“I am looking at buying in Vancouver and torn between the obvious paranoia of some people who think the Van RE market is in a bubble and will crash and my belief that Vancouver will always be a safe place to park you money, as long as it is quality. Let me explain – buying a condo which has no direct interest in the underlying land is always a risk, if it has no unique features, (like to die for view) or in an area where where future new buildings will sprout up like daisies on a warm spring day, these are not good investments and over the long run will depreciate. Buying your typical 3BR home in the valley or suburbs with an hour commute, again not a good investment. I believe real estate which has a land component, duplex or Single Family house within 30-45 minutes of the CBD, in a good area will hold it’s value and although we may be in a market where increases are minimal, over the next decade Van RE will prove to be an excellent investment. The reason I believe this are 1) Having traveled all over Canada, given a choice Vancouver is the place to live. 2) China and the Asian Pacific view Vancouver as a safe place to purchase in order to diversify overall investments position, regardless of current market prices this will continue, soon the rich Indians (from India) will be coming. 3) ALR, US Border, Mountains all limit the supply of land in the lower mainland, combine this with my buy RE with a land component close to the CBD and you have a winning formula, providing of course you can afford it.
I have a lot of sympathy for working Vancouverites looking to get into the market, people who grew up in Vancouver and want to stay and raise their families, yet can not afford the market and see their dream of providing for their family like their parents did fade.Hey it’s not fair but it does not change the situation. If you are one of these angry people who desperately want the market to crash or use screwed logic to justify renting and your pessimism, I suggest you consider moving. If I was young and unable to get into the Vancouver RE market, I would move to a place like Saskatchewan where real estate is cheap, the economy is strong and prospects are good, sure the winters crap but it doesn’t rain. Having left BC 20 years ago, I would never be in the situation I am now, able to come back and buy quality real estate, looking through global glasses and liking what I see.”
- Sam Waterman at VREAA, 25 Jan 2012 8:16pm
Sam, it doesn’t seem like you’re really “torn” at all.
If what you say is genuinely what you believe, you’re clearly going to go ahead and buy a Vancouver SFH.
Please keep in touch, and we’ll see how that has worked out for you in coming years.
We humbly disagree with Sam, being one of the “paranoid” few who believe Vancouver is in a bubble.
We predict that all sectors of the market will implode, SFHs as much as any other.
Remember, SFHs have been bid up through the mania, with people using the very exclusivity that Sam cites to justify that much more stratospheric pricing. SFHs are, by degree, as overpriced as condos or townhouses or any other sub-sector you care to name. In the same way, no geographical areas are bullet-proof.
We archive this post, along with others in a similar vein, under ‘The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength’ sidebar category. These kinds of arguments are very common during speculative manias.