“55 new listings at UBC in the past 2 weeks.
HAM dump.”
- Best place on meth at vancouvercondo.info 23 Feb 2012 3:05pm
“I wonder what the total inventory is at UBC vs recent sales. There are lots of cranes, plus many signs warning of more. All for a 99 year leasehold and high maintenance fees. If there is a place in van west that is ripe for carnage this should be it.”
- ubc at vancouvercondo.info 23 Feb 2012 6:23pm
“38 for sale in Hampton place alone !?!?!?!? (UBC)
This is pure insanity.
People are rushing to the exit.”
- jumpin in at vancouvercondo.info 23 Feb 2012 6:40pm
“Speaking with a few owners here in Hampton Place. There are still a bunch more waiting to list. All 3 hi rises here have significant issues that need repairing. One has already had an special assessment with the other 2 still waiting to figure out what direction to take.”
- condo conundrum at vancouvercondo.info 23 Feb 2012 8:29pm
—
Is this change confined to one development?
If not, and MOI of UBC condos as a whole is rising, combined with news of low sales of Westside new-builds, this could indicate an important drop in Westside buyer interest.
We continue to watch the Westside closely because it remains the epicentre of the bubble.
- vreaa
“Leasehold” seems like one of the the biggest RE scams going.
Correct. Worked well for the Duke though…
http://tinyurl.com/7pqtn8c
Sorry, I don’t follow and no time to research. What are you referring to?
TheDuke… owns half of London… well, almost half. Certainly the nicer half. He kindly leases his holdings to the peasants (and some not so ‘peasants’). Excluding RussianOligarchs and transient OverSeasChinese… theDuke… is the wealthiest indigene (compared to theDuke, ‘Liz’ is a pauper; which could explain why there was recently some ChitChat about having a national ‘WhipRound’ to buy Liz&Phil a YachtRoyale; it’s tough keeping up the Abromavich’s, you know).
http://tinyurl.com/76tperm
It’s no scam, it’s right there in the agreement. If someone thinks leasehold=freehold they are being scammed by their own ignorance.
I think most “buyers” of leasehold fall into this camp though.
Freehold doesn’t mean too much either, especially in a monarchy.
We’re getting into the last half towards last third of the 99 year leaseholds on Beach ave by now. However, I can’t imagine some of the leaseholds made today lasting 99 years.
Yeah, I always wondered why people spend so much money on leasehold homes. It can’t be just ignorance. I bet the majority bought for quick flip and the pool of fools empties faster with this kind of properties.
On a commercial lease, it’s an expense, so the increase in productivity offsets the cost. In residential lease, it’s the same if you can sublet to tourists, etc. To buy a lease and live there because of the view is dicey, especially at market peak. But I think it is easier to break a lease than a evade a bank mortgage. Wait for the writedowns to hit revenue Canada.
These properties are not a lease in the sense you seem to describe. You can buy them with mortgage and can NOT just break the lease if you feel like that. It have the worst from both worlds…
I’m very surprised to hear the news above, but it may indicate just how many “investors” own at UBC. I think they had been counting on a perpetually good rental market (students etc.), and if even these investors are starting to flee….
I’ve also noticed For Sale signs for months on very high-end places (= the usual ridiculously overpriced, fancy-fridge units) along Chancellor Boulevard and Iona Drive at UBC.
Finally, one realtor I spoke to recently expressed puzzlement at buyers still buying West-side ‘teardowns’ because he knows that new builds aren’t selling either.
I think it’s criminal that the kind of information and knowledge freely available on this blog has been kept out of the MSM, partly of course because of all the bank-led RE boosterism. If those builders who represented 15 of the 17 bidders on a nearby bungalow recently haven’t been well-informed about what could happen next, they and all their employees might wind up in real trouble.
Thanks for the great anecdotes.
