“Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson has drawn deeply on all sectors of the housing industry to represent his new “housing affordability task force” in the hope of finding realistic solutions to the city’s housing problems.
From developers and builders to academics, housing finance groups and operators of not-for-profit housing, the 14 members will assist the mayor and co-chair Olga Ilich to try to find new ways to soften the effects of the city’s systemic housing affordability crisis.
They will prepare an interim report by March 12, which will then be opened for public consultation. A final report is due June 30.
Robertson said Vancouver faced extraordinary challenges in creating affordable housing and he wanted the task force to look at ways to both protect existing housing and to create more. The city has a 10-year housing and homeless strategy of creating 38,000 new affordable homes, including 5,000 new purpose-built rentals and 20,000 new housing units.
Over the years, successive councils have grappled with the seemingly intractable problem of stimulating affordable housing without destabilizing the existing stock.”
…
“The 14 members will help mayor and co-chair find new ways to soften the effects of the city’s affordability crisis.”
In addition to Ilich and Robertson, the task force includes:
Alan Boniface — Principal, DIALOG & Urban Land Institute B.C. Chairman
Nathan Edelson — Senior Partner, 42 Street Consulting
Leonard George — Director, Economic Development, Tsleil-Waututh Nation
Marg Gordon — CEO, B.C. Apartment Owners & Managers Association
Mark Guslits — architect, principal, Mark Guslits & Associates Inc.
Colleen Hardwick — founder and CEO, New City Ventures
Howard Johnson — CEO, Baptist Housing
Kenneth Kwan — Chairman, Building Committee, SUCCESS
Michael Lewis — Executive Director, Canadian Centre for Community Renewal
Eric Martin — VP, Bosa Development Corp.
Karen O’Shannacery — Executive Director, Lookout Society
Al Poettcker — President & CEO, UBC Properties Trust
Peter Simpson — President & CEO, Greater Vancouver Home Builders Association
Bradford Tone — President, Tone Management
“The members of the Housing Affordability Task Force bring a broad and diverse array of experience, leadership, and vision to our work on the pressing challenge of affordability,” Robertson said in an emailed statement.
“Vancouver must be a city where our children can afford to live and raise their families. This is not a simple challenge but it is one that we have to address — and I believe this task force has the ideas and expertise to provide new affordability solutions for Vancouver.”
- from ‘Vancouver appoints ‘housing affordability task force’, Vancouver Sun, 6 Feb 2012
—
“Foxes To Design New Henhouse?” – Actually, such criticism would be too easy, too glib, and, we would hope, incorrect. Not everybody on the task force is a developer. Still, interesting that people trying to solve the problem should come from “all sectors of the housing industry“. Isn’t there a possibility that some important solutions may involve steps that are not in the best interests of “the housing industry”, and that those would be avoided by this task force?
Having said that, we’re sure that there are members of this task force who are well-meaning, and have a genuine desire to attempt to ‘solve’ the housing ‘problem’ that faces Vancouver. We’ll be genuinely interested to see what they come up with.
Forgive us our jadedness, but we’d expect their ‘final report’ to include:
1. Opening and final statements regarding the importance of ‘affordable housing’ to Vancouver, our futures, our communities, our children, etc.
2. Suggestions for projects that involve small and/or low quality units at lower prices, but essentially still at ‘market prices’ for what they are. As per the ‘two parking spot’ bachelor suites released last year.
3. Projects that benefit “the housing industry” at the expense of tax-payers.
4. Absolutely no mention of the real cause of the housing crisis in Vancouver, namely the massive speculative mania driven by overextended locals high on cheap debt.
5. No plans that would risk ‘destabilizing’ current housing prices.
Regular readers know that we believe that Vancouver is in the grips of a very large bubble in housing, and that prices are at levels 2 to 3 times those supported by fundamental values. The speculative mania so distorts the market that any current talk of trying to make changes to improve ‘housing affordability’ is rendered trivial and cosmetic. Once the bubble bursts and prices drop 50%-66%, the whole ‘affordability’ picture will look very different. Thereafter there will still be a need for sensible housing policy for the city and the region, and perhaps a task force will be helpful at that point. Until then attempts to address ‘affordability’ are rearranging the proverbial deck chairs on the proverbial Titanic.
