“I stopped by my old job to visit. Boss mentions Vancouver RE. Says that he doesn’t think it’s going to go down because it’s been recession-proof. Doesn’t think it’s going to go any higher mind you, thinks it should stay the same for awhile. Also buys into investor-immigrant theory.
He agrees it’s a bubble (but I’m not quite sure he understands the full implications). It might be that by bubble he means it’s just unreasonably high. He’s an intelligent person, but he bought in 2009 so he’s highly leveraged, financially and opinion-wise. Changing his POV might be admitting to a gargantuan mistake.
Kind of upsetting since he’s a relatively new/young researcher, and the size of the mortgage will probably detrimentally impact his family’s life.
Sometimes I think along the same lines, but I can’t bring myself to seriously believe it. There’s just no way he can be right. This has to end sometime and it won’t end in a flat-line. It’s not that I want to say “I told you so” to him, I just wish others didn’t fall into the same trap. The longer this goes on, the more people become absorbed, and the harder the eventual fall.”
- Moe at VREAA 31 Oct 2011 12:20pm
There is a subgroup of owners who see that the market is frothy, but woefully underestimate the kind of collapse that happens when a speculative mania ends. These are the folks anticipating a 10%-15% pullback, ‘tops’. – vreaa
Could be 20%, but that’s it.
I suppose to could briefly go 25%, but not for very long.
OK OK by very long it could be a few years, but things will come back eventually.
But I admit there’s a teeny tiny tiny chance prices could go down 30%, but that would be an act of God or something. And then we’re all in the same boat so it’s all good.
And yes 40% off is theoretically possible but it isn’t practical, and I know there are places in the world that have fallen this amount but Vancouver is different.
hahaha
yup.
I don’t know where else to post this so I’m going to put it in this thread.
Here’s a little something to point out the next time someone tries to justify Vancouver prices by using New York as a comparison (as if there is any):
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-citys-housing-markets-are-on-the-verge-of-plunging-2011-11
It’s obvious, Vancouver is starting to overtake New York, taking its place justifiably atop the new centre of the universe. Why even Credit Suisse is building a new office tower in anticipation of the eventual migration of New York’s financial district to Vancouver’s downtown peninsula.
See? Toldya!
“He’s an intelligent person, but he bought in 2009 so he’s highly leveraged, financially and opinion-wise”
Moe – it sounds like you don’t own (not that there’s anything wrong with that), are you not also “highly leveraged opinion-wise”? You may be right about a bubble and impending doom right around the corner, you may be wrong, but the truth is you don’t know for sure if/when anything will happen. Just like you don’t know what your old boss’s motivation for buying is, whether or not he is overextended in any way, and whether or not he cares what the short term movements of his RE happen to be.
Another sad example of an otherwise reasonable person believing its normal to pay over a million dollars for a sad-sack house and carry a mortgage ten times your income. From where I am it is beyond reason. It’s astonishing. How can there even be a debate about whether these prices are sustainable? People, you need to get out more and see how others live. Could the famous insularity of Vancouverites be affectig their senses? How else to explain?
“How can there even be a debate about whether these prices are sustainable?”
—
Sometimes we ask ourselves the same question… at other times, when completely surrounded by chanting believers, we feel brief pangs to join the cult.
But, reason prevails.