“Vancouver’s home prices have climbed by more than 25 % over the last two years, and are now, it seems, second only to New York City’s. I often receive emails asking about the situation. The TD Bank has forecast that Vancouver’s house prices will decline by 25 % over the next two years. Here’s my best guess:
In the long run, Vancouver’s real estate will trend upward. The city’s realty sign is ruled by the Moon, which stood in benevolent Taurus, and in the city’s money house, on April 6, 1886 when it was incorporated. (Always remember my forecast for 2023, though.)
In the medium range – to 2016 – foreign countries will continue to feed this city’s real estate – waves of Chinese have been buying here since the 1980’s, and the most recent wave should last to 2016.
However, even though this wave will defy the TD forecast, it will not have a smooth road upward. At present, a complicated change is occurring: while the true value of Vancouver’s homes will probably rise over the next 18 months, the actual sales prices enter a much less reliable outlook over this same short period.
One of two scenarios should play out: One, there might be a “nova effect” – a bubble in prices now into early 2013, but somewhere along the way the bubble will burst. I’d expect a peak to be reached around July 2012, then it stalls, and the decline begins. Around August/September 2012 foreign purchases of Vancouver’s real estate will dry up, perhaps due to bad luck in their home countries. About January 2013, the local government will take an action that hurts either the B.C. economy, or real estate directly. Two, all of the above events will occur except for the nova, or bubble. In this scenario, the decline has already begun, quietly and slowly, very recently, and will continue quietly and slowly through late 2016. In any case, I would wait until at least 2013 to buy Vancouver. I could be wrong.”
- Tim Stephens, Astrologer, ‘Astral Reflections’, late September 2011 (for week of Oct 2-8, 2011)
[hat-tip terminalcitygirl at VREAA]
As good a prediction as any.
The perfusion of RE into every realm of pop culture.