“I sold in Van West about 6 months ago, I’ll buy back in if prices go down about 30-35%, that’s the percentage that would make sense to maybe jump back in, and only if the rates are still relatively low. If it doesn’t go down that much then I’ll just keep renting…kind of enjoying renting actually”
- vangrl at vancouvercondo.info 20 Sep 2011 4:03pm
“My wife wants to buy NOW! because she thinks we are throwing away money renting. Its a battle! She also hates moving as do I. The problem is there is a lot of people who have sold, and are sitting on a lot of money. We all sold at different times.”
- mattymatt123 vancouvercondo.info 20 Sep 2011 12:57pm
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How many Vancouverites have sold their primary residences and are now renting; waiting on the sidelines, hoping to buy at lower prices?
Will that ‘pent up demand’ ensure that any price pullbacks are shallow, as many are predicting?
How will these prospective buyers respond when prices do indeed start dropping?
(Our opinion is that this is a relatively small pool of buyers, and that, even if they do step in and buy, the effect will not be enough to overcome the massive downward momentum in prices that will occur when our very broad-based speculative bubble implodes).
- vreaa
I agree with you VREAA. I have heard of a few people who have sold and waiting (ourselves included). Interestingly, ALL of the other people I know in real life who have sold and rented are REALTORS. I don’t think the numbers on the sidelines are large enough to save the market and as prices decrease the temptation to buy back in will decrease.
I’ve bored everyone with my story several times already. The quick synopsis: We sold our house in late 2010 and are now renting. The orignal plan was to buy back in after a “meaningful” pullback. Perhaps 20% or so. Now, after seeing just how much money we’re saving and how much less time we dedicate to upkeep and how much more time we have for living and enjoying life, we won’t buy back in unless the decline is gargantuan – 50% or beyond. And even then we may not. Owning a residence is simply no longer a goal for us. In our own personal situation, at our respective ages, and with our own level of investments, renting just makes too much sense.
My situation is similar to Gord’s. I sold my SFH earlier this year (outside BC). Now renting an SFH in Vancouver. I’m happier renting because (1) the amount of time and money I spend on maintenance is close to zero, and (2) I might be interested in climbing up the career ladder by changing companies in the future, and renting makes these moves much easier.
I would only buy if I saw the possibility of growing my salary in Vancouver and a 50% drop in prices.
An interesting example of what may happen after a crash lies in the San Francisco Bay Area, where prices on houses dropped by 35% and have remained there. No one is buying: a result not only due to the difficulty of securing mortgages, but also because people have found that renting provides more security in an insecure world. As a result, rentals in San Francisco and the nice places of the Bay Area (eg: Berkeley, Piedmont, Claremont District in Oakland) are commanding very good prices and are increasingly hard to come by.
you haven’t learned from recent history, have you VREAA? Buyers sat on their hands for five months not 3 years ago and the backlog created a 30 month boom. There are literally thousands in Vancouver waiting for a chance at a detached Vancouver home…probably 10x the highest possible inventory.
I’m hoping for a sag in sales so the ensuing boom will boost my home another 40%
Chaz -> The “backlog” didn’t create the last 30 months of the “boom”, emergency low interest rates and very loose lending did. Next time we see a “sag in sales” there will be no such rescue.
no fella, you’re wrong. If you were correct then emergency rates would have saved the US housing market, or many other parts of Canada. This is demand, get used to it.
Chaz -> Your conclusion does not logically follow.
Nowhere is there a rule saying that ‘all bubbles will fail despite free money’.
‘Bubble A’ got a bounce out of free money whereas ‘Bubble B’ did not.
It is plain wrong to use that as proof that ‘Bubble A’ is not a bubble.
“Chaz -> Your conclusion does not logically follow.”
Chaz sounds an awful lot like eyesthebye from RET, so you should lower your expectations of logic…
Please explain: if there was a backlog of demand, would there also be a backlog of supply? Have we emptied the backlog(s) now, and will prices fall as a result?
If you believe trolls, those bearish on housing will never buy because they enjoy self-pity. So yeah, there really will be nobody left to buy.
The wagon navigating the path to salvation only has so many seats, friends. Are you a bear, or a BEAR?
“The wagon navigating the path to salvation only has so many seats, friends. Are you a bear, or a BEAR?”
As a result of the Eurozone mess, today I would say I’m not just a Bear, but a BEAR.
BEAR! ThreatDown!!!
sorry just had to channel Colbert.
btw – the reason “emergency rates” didn’t save the US market is because we’re at the zero lower down. Meanwhile Vancouver is ripe for a fall according to the fundamentals.
vreaa, you say there is a bubble, I say there is not. We have ebbs and flows in the market and right now we are ebbing ever so slightly.
Here’s a bit of clarity for you; just because you personally cannot afford to buy does not conclude that others cannot, or that property prices are in a bubble.
The stuff out of your mouth borders on nonsense at times.
Again, your logic and your conclusions are wanting.
You seem to find it impossible to imagine that anybody who can afford to buy in Vancouver wouldn’t do so.
Can’t afford t buy and choose not to buy are two very different things. I made 500K when I sold in 1997 and was patting myself on the back during the 2008 drop. I still feel I made the correct decision despite the 3year dead cat bounce following 2008 and would not consider buying in Vancouver without a minimum 50% pullback from today’s prices.
So what do you call a chart like Vancouver West SFH prices? Anything that’s quadrupled in price in 10 years with no supporting fundamentals is a bubble or a fraud.
I’m pretty sure VREAA could “afford” to buy if he was financially imprudent. Look at this fine example of No Canadian Subprime Mortgages http://www.canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php?t=8838
Just because you can afford to do something doesn’t mean you will if you judge that you will surely lose money. My parents for example happen to be millionaires a couple times over. They currently own all their real estate outright. Their current house was purchased from the town for $35,000 with cash. Yet if they lived in Vancouver, there’s no way they’d buy. You have to be stupid to buy real estate in Vancouver today, when you can get an even stupider specuvestor (Love That Word) to rent you a property for less than it costs to carry.
I’ll bet right now there are properties on MLS that are for both rent and sale, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what’s better for your pocketbook.