“For me personally this spring will determine whether or not I buy a house. If things crack up, I will sit tight, if nothing happens and the global economy improves I might buy. I am sick to death of renting a crap house for 3k per month!!!”
- paulb. (a Vancouver realtor) at vancouvercondo.info 31 Dec 2011
“Strongly considering buying a townhome in Whistler, but don’t want to step in yet if there will be further drops.”
- MultipleOffer at RETalks 2 Jan 2012 9:53pm
These two prospective buyers plan to step back if the market shows weakness.
We believe that the majority of prospective buyers plan the same strategy.
Falling prices will cause demand to drop. This will beget lower prices; and so on.
- vreaa
hi, I have been reading your post. are you sure planning to buy a house? What if global economy gets worse next year? even though this year show improvement.
All respect to paulb for his input at VCI, but SERIOUSLY? You’re sick of renting crap for $3000/month but you’re ready to dump ALL your craptacular bucks (presumably) into BUYING into the most overpriced, bubble-icious, rain-laden market in North America, at precisely the same time everyone’s running out of money, the Chinese are retreating, the cost of living is exploding, and the entire, rotten-to-the-core, built-on-lies pyramid scheme has nowhere to go but down?
Dude, as a realtor, you have access to what’s *really* going on. I have no idea if you’re reading this, but if you are, I have but a single question. Why?
No disrespect to paulb, but he’s a realtor and needs to feed his family. He may have no intention whatsoever to buy, but simply wants to instill in some readers’ mind that are patiently waiting to buy that in spring, that it might be a good time to buy if the situation doesn’t deteriorate… First you gain the trust, and then take advantage of it…
Makaya, I read it the same way, I think you’re bang on!
I suspect he is honest about his intention to buy.
I also think it’s unwise if he does.
It must be very challenging being an insightful and honest realtor in this town at present (and yes, they likely do exist).
If I were a realtor I’d take a very market-agnostic “I’m just the broker” approach.
i’m just doing my job
i’m just following orders
Here is an interesting comment posted by Just Jack on the HH Victoria blog. The situation in the Gulf Island is precarious to say the least… Price are down to 2003 levels!
“So how bad can a real estate market really get?
You would have to look to the Gulf Islands to see the future.
Today there are some 251 homes for sale with 5 homes selling in December. That’s 50 months of inventory. That’s a bit silly, so looking at the average number of sales over the last three months gives us 15 months of inventory. And that 15 months of inventory has been around for at least a year now in the Gulf Islands.
So, how about prices in the Gulf Islands. In December, one of the only five sales is of a shack on 5 acres having a water view for $265,000. The previous owner bought the property for $275,000 in November 2003. Which is close to wiping out the entire rise in prices over the last decade. OUCH!
What would that mean for the core municipalities of Victoria? That would be a roll back from our current home median of $577,000 to $325,000.
A drop of some 44% in prices, even with the interest rates of today. All that is needed is to have the months of inventory to be 15 months over the course of a year.
Is that likely? Sure, right now the core is experiencing close to 5 months of inventory which is more than triple what the core districts experienced in 2007. The Western Communities is experiencing close to 10 months of inventory.
And no one has said that the Gulf Island market has collapsed – it’s just corrected. What would be happening is that our market would revert back to when a single person working in a slightly above average government vocation could buy a starter home within 10 miles of the downtown core. Say a 1000 square foot rancher on a standard lot in the Gorge for around $225,000 at today’s interest rates. Using no more than 25% of their gross income on home payments and property taxes. That leaves cash for holidays, utilities and the kids university education.
Most people looking to buy their first home are going to need that low debt ratio of 25% or less of their gross income for housing because of the uncertainty in the economy.
And if you’re not in the government and work in construction. Pack up your bags and move to where you can find work – because it ain’t gonna be in Victoria.
That’s not a market collapse – that’s just a correction.”
Interesting craiglist ad for sell by owner
http://vancouver.en.craigslist.ca/rch/apa/2783532854.html
That’s coincidental. I just looked up my place that I sold in 2007 to see the assessment. Assessment has gone up but I discovered that the unit was sold on May 5 2011 for $1,651,000. You may say wow, expensive, but I sold it to the guy for $1,650,000. In 4 years, he lost whatever he had paid on taxes and fees. The only ones who win are the realtors.
So adjusted for inflation they’re essentially selling the property for less then they paid 4 years ago, and they’re wording it like they’re doing this out of the goodness of their heart. How laughably disingenuous of them.