BC Business Magazine – ‘Housing Has Become Vancouver’s Toxic Asset’ – “As a result of this massive monetization of housing, the entire city’s social and economic scene is under intense pressure and is threatened with collapse.”

“Housing is becoming a toxic financial asset that threatens the entire region.
Before we get into it, let’s look at what a toxic asset is. In the U.S., sub-prime mortgages were a toxic asset because they were converted into financial instruments (derivatives) that had no real value, but were continuously traded for ever-increasing prices until, eventually, the banks that were promoting them couldn’t back them any more. We’re all familiar with the results – massive writedowns and a whopping recession that’s still playing out.
Vancouver is undergoing something similar… because it’s allowing housing to be bid ever higher and far beyond its intrinsic value. As a result of this massive monetization of housing, the entire city’s social and economic scene is under intense pressure and is threatened with collapse.”

“The houses had become just another abstract financial instrument.”

“Well, eventually, it has to stop. When houses are continually traded for ever higher prices, the entire balance of population and housing becomes extremely distorted. Eventually it reaches such a distortion that it breaks.
Throughout history, we have seen that asset inflation can’t go on forever. Either a giant crash comes eventually, or – if there’s some sense around – authorities step in to slowly deflate the bubble to prevent catastrophe.”
- excerpts from Tony Wanless’ commentary [BC Business, 2 Dec 2011] on Sandy Garossino’s 28 Dec 2011 blog post.

46 Responses to BC Business Magazine – ‘Housing Has Become Vancouver’s Toxic Asset’ – “As a result of this massive monetization of housing, the entire city’s social and economic scene is under intense pressure and is threatened with collapse.”

  1. “or – if there’s some sense around – authorities step in to slowly deflate the bubble to prevent catastrophe.”

    That’s what I don’t want, 30 years of gradual price/value normalization. Those of us without RE would not own in our lifetimes, or we will move, or we will own a million dollar crackhouse. I say pop that bubble then deal with the recession. I look with envy on the US RE market right now, because a good salary will get you something beautiful. Pop the damn thing.

    • Renters Revenge

      I agree 100%. Regulatory interference has what got us here. Let’s not tinker with this any more, it will only make it worse.
      This is a federal government issue involving CMHC, BoC, and Immigration. Write your MP, write Jim Flaherty, write Mark Carney. City of Vancouver politicos or even BC gov can do very little about this.

    • Don’t worry. It’s impossible to “slowly deflate the bubble”. It will either crash or continue to go up for a long time.

  2. BSuite: “..a good salary will get you something beautiful.”

    And it should. Much better for the community. Reward hard work with a decent home. “Beautiful”, even better.

    • Exactly VREAA, that really is the way it should be.

    • Renters Revenge

      The whole social order in metro van is seriously mixed up. Hard work, a good job, and a good salary is nothing compared to dumb-ass luck flipping residential real estate. Makes me sick.
      When this pops it is not going to be pretty because there are a bunch of very smug, entitled people running around thinking that they were so clever leveraging 20:1 buying and selling houses and living off HELOCs. When that gets taken away and they have to live on their service industry jobs paying off an underwater mortgage there is going to be a whole bunch of misery. Add in reduced gov services and rising taxes and people will be fleeing, not snapping up what used to be “beautiful” homes.
      It will take a long time to reset the social order here and to reestablish a more merit based community. There is a whole generation that has grown up and lived here who has never experienced anything other than this twisted, artificial, bubblicious flake of a community.
      Yes, reset is necessary but don’t expect a pancea 2 weeks later.

      • NOW IS NO TIME FOR MERIT

        BRING IN MORE COMMUNIST PARTY APPARATCHIKS AND THEIR GRANDPARENTS

      • Royce McCutcheon

        @keeperofthederp: That should be on a T-shirt, ALL CAPS included.

      • Ralph Cramdown

        When that gets taken away and they have to live on their service industry jobs paying off an underwater mortgage there is going to be a whole bunch of misery.

