“The nice lady at the bank told me that I really should be looking at a house as an investment since house prices always go up. I replied, well until they go down. She looked at me as if were from another planet and said well, not in Vancouver.”

“Linda (a wealthy woman who rents) ran into her account manager. “He told me that the bank is forecasting stable prices and perhaps a small softening based on what’s happening in China. He then asked if we were getting ready to buy yet. I told him that we were happy renting especially since a home we desire in the neighbourhood we like would cost between $1.5 to $2 million. He then inquired if that was our budget. We could certainly ‘afford’ – whatever that means -  a home in that price range. I told him however, that it wasn’t in the cards because we weren’t interested in a fat mortgage. He looked absolutely offended as if I’d launched a personal attack. Then, the nice lady at the bank, who had overheard this conversation told me that I really should be looking at a house as an investment since house prices always go up. And I replied, well until they go down. She looked at me as if were from another planet and said well, not in Vancouver. At that point I realized that I was from another planet – the one inhabited by sane people.”
- anecdote relayed by Garth Turner at greaterfool.ca 12 Jan 2012

25 Responses to “The nice lady at the bank told me that I really should be looking at a house as an investment since house prices always go up. I replied, well until they go down. She looked at me as if were from another planet and said well, not in Vancouver.”

  1. A friend of mine said it was a good time to buy in Richmond. I’m convinced!

  2. and Garth also assumed that Linda has a few million dollars cash in the bank, earns a couple hundred thousand dollars a year, can buy any houses with cash, but is frugal with her money!
    Is Linda available cuz some men in this blog want to marry her.

  3. I am glad I live on the planet inhabited by sane people, and that (amazingly) most of my friends live there too. I have never been pressured by friends or family to buy a house, even though I’ve got 2 kids and a 3rd on the way. My husband and I have discussed multiple times that of all the people we know (most of whom rent), very few could afford to buy a house. Of the 2 or 3 that could, we doubt they would, as they are single and have no need to buy a house.

  4. I’ve had a few banking experiences in the last year where a) the CSR was shocked when she saw my bank account balance (I guess they don’t see too many people with savings?) and b) where they asked if I would like a mortgage, line of credit, or credit card. I’ve also had the bank call to ask if I was happy with my service and then proceed trying to sell me all sorts of financial services. All of these exchanges have resulted in looks or comments which lead me to believe the bank people think I’m from planet crazy. But I also have the impression that they are in fact a little jealous of my allergic-to-debt, with savings to boot, lifestyle.

  5. http://www.hellovancity.com/2012/01/10/greater-vancouver-real-estate-market-update-january-2012/

    According to the above post there were 700 homes above $3,000,000 sold in 2011. According to my Chinese realtor approx. 300 were sold to mainland Chinese in Jan.-Feb. 2011. Does anyone else have any data to verify this?

    The same realtor said it is much slower this time around with Chinese new year just a few days away.

    • So basically HAM bought 150 homes per month based on your realtor’s sample, so it’s not hard to figure that pretty much all 700 homes over #3 million were sold to HAM. And I thought HAM isn’t an important factor in Vancouver home prices!

  6. As a displaced Vancouverite (living in the SF Bay Area), I’m a bit out of touch with valuations. What’s the price-to-rent ratio these days for one of these $1.5M houses?

    • it’s pretty much a raging contest to see who can get the biggest mortgage. probably about $3k/mo.

    • Aston – my SFH rental was assessed at a million, which seems fair given recent sales in the area, and rent is $2050/month. We pay utilities.

    • Wow, sounds like a great time to be a renter in Van.

      Here where I am in Mountain View (near the Google campus) it costs about $3k/month to rent a $1M house. I’m paying $2500/month for a $700k place right now, and I pay for water and utilities. Of course, the dynamics are much different than in Canada (30-year fixed mortgages, bubble burst over 4 years ago, etc.)

      • howdy, i was formerly 94040. totally different situation. bay area has the income to back it up.

      • Very true, Chubster. Even with the higher incomes here, I’m still hesitant to buy in the Bay Area. The bubble is still deflating, and with interest rates having nowhere to go but up, housing is poised to feel more pain in the coming years. Vancouver has a long, painful road ahead.

      • yes, of course. staying liquid and flexible will be best for a while. we sold in 06 and rented another couple yrs in cupertino before leaving the area. i was there for a week in dec. saw several very large tracks of condo/apt construction in and near cisco campuses. interesting to see despite bust. developers either getting huge subsidies and/or the density build greatly reduces cost/unit.

      • “bay area has the income to back it up”.

        wealth buys detached homes in both Vancouver and Bay area – income AND cash.

      • omg, f1! ok, i’ll take you face value here. go drive around south bay area (use google maps) – see the wealth/value creation (apple, cisco, amat, lockheed, intel, google, adobe, oracle – list is just starting and those are the visible ones). then, think what does van have to measure up to this. consider, does it make sense that van RE valuations are more than 50% higher? of course not. does it make sense that van just has a bunch of fools willing to marry themselves to bigger mortgages? i think so.

        btw, nobody complains about foreign investment there. absolutely unheard of. plenty of smart cookies who know what to do with capital dumped in their laps. what a crock that angle is – sorry, some of you truly believe in it but it is a crock, pure and simple.

      • “see the wealth/value creation (apple, cisco, amat, lockheed, intel, google, adobe, oracle – list is just starting and those are the visible ones)”

        chubster,
        bay area $ is generated in the bay area
        Vancouver area $ is generated elsewhere and imported.

      • F1, let’s revisit this question in about a yr, maybe even 6 months. If you understand stockman, that particular wealth generation platform is finished or near finished. BoCH is curtailing us debt purchases, raising rates to combat price inflation. Also putting curbs on ppty speculation. Asian RE markets have tanked. I think ham is done. There won’t be any more. In fact, you may begin to see reverse ham. Time will tell.

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