- vreaa
You can’t regulate GREED and incompetence.
Case in point: jacking up rent on seniors.
http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/News/local/2012/02/09/19362001.html
The final verdict on all these back slapping meetings and reports will be the same… he with the gold makes the rules.
good luck to all involved.
I’d like this task force to begin by providing an account of all the affordable housing LOST due to COV and Provincial perquisites to developers and spec. buyers: (i.e.: Riley Park, Olympic Village, and the destruction of rental housing stock (much of which now sits empty).
-
Big lineups at Marine Gateway, starting $270K for less than 500sqft. No storage or parking either Hey if you want affordability in Vancouver you have to compromise.
And really how can building new stock hope to provide “affordable” accomodations? Units of less than 400sqft downtown are grossing over $1000/month. Let’s face it. Building stuff with today’s land prices ain’t cheap. But everyone on that task force can tell you that.
Wasn’t marine gateway open for pre-viewing?
Good find, vreaa. You’re spot on in your comments.
I don’t think the City can do anything here, other than use tax dollars to make a few pieces of property available at below-market rates. One thing’s for sure: none of the developers involved will be working for anything less than their usual rates.
Market forces will eventually crush Vancouver. In the meantime, this initiative will benefit a handful of low-income families at the expense of everyone else, with zero effect on the bubble or long-term affordability.
100% agree – the China approach to popping the bubble and a hard landing is the only possible solution to fixing the “housing affordability crisis” in Vancouver. Best to leave the market alone so as to not increase the collateral damage since it’s far too late now for a soft landing.
Disagree. A hard landing means negative rates of growth. Nobody believes such a dire situation is about to unfold. Slower GDP growth perhaps but not a so-called hard landing. The economy will continue to expand.
Sure, phantom GDP growth of 4% with core inflation of 5%. That’s negative “growth” in real terms. GDP = P * V so just because GDP goes up doesn’t mean economic output is expanding.
Ever hear of the quantity theory of money? If the central bank keeps printing / expanding money supply either through traditional or non-traditional channels and spending / borrowing (velocity) slows then the result can easily be stagflation – ie. output contracts as prices increase. This is exactly where Vancouver is headed because of “over-investment” in RE assets. Every bubble in history has popped – it’s always a hard landing. The choice is how soon / how hard.
And population growth. GDP growth should be keeping up with that too, Although in the U.S. at least, they won’t call it contraction until it’s under 0 (when I’d think it’d be anything under 1%)
Hey, I’ve just been reading Berelowitz’s ‘Dream City: Vancouver and the Global Imagination’, a great little read that covers a lot of the history of development here. He talks about a number of Co-ops and social housing projects that got built back in the 80′s. What’s happened lately?
My thoughts: If you tell a developer that it’s 20% non market units in his development, or no building permit, then you’ll get non-market housing built (or, if it really is impossible, nothing will get built). If you say you want him to sit on a committee and write a report, you’ll get a report.
”Until then attempts to address ‘affordability’ are rearranging the proverbial deck chairs on the proverbial Titanic.”
Why am I thinking shipping containers? Must be subliminal.
In the Chinese Newspapers it said not one house was sold to “Wenzhou” money over the Chinese New year which is now officially over after 2 weeks of celebrations. The Chinese Newspaper said maybe they will be back later this year. I wouldn’t count on it when there are articles like this:
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/2012/02/wenzhou-company-boss-arrested-with.html
I wonder what other BS the RE pumpers will make up to keep this bubble inflated. Original RE pumping article from Jan. 23, 2012 attached below:
2012
“Wenzhou money is now in Vancouver. An article from Vancouver’s chinese media talked about groups of businessmen from Wenzhou are in Vancouver now and purpose of their trip is to buy properties. One agent by the name of Zhang Wei Bin of Sutton picked up 4 parties at the airport alone on Monday, the first day of the year of dragon. Starting on Tuesday, they have started to look at ocean view properties in West Van, most in $5 million range, including one at 2400 Halston Crt, which those businessmen consider very cheap, comparable properties cost 3 times more in China.
