In July 2006, in response to a US ‘Housing Bubble Blog’ post ‘Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices? 5%? 10%? 20%? 50%?‘ [housingpanic 21 July 2006], Greg Swann, a Realtor from Phoenix, wrote ‘21 reasons to bank on the Phoenix real estate market…‘ [bloodhoundrealty.com 21 Jul 2006].
Excerpts from Swann’s post:
“Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings. Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.”
—
“Will prices drop by the huge amounts HousingPanic and his flying monkeys seem to yearn for? This seems very unlikely.
What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year’s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year. The reason this should happen is very simple: Population growth.
Metropolitan Phoenix is a unique real estate market. While other cities experience static — or even negative — population change, The Valley of the Sun routinely adds 100,000 new residents every year. There is no reason to think this will stop — not now and not soon. The carrying capacity of Greater Phoenix is eight million souls, about 266% our present population. We will hit that number — but not until 2040 or after.”
Forgive us if we had to pinch ourselves reading this. Does this argument remind one of anything we’ve heard here recently?: “Unique” (yawn); “5% p.a. price increases”; “40,000 new residents per year”; “steady immigration growth until 2050″. Why, it’s the “ Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength” that we hear proposed repeatedly by Vancouver RE bulls.
Anyway, that was then, and this is now: see the ‘Bull Hubris‘ sidebar for an ongoing collection of made-in-Vancouver puffery.
- vreaa
[with hat-tip to Gord]
I think Phoenix and vancouver cant really be compared. Phoenix is just another american dung beetle
Homeslice -> Thanks for the comment.
You’re right, but not in the way we suspect you think.
We’ve headlined our response to your comment:
‘Vancouver and Phoenix Compared – Our Speculative Mania Is Twice The Size’
Vancouver is just another dun beetle of the world.
Have you seen Vancouvers film festival and fashion week? Hardly world class and those are the most superficial events. You know, the stuff people care about.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Phoenix, AZ Historical Data:
July 31, 2003 121.29
July 31, 2004 135.81
July 31, 2005 196.19
July 31, 2006 226.18
July 31, 2007 209.55
July 31, 2008 148.16
July 31, 2009 105.92
July 31, 2010 109.51
July 31, 2011 99.80
The timing of Greg Swann’s post (July 2006) was not far from the absolute peak (May 31, 2006 = 228.17).
Yeah but his mistake was that he was in Phoenix. Vancouver is different by definition.
In 2011, Gregg Swann is still posting over at the Bloodhound Realty site. What’s he saying now?:
When the facts change, he changes his mind! What will do you do, sir?
When Greg Swann is at his maximum point of bearish certainty, Phoenix will be at its very bottom.
Note that he is nothing more than a momentum investor, incapable of imagining anything other than a continuation of the recent past.
PS, Greg Swann’s e-mail is linked to on every post he makes there. And he sure likes to write, surely he’d love the opportunity to pitch beautiful, affordable Phoenix to winter-weary and rain-weary Canadians.
Could he be induced to make a guest post here? VREAA, make it so!
“The carrying capacity of Greater Phoenix is eight million souls, about 266% our present population”
this bull provided the reason for the collapse, near limitless ability to expand. Vancouver does not have this capacity. We gain condos each year while losing single family homes – pretty easy to see what the direction of each will be
thanks for coming out, eyesthebye
please let us know of a single source for the proposition that the reason for the collapse of phoenix’s real estate market is “near limitless ability to expand” as opposed to “contraction of credit” or “end of irrational exuberance”
thanks
Their present is our future?
http://wearethe99percent.tumblr.com/
Leaving aside the paragraph about why Phoenix will stay inflated, the comment about the depravity of the bubble blogs could be talking about this very bubble blog. There are a lot of people that are absolutely frothing at the mouth to see an RE crash so they can scoop up properties, people talking about setting out lawn chairs and watching the fun. Really? It’s a subculture of masochism, or is it sadism? I can’t remember which is which. I imagine in the end it will turn out to be a little bit of both since a crash would affect us all, although admittedly some harder than others.
Idiotic economic analysis – check
cult-like fever to inflict suffering – check
bubble blogger koolaid – check
ACP -> Umm, that is the point.
agree ACP,
I’m sitting on the side watching the fun too; the fun that comes with reading these blogs.
Here’s one of my favs:
real estate bear that claims there is no demand for Vancouver real estate while discussing it with dozens of others who would love to get their hands on a single detached home. Isn’t that kinda like speaking out of both sides of your mouth? Hilarious!
Rollie -> Show us where anybody here has ever suggested that there is “no demand for Vancouver real estate”.
Straw man. Troll. Multiple handles.
(yawn)