“Housing is becoming a toxic financial asset that threatens the entire region.
Before we get into it, let’s look at what a toxic asset is. In the U.S., sub-prime mortgages were a toxic asset because they were converted into financial instruments (derivatives) that had no real value, but were continuously traded for ever-increasing prices until, eventually, the banks that were promoting them couldn’t back them any more. We’re all familiar with the results – massive writedowns and a whopping recession that’s still playing out.
Vancouver is undergoing something similar… because it’s allowing housing to be bid ever higher and far beyond its intrinsic value. As a result of this massive monetization of housing, the entire city’s social and economic scene is under intense pressure and is threatened with collapse.”
…
“The houses had become just another abstract financial instrument.”
…
“Well, eventually, it has to stop. When houses are continually traded for ever higher prices, the entire balance of population and housing becomes extremely distorted. Eventually it reaches such a distortion that it breaks.
Throughout history, we have seen that asset inflation can’t go on forever. Either a giant crash comes eventually, or – if there’s some sense around – authorities step in to slowly deflate the bubble to prevent catastrophe.”
- excerpts from Tony Wanless’ commentary [BC Business, 2 Dec 2011] on Sandy Garossino’s 28 Dec 2011 blog post.
Most Recent Comments:
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- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (41)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
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- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
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- 07 Greater Fool
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Latest Anecdotes:
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”

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“or – if there’s some sense around – authorities step in to slowly deflate the bubble to prevent catastrophe.”
That’s what I don’t want, 30 years of gradual price/value normalization. Those of us without RE would not own in our lifetimes, or we will move, or we will own a million dollar crackhouse. I say pop that bubble then deal with the recession. I look with envy on the US RE market right now, because a good salary will get you something beautiful. Pop the damn thing.
I agree 100%. Regulatory interference has what got us here. Let’s not tinker with this any more, it will only make it worse.
This is a federal government issue involving CMHC, BoC, and Immigration. Write your MP, write Jim Flaherty, write Mark Carney. City of Vancouver politicos or even BC gov can do very little about this.
Don’t worry. It’s impossible to “slowly deflate the bubble”. It will either crash or continue to go up for a long time.
BSuite: “..a good salary will get you something beautiful.”
—
And it should. Much better for the community. Reward hard work with a decent home. “Beautiful”, even better.
Exactly VREAA, that really is the way it should be.
The whole social order in metro van is seriously mixed up. Hard work, a good job, and a good salary is nothing compared to dumb-ass luck flipping residential real estate. Makes me sick.
When this pops it is not going to be pretty because there are a bunch of very smug, entitled people running around thinking that they were so clever leveraging 20:1 buying and selling houses and living off HELOCs. When that gets taken away and they have to live on their service industry jobs paying off an underwater mortgage there is going to be a whole bunch of misery. Add in reduced gov services and rising taxes and people will be fleeing, not snapping up what used to be “beautiful” homes.
It will take a long time to reset the social order here and to reestablish a more merit based community. There is a whole generation that has grown up and lived here who has never experienced anything other than this twisted, artificial, bubblicious flake of a community.
Yes, reset is necessary but don’t expect a pancea 2 weeks later.
NOW IS NO TIME FOR MERIT
BRING IN MORE COMMUNIST PARTY APPARATCHIKS AND THEIR GRANDPARENTS
@keeperofthederp: That should be on a T-shirt, ALL CAPS included.
When that gets taken away and they have to live on their service industry jobs paying off an underwater mortgage there is going to be a whole bunch of misery.
In the US, they went through a few years of trying to convince the hoi-polloi that walkaway/”strategic default” was morally wrong. But there, you DID have the option of grinding it out for the remainder of your 15 or 30 year term, if you had a fixed rate and could make the payments.
Here, you’ll KNOW that, come renewal time in 5 years or less, nobody will finance you if you’re underwater, and there will be a power of sale. Who’s going to keep paying knowing that?
BSuite: “Pop the damn thing.”
—
We can have it pop quick (by letting it play out ‘naturally’, or by tightening lending), or we can attempt to prop it up through policies aimed at slowing its deflation, via various band-aids. It’s already being propped up by easy lending and CMHC policy.