“I think it’s criminal that the kind of information and knowledge freely available on this blog has been kept out of the MSM”
As a cultural phenomenon, I find it fascinating that MSM has degraded itself to the point of irrelevance. I do quite like the CBC, but they rarely ask the tough questions. (Their recent expose on illicit botox injections was great.)
“If those builders who represented 15 of the 17 bidders on a nearby bungalow recently haven’t been well-informed about what could happen next, they and all their employees might wind up in real trouble.”
A greater fool and his money are soon parted.
I have been repeatedly told that articles for print in The Province newspaper are to have a grade four to grade six reading comprehension level.
Explaining anything related to what is the largest purchase a person will make in their life, without fearing the fleece off the sheep would be damn near impossible within such constraints.
Actually, CBC has been pretty good I thought. Rex Murphy has covered some of the issues in detail these past two years and opened the lines to the public while bringing on some great guests. I am referring to his weekend radio one show. Same goes for Maria Tremonte who is asking some tough questions lately and even the “As it Happens” folks have weighed in. Maybe you should try radio for a change.
Don’t say that too loudly, Harper’s crew may intensify efforts to shut down or muzzle CBC. The general attitude seems to be that if it’s publicly funded, it works for the government. If they got the chance, would they do the same for schools?
I’ve personally become more appreciative of CBC radio over the last year or so, partly after starting to follow the RE saga, and gaining a deeper perspective on politics and economics. Plus the smart knowledgable DJs on the music channels, compared to the complete idiots on the commercial channels.
I will try to keep it to myself MM.
(Pssst……..hey buddy……….CBC Radio One…….pass it on)
I think it’s criminal that the kind of information and knowledge freely available on this blog has been kept out of the MSM
But all markets are like this. In the stock market, you’ve got your value guys who pore over financial statements and go on field trips, the technicians who believe the charts reveal everything the value investors know, the momentum players who just try to follow obvious trends, and the index investors who don’t contribute to price discovery at all.
If you want in depth knowledge of any subject, the mass media isn’t the place to get it. Another key point to remember is this: Unlike the stock market, everybody had a direct interest in shelter, so everybody’s talking their book. Your average reporter, in addition to being somewhat lazy (aren’t we all?), probably owns a home, because he’s average. There’s a certain amount of cognitive dissonance going on. If you write the bubble story, shouldn’t you sell your house and rent for a bit? If that’s too inconvenient and unpopular with family members, maybe this talk of a bubble is overblown, the reporter tells himself.
For a Central Banker, I thought Carney’s words yesterday were awfully immoderate. If you apply the usual 5x multiplier to correct for cautious understatement, he was all but shouting “THIS SUCKER’S GOING DOWN!”
@Ralph – Lol about “If you apply the usual 5x multiplier to correct for cautious understatement, he was all but shouting “THIS SUCKER’S GOING DOWN!” — Thanks!
I hear what you’re saying, but, remembering Watergate, I keep being surprised by journalists who aren’t going hard after hard truths. I don’t watch TV, so don’t know what’s going on there, but it seems like some journalists here aren’t averse to criticizing the government. I’m just not sure why more journalists in Vancouver haven’t been more doggedly critical of the fatal alliance of developers, the RE industry, the banks etc. If the newspapers feel some obligation to go soft on the RE industry because they depend on them for advertising revenue, well that is truly the end of journalistic integrity in this town.
And it’s all so shortsighted — I mean, does the RE industry really want all those builders to fail? I just don’t get it.
I nominate the VREAA host for the Order of Canada, for his services to the nation!
I thought the bank was pretty stern. What I read yesterday were some of the strongest words I have seen yet from both the Bank of Canada and Mr Flaherty. They are trying to talk this market down. Hopefully people will start listening soon and we cool just a little. Cool yes, crash no.
You know, Vesta, the papers have really seen revenues dry up these past few years. The old standby revenue source was classified advertising but that has gone the way of the Dodo with the advent of Craigslist, Kjiji and other free internet sites.