Most of you may never have heard the city. It is the birth place of current day capitalism in China and it is estimated the residents of the city have amassed over $90 billion investable capital, people from Wen Zhou are known as fierce business competitors, and fearless properties buyers. Wen Zhou housewives formed buying teams and go from city to city to buy big chunk of new development projects and sell later for profit.”
- unicas at RE Talks 26 Jan 2012 8:44pm
—
2011
“The Wenzhou ladies may be coming. Wenzhou people are feared in China both as fierce business competitors and real estate buyers. 30 years ago, they were among the first Chinese who set up private business shops. They calculated profit by fraction of a penny. For the past decade they have been known as bigshot condo buyers. They form teams of RE buyers, go from city to city in China, and bring up prices whereever they go. And for the first time ever, they are allowed to invest directly overseas. So the suit case for cash will not be needed anymore. And “I buy 3, husband buy 3 thing may not be evening news material anymore. The money they are allowed to invest oveaseas may not initially sent out of the country in the name of RE investment, eventually most of the money will find their way in some kind of real properties.”
- unicas at RE Talks 23 Jan 2011 10:05am
“not one house was sold to “Wenzhou” money over the Chinese New year ”
At least the Chinese media is honest in their reporting on this one.
Meet the realestate talkers.
Extract from the pumpers, “One agent by the name of Zhang Wei Bin of Sutton picked up 4 parties at the airport alone on Monday, the first day of the year of dragon. ”
Teaching English in China, before working for the US government agencies, and now selling houses in Vancouver.
http://tinyurl.com/7lws54r
http://www.vanrealtor.com/index.htm
Well HAM was lined up for the mega yacht viewing at the boat show this morning. 35 or so people in line and not one that wasn’t asian. We weren’t even remotely interested.
jesus christ
everyone, stay out of the water
you’re taking your lives in your hands
Just a quick aside. I checked the MLS this morning for my Sunday laffs. Looked specifically at built-on-silt Richmond, where there are 900 some odd SFHs currently for sale. Of that 900, there are none (NONE) priced under $500,000. Not one house in Liquifaction Central under a half-million dollars. Seriously, people, have you seen some of the garbage in Richmond? Yet nothing under a half mil?
BTW, if you raise your price point by another quarter million to $750,000, you’ll find just 25 available homes. Raise it to a cool million and you get 230 or so. So…of the 900 SFHs currently on the market in glorious Richmond, approximately 670 are priced in excess of a million dollars. My god.
It’s easy to see what a fight this will be on the way down. Between the people who believe real estate *always* goes up (even in a market ruled by lies, greed, corrupted media, and rampant speculation), the speculators and the flippers themselves, and those who foolishly paid murderous prices for their wage-busting dumps and now find they have to get out, substantial price drops may take awhile to materialize.
Fooled by search,
“Substantial price drops may take a while to materialize.”
Maybe, if the current mindset holds (prices only go up). Once the paradigm shifts to “this sucker’s going down” it’s going to feel like we went over the cliff.
I imagine the current stage we are in to be the Wiley Coyote moment – over the edge of the cliff with no ground below but not quite falling yet.
Seriously dude, what are you smoking? You said Richmond homes are garbage? Compared to where and what? Richmond has many many more monster mansions than crap homes. Just because you can’t afford one you rip into it. Yes it’s overpriced, but way more nicer homes compared to Van east. You must be white and hate Chinese people.
Van guy: Don’t confuse overpriced with unaffordable. For all you know, Gord can afford to buy ten homes in Richmond. Doesn’t make them a good investment.
@El ninja
kudos to logic
i’d rather have a home in the eastside that survives an earthquake. and there are a lot of nice homes in the east side, don’t paint it with such a broad swath. doesn’t our mayor live in cedar cottage or champlain heights?