Either way, people will be hurt, there is no way of avoiding that.
It seems that one reason that many public figures avoid talking about the RE market is that almost any outcome involves a good deal of people suffering hardship.
This is ‘baked into the bubble’, there is no way of avoiding it. One is not a pessimist to point it out.
If you are someone advocating an attempt to land it slowly, who would you suggest the buyers should be these coming years?
the idiot pollyannas will always call you a debbie downer
it may have peaked already. not unreasonable to think -20% off in 2012, followed by similar in 2013. pov -> not owning for a while is a small price to pay compared to getting totally wiped out and having to restart. also, if you follow the us data, there is no hurry to catch a falling knife. prices are not going to bounce hard.
Last time prices crashed in Vancouver they rebounded hard. The big question is how many knife catchers there will be the second time round.
We’d expect there to be a bounce at 2009 lows.
That’s why technical analysis has some validity… a subset of prospective buyers will step in saying “this is where it bounced last time”. Thus there will be a bit of ‘support’ at those levels.
When that support fails (on ‘second test’), look out below.
the top only comes into perspective afterwards. the 2008 was not so much a crash as just buyers going on strike for a while during the ww liquidation binge. more like a big hiccup on the way up. this time around, all the main drivers are topping out. i think the most significant ones for vanRE are the apparent topping of the household credit chart – which may indicate saturation limit, and the action in the asian ppty markets.
Slowly deflating a bubble. OK then. Good luck trying to convince the rest of the province and country why they should bail out Vancouver’s speculative malfeasance.
But, if you think about it, jesse, this is what even those commentators with apparently sincere intentions are calling for… trying to engineer a soft-landing. As you point out, they’d have to use somebody else’s funds to do that.
BSuite is correct: let it pop.
maybe gregor can pull a hank paulson and hold the country hostage?
(or is that what the CMHC is for?)
At the federal level I have doubts any monies will be made available to bail out Vancouver specifically; quite the opposite: to ensure a so-called mean reversion Vancouver must crash harder than other regions.
The provincial government may step in but again we’re dealing with scarce resources. The rest of the province, for any of those who bother to look, isn’t doing so hot. Any prospective measures to prop up prices will come at the expense of other regions, so look for “solutions” that don’t involve direct expenditures or government revenue impairment.
Here are a few ideas at the provincial and muni level, and none are new. Remember revenues are sacred so incentives — whether effective or not — need to be found that can be kept “off the operating books”:
1) Allow homeowners to use the lowest of the past two years’ assessments for calculating property tax
2) Pushing through often-unpopular zoning changes to ensure adequate construction permit cash flows
3) Mortgage and construction loan guarantees
If property prices start showing prolonged weakness, the very things blamed for high prices will be the things begged for by those who have the most to lose.
In the meantime, Australia, the other nut real estate market, is showing some cracks… One in four has trouble paying off the mortgage!
Watch this video from BBC: Mortgage Misery in Australia
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16062699
And in China, prices are starting to crash as well, at least for the ghost cities…
“Timber! Home prices are crashing in China’s ‘ghost city’”
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/12/07/timber-home-prices-are-crashing-in-chinas-ghost-city/
Whoever is bullish on China should really look at these pictures
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-ghost-cities-2011-5
How can that be sustainable?
funny, i just witnessed a massive private dinner sponsored by Chinese RE developers for an International underwriting firm.
believe me, there was no bear whining to be heard, just clink clink clink, ha ha ha
Vancouverites should know all about private underwriters. Ask for all the money upfront is my free advice, and don’t think you’ll get favourable terms either: a fancy dinner just gets you in the door.
1 percent… 1 percent… 1 percent…
Psst… a BakerStreetIrregular masquerading as the event AV/Media dude was covering that one for Nem…
http://tinyurl.com/8x5ldan
PS – the ‘obligatory decadent banquet scene’ is a stock HollyWood narrative convention normatively employed to ‘set up’ an antagonist for the inevitable ‘reversal ‘o fortune’ (i.e. – to heighten/contrast an antagonist’s impending decline vis a vis their prior stature/spoils… as well as to differentiate them, in moral terms, from ‘worthy protagonists’) – in that regard/this instance, will life imitate art?