Now papers are more reliant than ever on inserts and full page ads than ever before. These are the types of spreads that were typically bought by the big chains like Future Shop, Auto companies and Realtors.
You will no doubt have noticed a bias in the papers to the advertisers that pay the bills. What are they supposed to do? Piss off the folks that provide the bread and butter for the business? So the internet did more than just kill off an independent media and strip editorial freedoms out of the press room. As it cannibalized newspaper revenues it simultaneously deprived us of journalism free of bias.
It has indirectly substituted public non-professional commentary for a privately run independent press and put the man on the streets view ahead of studied journalists, many of whom were trained well to deliver a story free of agenda.
And that is why you are reading my comments instead of yesterdays issue of “The Province”.
“I nominate the VREAA host for the Order of Canada, for his services to the nation!”
I would nominate him for Order of BC, but I wouldn’t want to sully his image by lumping him in with Gordon Campbell. A more appropriate choice would be to nominate Monty Robinson for Order of BC.
“As it cannibalized newspaper revenues it simultaneously deprived us of journalism free of bias.”
Farmer, that is an extremely good point.
And I think that is why many of us are here praising CBC, because they have no advertisers. (But they do have to tread lightly to avoid pissing off their patron, Harper.) I do listen to CBC radio, and I think it is pretty good. They could be even more aggressive about uncovering truths and forcing people to think critically, but they’re certainly way above average in that regard.
The thing that most of the MSM doesn’t see is that they are absolutely pissing away the one thing that would set them appart from new media: journalistic standards.
Thanks, Jeff!
“bank-led RE boosterism.” – Vesta
quote of the day
Funny how this thread went from UBC to MSM and into education… seems full circle.
Radio, Newspapers, and TV are afraid to speak the truth for fears of sounding like chicken little with falling skies. One person starts to shout SELL before the bubble bursts, and low and behold no bursting of anything makes that ‘shouter’ lose all credibility. Look back to when the prices started to fall in 08-09 then the Gov stepped in and offered all types of carrots and the BOC followed suit. People were crying… I can’t buy back in Blah, Blah, Blah….
Loss in confidence is (will be) the biggest killer of this RE Bubble. The tides are starting the shift and gaining momentum.
MSM can’t report the truths, and it has been parroted many times before that if you read it on web sites it must be lies, for anyone can type anything on the web. If it is printed it has to be 100% true, as goes the same with radio. (just listen to NW B. Goode for any conformation, I feel he has sold out and now just tows the Corus line before retirement. why rock the boat.)
Dumb people do dumb things.
Radio, newspapers and TV report the news KC. It is not their business to report on speculation and theory. That is the realm of internet blogs like this one. The media is best at covering what has actually happened, not what might happen. We need to keep that in mind before ripping in to them too hard.
However it didn’t stop some media from reporting speculation about CNY. Speculation done by real estate agents with an obvious conflict of interest. Speculation that has since been proven wrong.
The media is a place for public discourse, at least in a healthy democracy.
Blogs like this one also report news and facts, but takes the time to draw logical conclusions.
Bank of Canada lives on spiraling girth of inflation, so when they say “warning”, it’s already too late.
I don’t think ‘loss of confidence’ will come into play on all properties, just specs. Retirees who are mortgage paid exist in a reasonable number, they will sit and ride it out tax increases, valuing lifestyle rather than asset. It’s the new buyers over the last five years who’s confidence will be tested. “Do I wait it out and rent from the bank, or default because it was a gamble anyway?”
re: MSM, years ago I worked in print, designing ads. The cover is reserved for shootings, the inside front cover is reserved for spa treatment and real estate. Shock, then soothe with product. It’s all about filling reader’s joy hole with inventory. Reporters are a necessary annoyance.
What if UBC had built some office space, for startups and created an accelerator for the Vancouver entrepreneurial community?
Exactly. High tech and engineering companies lease offices at the campus of Calgary University, though these premises could be privately owned.
Like Waterloo did? And ended up supporting the creation of RIM?
