- we don’t yet know who created this graphic, but, there it is… [hat-tip Dan at VCI]
PS: The current gold bull is not yet close to its end-stage. It will likely end with a massive upside blowoff, likely before 2020. And we can’t comment on oil. All the others are verified bubbles. – ed.
Gold will top when we are on the cusp of deflation. Last time it came with 20% interest rates. This playbook is different I think.
Imagine trading a house for a tulip bulb!
Imagine trading a million dollars for a house!
playing with the scales, you can make almost anything look like this. interesting what are the perceived bubbles in public psyche though.
You CAN, but these ARE bonafide bubbles.
disagree on gold/oil. know less about oil. to be a bubble, most people have to own it. that disqualifies gold. you could argue about whether it’s overvalued however – boils down to whether you believe people will be responsible.
Didn’t see Apple stock on there, albeit i’s not a bubble it’s just a justifiable 32x 10Y gain
Unlike all the example charts, Apple’s share price appears to reflect the company’s fundamentals. There is a lot of risk in future Apple earnings given how rapidly innovation in technology occurs.
Oil is currently not a bubble as it’s still priced below milk on a per unit basis (well maybe not in BC) and it’s not like it’s demand is declining while it’s finding cost continues to move higher. Oil will trade above 150$/bbl again. The gold bubble has popped based on technical indicators and could languish at current prices for quite awhile before heading back toward 1000$/oz.
The gold bubble has not yet popped by technical indicators.
Look at a 15 year chart.
Hasn’t had a parabolic blow-off phase yet; more important, man in street is selling not buying gold: haven’t had the line-ups around the block to buy that will mark the end of the gold bull.
What would the pin prick factor have to be for Vancouver’s bubble to pop ? Canadian or US economic downturn ? (would a European downturn qualify ?). How about interest rate hikes, 1%, 2% ? Tax increases, municipal, provincial ? No new FTBs ? Dwindling foreign investors ? What else ?
Fair question, but we have always thought that the most important factor would be a fall in prices. This may sound circular but it isn’t necessarily so.
We believe the ‘psyche-pumps’ are now primed… a critical mass of Vancouver owners and prospective buyers have heard enough about the possibility of the existence of the bubble (lots in MSM in recent weeks).
All we need is to drop a small crystal of ‘price drop’ into the super-saturated solution, and we’ll get ‘instant pop’.
BTW, any of the things you list would help it along. But it’s ready to ‘go’ without any help; anytime.
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