic disaster”, so he is starting to shift his focus to Alberta where he now has $300 million worth of projects. (See “Positive Developments” – issue 1168; March 13-19, 2012.)
    And Earls Kitchen and Bar owner Stan Fuller told BIV March 13, “We have, pretty well, the same perspective [as MacDonald].
    http://www.bivinteractive.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5523:fear-of-ndp-government-prompts-business-to-leave-bc&catid=14:daily-news&Itemid=46

    How the game is played… Stimulate with low interest and lot’s of debt, propel inflation, tax profits, raise interest rates, then walk around and buy depreciated foreclosures.

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