@nem
lol
Nem, it took me some time, but I’m starting to really enjoy your posts
A bit off-topic, but somewhat relevant to corruption going unprosecuted in Canada. A couple of months ago I wrote:
“One thing I prefer about the US over Canada is that the FBI and the district attorneys have the balls to go after corrupt figures. Yes, Blagojevich was corrupt, but the FBI nailed him. Compare this to the BC Rail fiasco, where pretty much everyone got away scot-free.”
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2011/09/24/i-do-not-see-this-trend-of-rising-house-prices-in-vancouver-ending-until-in-migration-stops-likely-not-until-2050-when-the-world-population-is-forecasted-to-be-peaking/#comment-16521
Blagojevich was just sentenced to 14 years in jail.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/12/07/blagojevich-rod-sentencing-hearing.html
And yet here, Campbell was nominated for the “Order of BC” medal.
the turds always rise to the top
How many Wall Street bankers have gone to jail so far?
That is a good point. I guess the Wall-Street bankers are smarter than Blagojevich because they lobbied to have the law changed before actually breaking it.
Great video. For some reason I have become accustomed to corporate corruption. At least it’s primarily the shareholders that take the hit (unless it brings down the whole economy, as in the case of Countrywide). Political corruption on the other hand makes my blood boil.
I suppose one could also point out GW Bush’s specious reasoning for invading Iraq, so maybe I should just quit while I’m ahead.
I think what is happening here is the transformation of Vancouver proper into a renters’ city (i.e. most people rent and the very wealthy own).
People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs and most of the people living in the city will be either renting or owning modest condos.
actually whats happening is the transformation of a Vancouver proper into a crappy place to earn a living and an even crappier place to live in your crappy rented crappy place crap crap crap.
did i mention its crap? maybe this has something to do with it:
No one forces people to live there, and yet somehow people do.
its like this
The video about the ants going on in circle is a great metaphor to how the financial markets behaves…
@keeperofthederp, An old Mike Meyers interlude. I hope MayorGregor is paying attention.
Next he’ll be making jokes about Elizabeth Ball’s “geeant fooking heed”, and Reimer can whisk over and shut his mouth with some clear tape (of a certain approved brand name).
Nice death spiral. (Those are likely Australian army ants, BTW, given the direction of motion.)
hahaha re Australia.
And stunning video; great metaphor.
“People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs”: the region’s lack of preparedness for such a scenario, in terms of its transportation infrastructure, cannot be overstated. As far as I can tell, this is a major reason for the overpricing in Vancouver itself. A change in regional policy, such as the opening of the ALR south of the city and the construction of decent transportation routes, could change the balance of prices between Vancouver and other LM areas. “Running out of land” is not immutable geography, but policy.
“The very wealthy own”: this reflects belief that those who already “own” are wealthy. We’ll see.
Is Vancouver proper not already a renters’ city, in comparison with e.g. other Canadian cities? How much further do we expect this trend to go?What cities will it then look like, in socio-economic terms? In whose interest would it be for Vancouver to look like those cities? Oh, I forgot: “there’s really not much you can do.”
“People who insist on a SFH will choose the burbs and most of the people living in the city will be either renting or owning modest condos.”
Or these people will leave.
Coming out of this summer, I’ve never heard so many people talking about how much further their dollars would go anywhere else in Canada or the US. Honestly: how ya gonna keep them down on the farm after they’ve seen Paree (or even Seattle)?
Totally off topic, but todays Province’s horiscope says it is a good time for aquarius’s to make real estate deals. Hahahahaha I didnt know they could pay off the psychics.
is it time to discuss plans for turning the Island into another tw? incidentally, i once asked about where all the wildlife had gone. they said that it had all been eaten. true.
Certainly many people will leave, but others, who don’t mind renting, will arrive.
I’ll wager a large amount that the population of Greater Vancouver will be higher in 30 years than it is now.
At the density of the NYC, the entire world’s population could fit into the state of Texas.