“I left Vancouver in 2005. Sure glad I did. When I go back to visit family, the conversation usually turns to RE with snooty relatives boasting about their one million dollar houses. I can’t wait for the housing bubble to pop and humble these folks. It will be a tough fall to reality for Vancouver.”
- Uh Oh Canada at greaterfool.ca 6 Jan 2012 10:37pm
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- These Compare Favorably With The Other Home Affordability Services Offered, Such As The Washingtonmutual Mortgage Loan Modification ! | vybogyciqony on Author Of ‘Real Estate Investing for Canadians for Dummies’ “jumped into the market 3 years ago with a 2 BR apartment in Mount Pleasant”; Reports Ownership Cheaper Than Renting; Leaves Out Math
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Type of Anecdote
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- 03. Changed my Life (103)
- 04. Changed my Career (38)
- 05. Where do Buyers get the money? (958)
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- 17. The Froogle Scott Chronicles (27)
- 18. Spot The Speculator (171)
- 19. BlastRadiusPostCards (17)
- 20. The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength (70)
- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (41)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
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- 29. Bubblespeak (1)
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Blogroll
- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
- 08 Canada Bubble
- 09 Rob Chipman's blog
- 10 YatterMatters
- 11 condohype [retired; archives available]
- 12 vancouver (un)real estate
- 13 Agent Will's Stats [retired]
- 14 Landlord Rescue
- 15 The Economic Analyst
- 16 Canadian Housing Price Charts
- 17 Hoodsurf [retired Jun 2011]
- 18 World Housing Bubble
- 19 Vancouver Price Drop
- 20 North American Economics
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Latest Anecdotes:
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”
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“I can’t wait for the housing bubble to pop and humble these folks.”
Here freakin here.
Well until they sell and pocket that $1M. Then even if housing busts, it wouldn’t affect that much and they still got more $$$ from the house than they could probably earn from job!
Sure. But not everyone can sell at these prices. Any significant increase in selling will pop the bubble.
That’s the strange thing about bubbles; only a very small percentage of participants actually get away with gains.
Indeed, In another fit of tragedy sales are in the pooper just when pricesare at their lowest.
Ninetonite writes:
“Renting is always more expensive than a mortgage payment to buy the same dwelling. It’s simple economics.”
Just lifted the above quote from this Globe and Mail story:
I find it absolutely astounding that people are still repeating this silly dogma. It’s like realtors have done a giant jedi mind trick on the masses, and now millions walk around uttering real estate truisms to each other as though under some sort of hypnosis.
OK, apparently I linked straight to the comments and not the story. At least I didn’t blow the embedded link this time. I usually do.
I did the math, my landlord subsidizes my housing by just over $1000/month. That is calculated assuming constant resale value and the figure is actually much higher if you allow for price depreciation.
Did my math about two months ago. I calculated an additional $900 per month if I bought the place I’m renting. Mortgage rates have fallen since then, so it may be about $700 or $800. But that’s just monthly costs. I did not include the down payment, nor closing fess, nor the lost investment income (opportunity costs) on that money.
Apparently, I shouldn’t count those costs, since they are more than made up for with “the intangibles of owning.” So I’ve been told. I’m starting to question if anyone actually owns a calculator these days.
Kids, if you don’t own a calculator, use Excel. Can’t use Excel? Use the calculator app on your iPhone. Still can’t add or subtract? Then buy a house.
lol!
Finally – a rational article in the MSM on cdn RE:
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/65694–prediction-the-canadian-housing-market-will-crash
I bought a house in east Vancouver (20% down payment) in 2001. Since then the value of this house has more than doubled. Even if the end of the world (bubble pops) happens, do you really think house values will decrease more than 100%?? Even if this happened, I would still have more than 20% equity in this house. I hear house prices in Edmonton are affordable, so go move there..
Mike -> Please share your math again, so we know what you mean.
When you say “100%”, do you mean “50%”?
.
I don’t think anybody here expects house values to drop below zero.
Most (all?) people on this blog would tell you that those who bought in 2001 and did not turn their home into an ATM will be safe once the prices crash.
What would you categorize as a crash? 20-30%, 30-50%?? Also, what do you base the inevitable crash on? I’d like to hear more specific arguments for ‘major correction’ scenario.
Read the bear blogs and you will find the arguments.
Yes. 50% of its current value. I meant lose 100% of the price appreciation. Hope this clears things up..