“doesn’t our mayor live in cedar cottage or champlain heights?”
Are you serious? No, the mayor lives in Shaughnessy.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Massive+gang+shooting+spree/3965577/story.html
Yes, Van guy, you’ve uncovered the real me. I hate Chinese people.
Spending too much time with Cam Good lately? He too theorized that those of us who spoke up about house pricing insanity were all a bunch of prejudiced pricks. Just a brilliant thought process.
But seriously folks, I’m referring to the one-bedroom, 1940′s-era, directly-under-the-flight-path, view-of-the-casino-parking-garage crack shacks that somehow pass for half-million-dollar homes in Earthquake Central. I’m refering to the horrific fact that it takes three quarters of a million dollars just to buy a liveable Richmond SFH.
What are *you* smoking?
The most annoying thing for me regarding this Task is the “City of Vancouver” approach. First, the underlying causes of unaffordability are not things that the CoV controls. Things like: artificially low interest rates, CMHC, immigration and foreign investment are not CoV jurisdiction. Secondly, this is a regional issue. The unaffordability problem radiates out from Vancouver across the entire lower mainland. Demographia’s Unaffordable Cities List showed both the Vancouver CMA and Abbotsford CMA as severely unaffordable. We need to address housing as a metropolitan region not just the City of Vancouver.
VREAA, that is some fine analysis. Your five points are exactly what the final report will consist of. In fact, it could be simplified even more:
1. Opening motherhood statement.
2. Filler
3. Closing motherhood statement.
The Filler would consist of various ways to siphon millions of taxpayers’ dollars into the pockets of the developers. And I’m not talking about theft or even greed here. It would not be a stretch to say that all parties to the transaction will believe they are honestly acting out of altruism and a concern for Vancouver’s future.
That’s the nice thing about wasteful boondoggles that use taxpayers’ money to enrich the wealthiest segment of society – there is nothing inherently unethical or immoral about them. Therefore, no one need feel guilty about the consequences.
who needs young families
WHEN WE CAN GET MORE PARTY MEMBERS
I don’t think this update I’m about to give on 6225 Balsam will be off-topic, given that the topic of this thread is Housing Craziness and Potentially Hapless Countermeasures in Vancouver.
Just went to the Open House. While I know what I’m providing is only anecdotal info. about one house, it may be helpful.
First, the listing realtor said she’d had “only” 10 people through in the first 90 minutes. She said that last year she would preside over Open Houses where there wasn’t room to exit by the front door, the crowds were so large.
9 more people came through in the last half hour, so a total of about 19 people saw the house, she said, including other realtors. The realtor still seemed to feel discouraged about the low numbers, but she did say she expected multiple bids.
I went back and forth to the house twice and spent almost an hour there total. I couldn’t talk to other people viewing it because with the exception of one multilingual Asian couple and two South Asian viewers, one of whom was I think a builder and one who was an investor (see below), the 13 other people/groups I saw throughout this process were all Mandarin-speaking.
Afterwards I did speak at length to that one other person who had attended the Open House with whom I could converse. The VREAA host has often reminded us that the speculative mania here depends a great deal on local speculators, and, as it turned out, this man was one. He had just sold his house a month ago and immediately bought another lot with an older house, where he said he and his extended family would live for some months until he saw what the market was doing. He had bought and sold at least two other properties in the past few years.
I asked him if he would bid on this house. He said he had done a lot of research in the past year as he had scouted various properties to buy and flip. He said he had considered buying this lot for the lot value, because according to his research, lot prices are still going up. (“Lots,” anyone who likes older, smaller Vancouver houses, as I do, refers to “teardowns.”) A block away from 6225 Balsam, a very small bungalow had just sold, he said, after a 12-party bidding war, for $1.6 million (standard-size lot). This man also described two lots at 38th and Dunbar, which had recently sold for $1.6 million and — a week later, the second lot, the exact same size — $1.9 million, respectively.
