“This Macleans article is all about predictions.. no difference than economist, fortune tellers, mayans
The fact is that Toronto and Vancouver are the most attractive cities in the world and foreigners are trying to bust down barriers to enter these two cities to lay their roots. Here’s why the RE boom will continue:
- Lots of immigration coming in; esp professionals and high net worth families
- Best banking system and excellent government policies in place
- Very competitive in the resources/oil/financial sectors
- Consistently ranked by all financial publications as the best cities to live in the world
- Best educational system in the world
- Diverse, multi-cultural, polite population that are always welcome to foreigners
- Interest rates will stay low for a very long time (think Japan)
- The Conservatives show us that time and time again that they are pro-RE and will not let prices fall at all
Here are the prices for Toronto and Vancouver in 2030:
Toronto
Vancouver -> [see chart above]
Stop throwing rent down the rent [sic] and filling your landlords shorts with money bags, stop dumping money into risky and volatile stocks or savings account yield negative interest rates..
Be an OWNER and not a renter and GET RICH”
- BobJJones commenting at Macleans 28 Feb 2012
Saved here for the (somewhat broken) record.
“Yes, Virginia, there were people who were still this bullish on Vancouver RE, circa 2012.”
- vreaa
Royal Bank and TD just raised their dividends 6% each. Rogers just raised its dividend 11%.
How much were you able to raise your rent by? Were you diversified into at least 20 different properties that weren’t concentrated geographically? Got an interest rate hedge in place just in case?
Earnings…
“or savings account yield negative interest rates”
Well this much is true anyway.
My favourite bit is “(think Japan)”.
I’m with you there. Fifteen years seems about right to me too. And not just because of housing. It’s all the other public debt combined with private excess that creates so much hazard.
“The Conservatives show us that time and time again that they are pro-RE and will not let prices fall at all”
Hey, what happened to Capitalism and The Market?
Also the best education in the world??? Really?? I introduced my manager to the blog yesterday due to that $600K sold basement.
He was thinking about selling his house and buy a new one in a better school district. When I told him that there are no formal math class prior to grade 4, he couldn’t believe it!!! Neither could my wife when I told her the same thing at dinner.
Also, I have been told from more than 1 source that ~50% of applicants for cashier or blackjacks deal fails the basic math tests required for the job.
I have kids in Grade 1 and Grade 4, and both have been doing math since starting school. We’ve been at two different schools and have friends at another three schools. All are doing math, so I’m not sure where you’re getting your info.
Perhaps it’s in a different order than you had when you were younger – it’s definitely more in depth than the rote and arithmetic I grew up with, focusing more on applied maths and even some algorithmic design. They do some rote (and we help with times table memorization at home), but are otherwise focused on really understanding and using their math skills. I’ve seen the subject taught both in specific math lessons and applied to every unit they do: from introducing numbers and counting, to grouping, sets, place value, graphing, estimation, units, measurement, etc. As a comp sci grad I’ve actually been pretty impressed – these kids are learning not only the rote but the logic, and it’ll serve them well.
(( And if 50% of applicants for cashier or blackjacks are failing basic math tests, I would suggest that perhaps we might learn something of those who are applying for such jobs and muse on thoughts of bell curves and population distribution. There are people who struggle intellectually. I wonder if being a blackjack dealer might be a well paid position with a low barrier to entry – ie: high-school + interview test? With education inflation affecting everything from janitorial to food servic, any low-barrier to entry position with financial upside is naturally going to attract people with no other cert.))
Many countries are struggling to arm the youth with decent skills. http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/304031/Bosses-baffled-by-text-speak-of-youngsters-who-can-t-write
I live in Japan…but vreaa beat me to the punch: off 80%.
Wow, I live in Vancouver and I don’t recognize the city you’re talking about. Perhaps your Vancouver lives only inside your head. The bottom line is: wages must double soon or prices have to drop up to 50% to bring things back into alignment. What do you think is more more likely to happen, with austerity in Canada coming to a city near you
And the even crazier notion that the country will maintain current high immigration numbers if we are struggling with double digit unemployment. Not going to happen. As I understand it, immigration is already being tightened up. Family reunification has slowed dramatically and most processes are being slowed. I do not think it is coincidental timing to our housing peak.
eschew owe-nership, flush with pride
That would be a highly anomalous chart.
But he has a chart
Really brilliant forecast with constant % annual growth for the next 20 years – a real genius this person is.
BobJones is a regular poster on globeandmail’s message boards and almost always links in his charts that show 10%+ increases forever. At first I thought he was a RE bear that was being sarcastic but he frequently posts almost exactly this same message.
Nuts. If I showed a chart of crude oil prices from 2001 to present with a forecast using the same average annual growth of 15% so that prices reached 660$/bbl by 2025, I’d expect to be laughed out of town.
Alas, your oil projection is probably accurate, which doesn’t bode well for real estate.
Excellent. Thanks!