        In the US, they went through a few years of trying to convince the hoi-polloi that walkaway/”strategic default” was morally wrong. But there, you DID have the option of grinding it out for the remainder of your 15 or 30 year term, if you had a fixed rate and could make the payments.

        Here, you’ll KNOW that, come renewal time in 5 years or less, nobody will finance you if you’re underwater, and there will be a power of sale. Who’s going to keep paying knowing that?

  3. BSuite: “Pop the damn thing.”

    We can have it pop quick (by letting it play out ‘naturally’, or by tightening lending), or we can attempt to prop it up through policies aimed at slowing its deflation, via various band-aids. It’s already being propped up by easy lending and CMHC policy.
    Either way, people will be hurt, there is no way of avoiding that.
    It seems that one reason that many public figures avoid talking about the RE market is that almost any outcome involves a good deal of people suffering hardship.
    This is ‘baked into the bubble’, there is no way of avoiding it. One is not a pessimist to point it out.
    If you are someone advocating an attempt to land it slowly, who would you suggest the buyers should be these coming years?

  4. it may have peaked already. not unreasonable to think -20% off in 2012, followed by similar in 2013. pov -> not owning for a while is a small price to pay compared to getting totally wiped out and having to restart. also, if you follow the us data, there is no hurry to catch a falling knife. prices are not going to bounce hard.

    • Last time prices crashed in Vancouver they rebounded hard. The big question is how many knife catchers there will be the second time round.

      • We’d expect there to be a bounce at 2009 lows.
        That’s why technical analysis has some validity… a subset of prospective buyers will step in saying “this is where it bounced last time”. Thus there will be a bit of ‘support’ at those levels.
        When that support fails (on ‘second test’), look out below.

      • the top only comes into perspective afterwards. the 2008 was not so much a crash as just buyers going on strike for a while during the ww liquidation binge. more like a big hiccup on the way up. this time around, all the main drivers are topping out. i think the most significant ones for vanRE are the apparent topping of the household credit chart – which may indicate saturation limit, and the action in the asian ppty markets.

  5. Slowly deflating a bubble. OK then. Good luck trying to convince the rest of the province and country why they should bail out Vancouver’s speculative malfeasance.

    • But, if you think about it, jesse, this is what even those commentators with apparently sincere intentions are calling for… trying to engineer a soft-landing. As you point out, they’d have to use somebody else’s funds to do that.
      BSuite is correct: let it pop.

    • maybe gregor can pull a hank paulson and hold the country hostage?

      (or is that what the CMHC is for?)

    • At the federal level I have doubts any monies will be made available to bail out Vancouver specifically; quite the opposite: to ensure a so-called mean reversion Vancouver must crash harder than other regions.

      The provincial government may step in but again we’re dealing with scarce resources. The rest of the province, for any of those who bother to look, isn’t doing so hot. Any prospective measures to prop up prices will come at the expense of other regions, so look for “solutions” that don’t involve direct expenditures or government revenue impairment.

      Here are a few ideas at the provincial and muni level, and none are new. Remember revenues are sacred so incentives — whether effective or not — need to be found that can be kept “off the operating books”:
      1) Allow homeowners to use the lowest of the past two years’ assessments for calculating property tax
      2) Pushing through often-unpopular zoning changes to ensure adequate construction permit cash flows
      3) Mortgage and construction loan guarantees

      If property prices start showing prolonged weakness, the very things blamed for high prices will be the things begged for by those who have the most to lose.

  6. In the meantime, Australia, the other nut real estate market, is showing some cracks… One in four has trouble paying off the mortgage!

    Watch this video from BBC: Mortgage Misery in Australia
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16062699

  7. And in China, prices are starting to crash as well, at least for the ghost cities…

    “Timber! Home prices are crashing in China’s ‘ghost city’”
    http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/07/timber-home-prices-are-crashing-in-chinas-ghost-city/

    Whoever is bullish on China should really look at these pictures
    http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-ghost-cities-2011-5

    How can that be sustainable?