However, he also said that he noticed many new/newer houses are not selling at all, just sitting. This is what confuses him, he said. Though he was very bullish on Vancouver RE, like the listing realtor here, insisting that “Chinese people” (his words) will keep buying and don’t care if the market goes down (the listing realtor said to me simply, “Vancouver RE always goes up”), he said that he wondered if he did build a new house here if it would just sit like other new houses he’s observed doing so now. (Of course, as more people like start wondering the same thing, the market for lots may fall.)
This local investor, it should be noted, told me he’s a “licensed realtor.” I think he has a license not to work as a realtor on others’ behalf, but to avoid transactional costs as he speculates with local properties.
Finally, I had a chance to learn more from the current tenant at 6225 Balsam. He revealed that the current owners of the house had bought it last spring (at $1.4 million) with the thought of building on the lot themselves. Apparently they’ve changed their minds. Wonder if they also are worried about not being able to recover their initial investment by building?
One of the saddest aspects of all this for me is that, while it would need a lot of work, it’s in many ways a nice house, with historic features (some older, charming cabinetry, doors, doorknobs, etc., and hardwood floors, nearly all of which will of course go to the dump), and a nice yard. In a “normal” market, it would have been a good place for a young family.
Vesta, thanks for this remarkable investigative reporting; and so well relayed.
We will have to headline it. The remarks from the local speculator are important. His interest in buying lots yet puzzlement that finished product isn’t selling is ‘noteworthy’.
Thanks.
mainland Chinese do not buy new homes, they buy teardowns and build to their own specs
…but haven’t you been arguing all along that all these $2.5M-$5M+ westside new builds were being bought by precisely those buyers?
not me.
Hong Kong Chinese more likely to buy new contruction than mainlander
Then who are buying all the new McMansions?
don’t bother; consistency isn’t eyesthebye/formula1′s strong suit
Well I am new here but its a good bet somebody is chasing somebodies tail in circles. Are there not stats kept on foreign versus domestic buying? Surely the government would take an interest in that data. What country in the world sells property and does not inquire about residency. I bet Revenue Canada knows the answers!!!!
Farmer, no one knows the stats on foreign buying. For one thing, it’s most likely masked by using a local law firm or relative as the purchaser’s address. Census Canada would have to survey the buyers for a sampling of transactions to know what is going on.
No one has any interest in actually knowing, which is interesting in itself. Given how easy it is to launder money in a rising real estate market, it’s short-sighted as heck to turn a blind eye.
“Farmer, no one knows the stats on foreign buying. For one thing, it’s most likely masked by using a local law firm or relative as the purchaser’s address. ”
And the foreigners, being 1st time buyers, got a check for the refund of PTT in the mail from our government.
I say its wealthy Martians. Prove me wrong.
Thanks, Host. I enjoyed (well, laughed at, shuddered at) the graphics and your info/commentary at the top of this thread.
As long as you’re headlining this, I’ll correct a few typos:
Middle of 7th paragraph should read: (“Lots,” for anyone who likes older, smaller Vancouver houses, as I do, refers to “teardowns.”)
End of 8th paragraph should read: “Of course, as more people like him start wondering the same thing, the market for lots may fall.”
The young speculator I spoke to also complained that the listing realtor was acting “weird” because she was refusing to show anyone the title to the house, just saying that bids were due Wednesday. Does anyone know what this might mean, I wonder?
The selling agent is not obliged to disclose this info even if he has a copy of the title to a walk-in viewer. In all my previous property transactions, my lawyers did all the due diligence such as clean titles, no liens, no unpaid property taxes, no unpaid hydro and municipal charges outstanding.
A shy seller? Someone has to sell to recoup cash to pay off interest owed to bondholders? I;m pulling this one off my hair.
“she was refusing to show anyone the title to the house”
It is a bit weird but easily surmountable with a carefully-worded subject clause. If they have something to hide it’s not worth a no-subject bid but hey the market’s hot hot hot. DD is for losers.
