“I do not see this trend of rising house prices in Vancouver to end until this in-migration stops .. likely not until 2050 when the world population is forecasted to be peaking and Canada has perhaps 50,000,000+ people !
People come here because the scenery is spectacular, air is clean, flights are plentiful, low corruption, law & order, great education K-12-Uni .. and because house prices are still reasonable compared to other world class cities like Singapore, London, New York, Munich, Paris, Moscow, HongKong.
Yours Sincerely,
Thomas Beyer, President
Prestigious Properties Group”
- RE Talks, 21 Sep 2011 3:22pm
Another post for our collection of ‘Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength’ personal opinions. – vreaa
Wow! The dude can project investment/demographic trends for the next 40 years… Amazing how people like this always think the future is a linear extrapolation of the past.
smartest post I’ve seen on this site.
Anyone who blames something other than immigration for rising home prices is naive.
You troll, you…!
RE prices across Canada have gone up in unison because of perversely low borrowing rates, outstripping incomes and GDP by a wide margin since 2003.
what is the difference between this guy’s prediction and the blogger’s? If you take both seriously, I have a farm to sell you for a penny.
Regarding: “What is the difference between this guy’s prediction and the blogger’s?”
Tempted to answer “well, he’s wrong and I’m right”, but, that aside, you make a fair point.
The reader has to do their own analysis, don’t they?
He makes his prediction and I make mine.
That’s the internet, isn’t it?
Regarding: “If you take both seriously, I have a farm to sell you for a penny”.
Really makes no sense. Downside: 1 penny.
In-migration to Vancouver has been happening since 1886. in that time, prices have gone up, prices have gone down.
Vancouver growth; 1980s +400k, 1990s +400k, 2000s +200k. There’s actually been less growth during this period of spectacularly rising prices.
And who will buy these infinitely more expensive homes when most households can only barely afford the mortgage payments on a starter condo? (This is of course, assuming that interest rates never go up for the rest of our lives.)
I’m in Victoria, where the median household income of $77k is not high enough to buy anything more than a condo or crappy townhome. Too bad for the 50% who make less. Guess they’re priced out forever, and it’s really too bad for the poor suckers in Vancouver who are only making $67k. Only a tiny fraction of all future residents will ever be able to own a house in these cities unless prices come down.
Oh, and after you pay the better part of half a million dollars for your starter condo, you’ll need to come up with another quarter million dollars (at least) to get an actual house. So I guess we all need to get second, third or fourth jobs to enjoy our fabulous BEST PLACE ON EARTH lifestyle.
Never mind the fact that of course there aren’t enough jobs out there for every household to earn the six-figure income necessary to borrow the money to pay the new bubble prices. Inconvenient facts such as these are wished away by industry hacks who make absurd comparisons to “other world class cities like Singapore, London, New York, Munich, Paris, Moscow, Hong Kong.”
Ha ha ha ha ha! Has this guy ever been to New York?
Thanks for this morning’s humour, VREAA!
Some parts I enjoyed:
– “not until 2050″: how many times have you seen a 40-year prediction be worth anything?
– “low corruption”: Either he’s not from BC or he thinks we’ve already forgotten Gordon Campbell
– “other world class cities”: I think this topic has been beat to death already
– “law & order”: we’ve already seen crime stats showing many large US cities to be noticeably better in many categories, e.g., violent crime.
– “great education K-12-Uni”: I personally don’t agree with this. We’ve seen Fraser Institute stats about Seattle public schools vs Vancouver public schools (basically, houses that are 3~5 times cheaper will put you in an equally good school district).
Thomas Beyer, proud REIN member, afaik makes his money joint venturing, and syndicating buildings.
“– “low corruption”: Either he’s not from BC or he thinks we’ve already forgotten Gordon Campbell”
Compared to most parts of the world, all of Canada is low corruption.
You are right that many places are more corrupt than Canada.
One thing I prefer about the US over Canada is that the FBI and the district attorneys have the balls to go after corrupt figures.
Yes, Blagojevich was corrupt, but the FBI nailed him. Compare this to the BC Rail fiasco, where pretty much everyone got away scot-free.
Eliot Spitzer was actually a great attorney general. He basically took down the Gambino crime family. Imagine if there were someone like Spitzer in Montreal?
A forty year forecast for continuted rising prices in Vancouver! Wait a minute, I’m sure I hear a hissing sound.
Extrapolating current trends (19.6% YOY price increases according to REBGV), in 2050, the benchmark price for a single family home on Vancouver’s West Side will be $1,735,185,988.
I think the point is that RE is a free call. Can’t lose bet, but I guess you never know… If this guy is posting on RET something is fishy in the province of BC…
Populations of caribou, wildebeasts, and greater fools all end up cashing the old Malthusian check. Every time.