    • funny, i just witnessed a massive private dinner sponsored by Chinese RE developers for an International underwriting firm.

      believe me, there was no bear whining to be heard, just clink clink clink, ha ha ha

      • Vancouverites should know all about private underwriters. Ask for all the money upfront is my free advice, and don’t think you’ll get favourable terms either: a fancy dinner just gets you in the door.

        1 percent… 1 percent… 1 percent…

      • Psst… a BakerStreetIrregular masquerading as the event AV/Media dude was covering that one for Nem…

        http://tinyurl.com/8x5ldan

        PS – the ‘obligatory decadent banquet scene’ is a stock HollyWood narrative convention normatively employed to ‘set up’ an antagonist for the inevitable ‘reversal ‘o fortune’ (i.e. – to heighten/contrast an antagonist’s impending decline vis a vis their prior stature/spoils… as well as to differentiate them, in moral terms, from ‘worthy protagonists’) – in that regard/this instance, will life imitate art?

      • Nem, it took me some time, but I’m starting to really enjoy your posts ;)

  8. A bit off-topic, but somewhat relevant to corruption going unprosecuted in Canada. A couple of months ago I wrote:

    “One thing I prefer about the US over Canada is that the FBI and the district attorneys have the balls to go after corrupt figures. Yes, Blagojevich was corrupt, but the FBI nailed him. Compare this to the BC Rail fiasco, where pretty much everyone got away scot-free.”
    http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2011/09/24/i-do-not-see-this-trend-of-rising-house-prices-in-vancouver-ending-until-in-migration-stops-likely-not-until-2050-when-the-world-population-is-forecasted-to-be-peaking/#comment-16521

    Blagojevich was just sentenced to 14 years in jail.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/12/07/blagojevich-rod-sentencing-hearing.html

    And yet here, Campbell was nominated for the “Order of BC” medal.

  9. I think what is happening here is the transformation of Vancouver proper into a renters’ city (i.e. most people rent and the very wealthy own).

    People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs and most of the people living in the city will be either renting or owning modest condos.

    • actually whats happening is the transformation of a Vancouver proper into a crappy place to earn a living and an even crappier place to live in your crappy rented crappy place crap crap crap.

      did i mention its crap? maybe this has something to do with it:

    • “People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs”: the region’s lack of preparedness for such a scenario, in terms of its transportation infrastructure, cannot be overstated. As far as I can tell, this is a major reason for the overpricing in Vancouver itself. A change in regional policy, such as the opening of the ALR south of the city and the construction of decent transportation routes, could change the balance of prices between Vancouver and other LM areas. “Running out of land” is not immutable geography, but policy.
      “The very wealthy own”: this reflects belief that those who already “own” are wealthy. We’ll see.
      Is Vancouver proper not already a renters’ city, in comparison with e.g. other Canadian cities? How much further do we expect this trend to go?What cities will it then look like, in socio-economic terms? In whose interest would it be for Vancouver to look like those cities? Oh, I forgot: “there’s really not much you can do.”

    • Royce McCutcheon

      “People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs and most of the people living in the city will be either renting or owning modest condos.”

      Or these people will leave.

      Coming out of this summer, I’ve never heard so many people talking about how much further their dollars would go anywhere else in Canada or the US. Honestly: how ya gonna keep them down on the farm after they’ve seen Paree (or even Seattle)?

  10. Totally off topic, but todays Province’s horiscope says it is a good time for aquarius’s to make real estate deals. Hahahahaha I didnt know they could pay off the psychics.

  11. is it time to discuss plans for turning the Island into another tw? incidentally, i once asked about where all the wildlife had gone. they said that it had all been eaten. true.

  12. Certainly many people will leave, but others, who don’t mind renting, will arrive.

    I’ll wager a large amount that the population of Greater Vancouver will be higher in 30 years than it is now.

  13. At the density of the NYC, the entire world’s population could fit into the state of Texas.

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