One more interesting piece of information gleaned from the young speculator I spoke to at the Open House: he said that since December 1, only six new houses on the entire West Side of Vancouver have sold.
This does accord with my own (informal) observations that many of the houses for sale here now are quite new, and have been on the market for some time.
Interesting, as a walk down 16th west of Arbutus to Balaclava I spotted at least 3 sold signs yesterday, many for sale signs and there are quite a number of developments going on. Often across the street from the sold signs.
Yes, lots of For Sale signs, and razing/raising continuing, but the houses I see not selling do seem mostly to be the newer/newest ones — those gray ones built in the past few years that seem to be all the rage, or other ones I know were built on spec.
Don’t mean to be hogging the thread, but I just remembered one more interesting comment from the young speculator considering whether or not it would be worth his while to buy 6225 Balsam for the lot value.
When I suggested that some wealthy global investors might seek to buy in the U.S. instead of here, he said “Oh, no.” Then he gave as an example that “Chinese buyers have already bought up all the expensive places in San Francisco. They want to come HERE [i.e., to Vancouver].”
BPOE overconfidence?
vesta, you are probably the funniest commenter on this site, perhaps unintentionally. are you planning to write about this stuff someday? maybe a fiction about a couple of mountain men turned prospectors, turned real estate speculators as they make their way downstream from the headwaters of the fraser to the sea – partial parody of heart of darkness – apocalypse hao.
bahahahaha
hao means good, by the way
remember,
wo shi janada ren – wo mayo quai
“i’m a canadian – i don’t have any money”
that’s what i say to them, usually – lots of laughs all around – look at round eye, he knows his place, etc etc.
“are you planning to write about this stuff someday?”
What was Vesta just doing? Oh right typing, not writing.
@j. haven’t yet seen the current edition of the insanity mythologized. eg. day of the locust. i’m sure someone’s working on it. i’ve always liked heart of darkness, except now perhaps increasingly the urban jungle is darkest – where things make the least sense. btw, have a good recommendation to pass along: stealth of nations: the global rise of the informal economy, by neuwirth.
@chubster, no doubt there are some good reads that have made themselves available due to Vancouver’s real estate bubble. Combine Vesta with someone like condohype and you’ve got some decent good cop bad cop satire.
It’s all there; someone just needs to collate and hit the “publish” easy button.
Chubster — I’m honoured. But I can’t claim funniest (even unintentionally), when you, Nemesis, Raging Ranter, the Host, Jesse (Jesse — thanks for your gallantry!) and many others have been so witty. “Apocalypse Hao” — not bad!
(By the way, your unorthodox punctuation has never bothered me, unlike your mischievous friend Gatsby.)
I picture us all meeting someday in an Occupy Vacant Vancouver Housing rally, with Gord’s buddies from CTV filming the sit-in. I bet we could bring some witty signage.
“any current talk of trying to make changes to improve ‘housing affordability’ is rendered trivial and cosmetic.”… IllustriousEd…
Funny you should say that… ‘cuz, ya know, Ed… RandyNewman did… well, sort of… have an idea….
Thanks, Nem; Gotta luv Randy N.
Apart from the humour (and he’s written so many wonderfully funny songs), the soul emotion of “Baltimore“, “I Think It’s Going to Rain Today“, “Birmingham“, “Dixie Flyer“, etc.
“Broken windows and empty hallways
A pale dead moon in the sky streaked with gray
Human kindness is overflowing
And I think it’s going to rain today”
I like the polite applause at the end. Newman should have gone gospel, makes for better live albums.
Got a quick chat yesterday with of friend of mine who thinks she can only get rich by buying condos…
She asked me: “my friend is selling her condo. Its assessed value is $610K, but he’s selling at a discount, at $580K. Are you interested?”
I couldn’t help but laughed, and told her: “well, if he’s offering me his place at 50% off, I might consider it”. And then, I made a comment: “the market is dead right now” to which she replied, in a very puzzled way: “oh really”.