If only…
Real jobs were created and RIM’s products sold globally until they decided to R&D in hockey. Universities and the real estate industry are odd bed-fellows.
Drep the university of Waterloo never gave money to RIM its the other way around. What the university did give RIM are lots of smart students.
RIM founders has given a ton of money to the University of Waterloo and created tons of high quality jobs for University of Waterloo Students.
And the http://www.uwrtpark.uwaterloo.ca/ is a great for the local Watreloo economy, the university, and industry. Why UBC focused on building condo’s really beats me. Vancouver, could really use some good high quality affordable office space.
Disclaimer I am Waterloo grad and I worked for RIM a long time ago and I used to live across the street from RIM. RIMs current problems have nothing to do with real estate speculation. In my opinion there are are too many engineers building user interfaces at RIM, they need some designers and usability experts.
A lot of universities have incubators which provide office space, legal and marketing services, business support, etc. They promote the creation of companies based on research in other departments. For sure, they don’t always succeed, but is more in line with the academic mission of the universities and can lead to real job creation. Start-ups failing, that’s the nature of the game.
Hey formula1, isn’t your views about HAM coming to Vancouver
-they want to own their own land ie freehold
-they want land, no condos
That was before they discovered the ghosts!
“they want to own their own land ie freehold and they want land, no condos”
That’s only the rich HAM. It’s the poor HAM slumming it in those $1m UBC condos.
If you buy a condo today chances are the majority of the cost is in the construction, and very little in the land. Whether the property is freehold or leasehold makes no difference in the utility but matters a great deal when people are extrapolating cash flows four generations from now.
We don’t need any other reasons to claim prices are nuts, but claiming that a 99 year lease is measurably inferior to freehold is the proverbial cherry on top.
Housing bubble crisis? Maclean’s vs. The Bank of Canada
February 24th, 2012
By David Akin
“Two national institutions, the Bank of Canada and the newsmagazine Maclean’s, are out with new publications today with starkly different conclusions about the real estate market and household debt in this country.”
http://blogs.canoe.ca/davidakin/main-page/housing-bubble-crisis-macleans-vs-the-bank-of-canada/
debtless said “I don’t think ‘loss of confidence’ will come into play on all properties, just specs. Retirees who are mortgage paid exist in a reasonable number, they will sit and ride it out tax increases, valuing lifestyle rather than asset.”
I would tend to disagree with this statement. I have yet to meet one homeowner in Vancouver that is not aware of the “Market price” of his or her home.
“Knowing” you have X number of dollars in equity will definitely effect the mindset of the person if those numbers start to slip. Would you buy a new car/furniture/jewelry if you felt you just lost 20-50% of the value of your home (a number that would take the average wage earner something like 10-20 years to save)? I agree the spec people will be the first to flee but any major correction is going to affect everyone.
This market is about psychology not fundamentals. Reality left the lower mainland RE scene sometime in 2007
“I would tend to disagree with this statement. I have yet to meet one homeowner in Vancouver that is not aware of the “Market price” of his or her home. ” – RL
Aware, yes, but not necessarily a lack of confidence from mature owners. A paid up mature owner will be less likely to maneuver in volatile market conditions. Older consumers are more aware of the cyclical nature. Their concern would be time to recovery, rather than lack of confidence in snapshot housing appraisals. I personally believe they would draw on other assets to maintain their position through a downturn, or swap laterally based on lifestyle. It depends on how much they can absorb and the timeframe to any recovery. The wildcards, devaluation of traditional currency and taxes.
Yes, I would include ‘emotion’ as a market indicator.
Its almost hard to contimplate a person thinking that way, but I understand your point better now.
I think we are gonna see a bunch of houses on the West side doing a similar dance in 3-4 years, just in time for a mortage refinancing..
I’m watching for traffic aggravation as borrowers race from one bank to another looking for a line of credit. Slammed doors in bank parking lots when they find out their asset has been revalued despite appraisals.
An aside….