I didn’t elaborate, it was simply not worth it. Soon enough, she’ll realize the mistake she’s made. Speculators, as per Vreaa’s definition, are soon going to wake-up, from a dreamy mode to a financial nightmare.
Yup, the condo market is toast. No land and priced to make developers $. And in the end, the consumer gets screwed. The 1% always wins. The 99%, are slaves.
Speculators will indeed soon wake up. Some of them seem to be rustling from the slumber already as sales drop hard and listings sit forlorn and unwanted despite the hype.
We are coming to the denial stage where disbelief that the ride is ending will slowly sink into some thick skulls. Sadly, the denial stage precedes the “oh my God, this cannot be happening to us” stage by only a handful of months. They don’t get to enjoy either stage for long before the “oh crap, we are so screwed” stage arrives.
These are all official real estate bubble terms, I might point out.
Now is there an expression that defines how all the winners (recent buyers) can end up being the biggest losers in life by not having understood nor read the writing on the wall? Can you imagine being condemned for decades to paying for a million dollar tear-down that never actually gets torn?
Poor saps are going to actually have to live in the dives they bought.
hope so
we should keep a web blog of attempted flips
and after a period of time, ring the door bells and ask if they’re selling, etc.
Or ring the doorbells and then run like hell while shouting succckkkeeeeeerrrrs! Way more juvenile but lots of fun.
Or how about this, dropping leaflets in the neighborhood door to door that say “Told you so”. Is that too mean?
I think the stages look better in French.
http://www.bulle-immobiliere.org/drupal/content/voeux-2012-0
(Scroll down to second chart. That first chart is the actual average price chart, not a demo model.)
Now is there an expression that defines how all the winners (recent buyers) can end up being the biggest losers in life by not having understood nor read the writing on the wall?
Yes there is. It rhymes with ‘duct’.
Merde Noire!!!
That is one scary chart AG. Wow. The line for Paris looks eerily like Vancouver and if that is not parabolic then what is? So the shit is on the verge of hitting the fan there too. These things do run out of steam once vertical.
It is beyond comprehension how any normal person can look at a chart like that and see opportunity for even more growth. Worse, they don’t see the danger.
Proves an education is worthless.
Quite right. You meant plucked, correct?
For those bearish prognosticators who were hit hard in early 2009, only to have a massive rally take place over the subsequent 2+ years, I don’t think anyone should be surprised at anything.
We can call the market “toast” or admit our powerlessness over the direction of real estate prices.
Well, Jesse… as we used back in the lab before switching on the HadronCollider [or was that prior to inserting our earplugs and donning our AhmadinejadGoggles, 'Home On The Range'?] – “Anything’s possible in a QuantumUniverse but some things are more probable.”…
BloomBerg’s take on that this morning?….
[BloomBerg] – Toronto Bubble Risk Topping New York in Condos
…”Toronto has more skyscrapers and high-rises under construction than any North American city — almost three times as many as New York — stoking debate on whether the condominium market in Canada’s largest city is headed for a U.S.-style correction as prices rise and household borrowing hits a record. Canadian lenders including Toronto-Dominion Bank last week raised mortgage rates to cool off the housing market.”…
http://tinyurl.com/7r7uncz
Yeah but you ever been to New York? Ick.
The world is one giant grand canonical state. There are always outliers, even in a world with gravity, for a time at least.
Ah deck chair and Titanic. I see what you did there.
Everyone’s taste is different but for the price of a teardown on Van West, you can get one of these unique homes that IMO has more bragging rights:
http://ca.shine.yahoo.com/5-bedrooms-with-crazy-ideas.html
Is this a joke????? Olga Ilich’s late brother was the head of Progressive Construction!
Canada RE 54% overvalued… just behind Belgium at 56%…
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-overpriced-housing-markets-in-the-developed-world-2012-2?op=1
Vancouver’s affordability issues mentioned in a blog about visual effects:
http://www.digitalgypsy.com/vfxlog/archives/2012/02/vfx-in-vancouver.php
Do not worry, local “schools” in this field will make sure to funnel eager wage slaves brokered in student debt into these roles, the clearly skilled will leave for more affordable pastures. However, as this city has demonstrated with its internships and unpaid work in the creative fields, many will take the savage beating to try and eke it out here.
“Having said that, we’re sure that there are members of this task force who are well-meaning, and have a genuine desire to attempt to ‘solve’ the housing ‘problem’ that faces Vancouver. We’ll be genuinely interested to see what they come up with.
Forgive us our jadedness… ”
Forgive my jadeness as well, but who cares if there are caring people on this committee/task force/clusterf*&k? How could they possibly solve this challenge? Or, to paraphrase the great Owen Wilson: What in our history together makes you think any politician/consultant/industry combination can actually solve a problem? They have a direct interest in maintaining the problem.
Talk is cheap. Whiskey and cigarettes and housing cost money. Want affordable housing? Get people more money, have real estate prices collapse or sell less for more per sq. ft.
What else can you do? The majority of the cost of housing is land. Land in the Lower Mainland continues to be in high demand. As the world becomes crazier with each passing day Vancouver looks better and better. Disagree if you want, but the belief that decade long mass hysteria is the explanation isn’t realistic. Cheap money and hidden inflation are closer to the mark.
“Cheap money and hidden inflation are closer to the mark.”
Then why the market in Kelowna is already in free-fall? Why Edmonton and Calgary’s market are already deflating? Do these cities look worse and worse as the world becomes crazier with each passing day?
The mass hysteria has been assisted by the cheap money.. the two aren’t mutually exclusive.
Has anyone else noticed that condo/apartments listed on mls.ca no longer have the strata/condo fees included ?
A new way to hide information from the public, gotta love to hate those sneaky f*ckers.
My bad, I just found one downtown:
http://www.REALTOR.ca/propertyDetails.aspx?propertyId=11510600&PidKey=-692041627
To quote Despair.com:
“GOVERNMENT. If you think the problems we create are bad, just wait until you see our solutions.”
http://www.despair.com/government.html
LOL! Or wait till our economy goes the way of the piigs, to acknowledge easy credits are a presage of coming doom.
Makaya:
Vancouver is not the same as Kelowna, which is a small town, or Alberta cities, which I don’t think impress people from other places as much as Vancouver. Note I’m not defending the prices here, but I have heard many, many buyers of Vancouver real estate say “When I looked out the window of the plane I was blown away and decided I needed to buy some property here”. I’ve been dealing with foreign buyers for 20 yrs+. The ones I know wouldn’t buy in Kelowna.
It’s also a fact that a strong Vancouver market buoys the rest of the province, but any weakness at all kills outlying markets.
VREAA:
Mass hysteria? Or mass hyperbole? A large segment of the population pays current value for property here. They don’t overpay based on market value, even if they overpay in your opinion (there’s really little argument that they pay above traditional fundamental values). Disagreeing with you, however, doesn’t make them hysterical, especially those who bought to shelter money (which they have) or those who have been making profits. It really seems tough to me to make a serious mass hysteria argument.
“When I looked out the window of the plane I was blown away and decided I needed to buy some property here”
Really ! This has to be amongst the most delusional and simplistic argument to buy overpriced RE.
Rob (Chipman) ->
1. A speculative mania is indeed a form of low-grade chronic mass hysteria. Everybody takes on the same fantasy, and behaves as though it is a reality.
2. “A large segment of the population pays current value for property here” – such is always the case in a speculative mania.
3. “They don’t overpay based on market value” – huh? (see: circular argument)
4. “Disagreeing with you, however, doesn’t make them hysterical” – Granted, this is a matter of opinion. You have your opinion, I have mine.
For the record, Rob, do you see the potential for price drops in Vancouver RE?
If so, how much?
Just pick up a copy of the excellent “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”. Mass hysteria is a very accurate description but only blatantly obvious after the bubble pops.
“The don’t overpay . . . ” – if offering $500K above list is not overpaying, what the hell is?
600K above