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Five years after the housing bubble burst, America’s wealthiest families are now losing their homes to foreclosure at a faster rate than the rest of the country — and many of them are doing so voluntarily.
This would not be an indicator of ‘lack of confidence’ among mature US buyers five years ago. Instead this indicates a ‘desperate hope’ for market recovery gone awry. Someone sitting with a home paid after 25 years of mortgage is in serious denial right now, if they aren’t selling. I would contend the majority of home owners had no intention of selling under pressure before now. This will be a paradigm shift returning to normal devaluations and may cause some to bang their head against the wall.
OT As a perspective from the outside looking into the land of illusion “(Vancouver):
The idea of a $3.0 million dollar property in Vancouver being a “teardown” can be contrasted with the listing of Mary Kay’s (yes THAT Mary Kay) 12,000 sq. foot, 40′ ceiling, 7 bedroom, mansion on a 1 acre lot in Dallas for $3.3 million.
Presumably the buyers of these teardowns are also founders or executives of multibillion dollar companies????
say that like, how it is! hardly. just dumbass egomaniacs, soon to be poor for the rest of time. the cure for hubris? why odysseus took 10 yrs longer to get home and why israelites wandered the desert for 40 yrs. FEAR has been on sabbatical, now returning home to a big unruly mess.
Dallas is not running out of land, they have no mountains or ocean, no film industry, and they never hosted an Olympics. Texas is scary because everyone owns guns, so nobody wants to emigrate there. It doesn’t rain enough there, which is why they have tumbleweed problems. Plus their Dim Sum restaurants suck and pink mansions have bad Feng Shui.
As one who has spent substantial time at UBC over the years, it always amazes me to go back there now. It’s insane. And it’s hard to tell if the place is actually a post-secondary institution or a property management company.
Screwed up priorities.
It’s a property management company:
http://bog.ubc.ca/?page_id=4586
http://bog.ubc.ca/?page_id=4562
See my inventory post on VCI. MOI for University condos now 11 months – Really worst in Van outside of coal harbour.
ZRH2YVR ATTACHED inventory numbers from VCI:
Area MOI
Dunbar 21.2
Coal Harbor 13.1
Oak 13.0
S. Gran. 13.0
Univ. 10.8
Kerris. 8.9
F.Creek 8.5
Quil. 7.1
S. Camb. 6.5
West End 6.1
Downtown 6.0
Yaletown 5.5
Marpole 5.5
Kits 5.3
SW Mar. 5.2
Fairview 4.8
PG 4.0
Shaun. 3.6
Southl. 3.3
Mount P 3.0
Cambie 2.7
“Dallas is not running out of land, they have no mountains or ocean, no film industry, and they never hosted an Olympics. Texas is scary because everyone owns guns, so nobody wants to emigrate there.” – Jeff , why is it then that thousand’s of Californians have moved there in recent years? Somebody made a valid point when you look at the cost and what you get in 2 different cities. Dallas is no Vancouver in terms of diversity, food, culture and geography but has been one of the fastest growing cities.
Austin is pretty cool, though. And, frankly, Dallas is not that bad. I’d say reasonably on par with Vancouver, depending upon what you’re after.
(Let’s see, Vancouver doesn’t have the NFL, MLB, or the NBA… blah, blah, blah. See, anyone can play that game.)
. . . on par with Vancouver . . . – why, do people in Dallas pay $600,000 for a basement in the worst part of town or is it because Dallas has an economy built on RE flipping and HAM? You must be smoking too much dope.
Why are Vancouverites so smug about the Olympics.????? Geez…..
Those were WINTER Olympics that most of the World does not care about anyway. For whatever its worth, it puts Vancouver in the same group are Nagano, Sochi etc.
It is like someone with an inferiority complex trying to assert himself
Sorry, since I’ve been posting a while, I thought you’d all know I was being sarcastic. With rusty/formula1/etc. not posting so often, someone has to play the bull role once in a while. =)