
“If anyone is telling you that downtown Vancouver is hot as far as real estate is concerned, they’re blowing smoke.” – ‘Is the Vancouver Condo Market Starting to Soften?’, local realtor Ian Watts, youtube.com, 21 July 2011.
—
“My brother, who bought on the west side in 1987 for just under $500K, sold in April for over $3.5 million. After seeing that sale, my sister and her husband listed their very similar – but actually newer and bigger- house located just a few blocks away. Their house has been on the market since early June. The listing price is now $3 million and they have not had a single offer.” – ‘don’t wait’ at VREAA 1 Aug 2011 7:21am
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“In the building where my wife and I are renting (Lower Lonsdale – North Van) a 2 bed condo was for sale for few months for a whopping $629,000. Crazy price compared to GTA where we moved from. Today, they had open house and a new price of $609,000. A $20,000 price drop. Another $300,000 or so and it will be worth it. It’s slowly starting to happen.” – Dclipse at greaterfool.ca 31 July 2011 10:45pm
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National RE commentator Garth Turner calls Vancouver market top: “Well, in case you missed the news, Vancouver real estate’s officially topped, and has begun the greasy slide back to that dark, sad place we call ‘the mean.’ Post-riot Chinese money is ebbing, locals are emasculated by debt, the BC economy’s stalled and there simply are not enough idiots left to put down two million for a stucco-over-wood eyesore on a ‘premium flat’ lot the rest of the country would find suitable for an unscheduled whiz” [hahaha; genuinely very funny. -ed.], greaterfool.ca, 31 July 2011
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Realtor Larry Yatkowsky stops posting sales numbers, citing as a reason that ‘return on investment’ for that activity is too low for him. [21 July 2011] [This is not an act of ebullience. Has the market already turned? -ed.]
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Realtor Will Wertheim (‘Agent Will’), source of weekly stats and bullish Vancouver RE opinions, declares he is leaving town, reasons unstated. [Not necessarily a 'top-o-the-market' event. Perhaps Will is leaving for reasons completely unrelated to the RE market. We've appreciated his stats posts, and we wish him well. Most realtors will be folding their tents well into the plunge; the last who is destined to leave will do so near the bottom. -ed.]
—
“Listings at UBC reached 200 !!!
In 2008-2009, I never saw them above 140.” [More building since then but, still, 200 seems a lot. -ed.]
- painted turtle at vancouvercondo.info 1 Aug 2011 5:20pm
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“This morning I woke up before my alarm in a bit of a panic attack. After having my house on the market for about a week and a half, and lots of interest over the and even an offer of $70k below asking (which we politely refused), and yesterday with complete silence, I’m wondering if the interest was just curiosity about a new property on the market, and that’s it, I’m too late. Like the guy on the ship who’s just figured out it’s sinking, and the seaman says, “oh sorry, the last lifeboat just left”. – Jim, as relayed by Garth, at greaterfool.ca 1 Aug 2011. Jim is selling in a suburb of Vancouver, has listed at $700K but laughs (anxiously, we presume) when asked if he would pay that for his own house.
—

“The horror… the horror…”
—
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- 05. Where do Buyers get the money? (958)
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- 16. Missed The Boat? (236)
- 17. The Froogle Scott Chronicles (27)
- 18. Spot The Speculator (171)
- 19. BlastRadiusPostCards (17)
- 20. The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength (70)
- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (41)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
- 24. Policies On Housing (10)
- 25. Epigrams For The Bubble (1)
- 26. Premature Calls Of "Bottom" (3)
- 27. Seller Panic (3)
- 28. Erroneous Causation Theories For Falling Prices (7)
- 29. Bubblespeak (1)
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Blogroll
- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
- 08 Canada Bubble
- 09 Rob Chipman's blog
- 10 YatterMatters
- 11 condohype [retired; archives available]
- 12 vancouver (un)real estate
- 13 Agent Will's Stats [retired]
- 14 Landlord Rescue
- 15 The Economic Analyst
- 16 Canadian Housing Price Charts
- 17 Hoodsurf [retired Jun 2011]
- 18 World Housing Bubble
- 19 Vancouver Price Drop
- 20 North American Economics


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Latest Anecdotes:
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”

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Good one. It’s nice to have a laugh before trudging off to work. Watt does look a bit Kurtz-like, doesn’t he? Lacks a bit of Brando’s bulk, but he could still serve as a reasonable fill-in should Vancouver soon enter its own heart of darkness.
X
=
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[We suspect Ian would enjoy this; posted in that spirit. -ed.]
Personally, I think the market has topped. However, as with the US, I expect it to be a long, boring wait until prices actually start dropping by any significant amount. I remember visiting Ben Jones’ housing bubble blog for months while prices had supposedly “stabilized”-no price drops, but lots on the market. I stopped visiting his blog, it was just too boring. Then one day I went back and couldn’t believe how things had changed-all the headlines were about huge price drops, foreclosures etc. I expect a similar pattern here. Patience.
Actually it’s different here.
Mainly: When the US started tanking it was the reason why the rest of the economy followed. In THIS scenario though the tank is already empty and there won’t be a lot of buffer between the stabilization and the start of the slide.
All the other economic indicators are pointing towards red as well, the shipping index took a dive so did demand for petrolium products, the drop in US GDP is also a really really bad sign.
The “budget compromise” in the US they are voting on today will also have a ripple effect as it will essentially end the stimulus in the US and thus erode demand even more.
Also yesterday came the news that American Consumer Spending has been dropping in June and I would bet July as well. Partially probably because of the fear over the debt ceiling, but I also think that to a large part people just aren’t very positive about the outlook. If your economy relies to 75% on consumer spending, that’s bad news.
Agree with pricedout.
RE prices are sticky on the way down.
Sellers staring at other sellers.
May be one or two patches where we get plunges within the overall march down, though:
1. the first drop away from the top zone;
2. the loss of support at 2009 lows.
Otherwise, steady grind; patience, as you say.
I’m in WA DC on a buisness trip & told a friend about the Canadian housing market. He started to laugh when I told him that many people are convinced that Flaherty can keep rates low indefinitely. He didn’t believe me — that people buy at 2.9% interest without a real analysis of what they will do if rates raise to 4 or 5 or 6%. His exact words were, “can’t people figure out how to use one of those mortgage calculators on the computer?”
(It’s a lot more common to lock rates in for a 30 year mortgage in the US. One of the major causes of the housing collapse in the US were teaser rates. Adjustable interest rates went up = housing market in the U.S. went smash.)
There is a mortgage company down the block from my office in Yaletown called The Mortgage Center Mortgage Evolution.
They advertise on their signage First time homebuyers, New Immigrants, Self Employed, Non-verifiable Income.
They just dropped their variable from 2.25 to 2.10 this morning.
Ah, I have seen them and it always struck me as a bad sign the way they were advertising.
Let’s see how long they’ll be around.
So, “Agentwill” on twitter said he’ll be changing careers and heading back to Toronto. I met him once (a friend actually used him to buy his house) and I am thinking he’s seen the writing on the wall and decided to exit before the rush starts.
If so, good for him (and likely fortunate timing).
Wow.
Just back from five days of ‘painstaking’ micro research/’field work’ in the ‘Heart of Darkness’ (with – perhaps – a little time out ‘Flouting the Law & Cheating Death’).
And… Yes. It’s over.
Amazing anecdotals (regrettably, which I cannot share here/now).
Notwithstanding that technical analysis is a VooDooArt that ‘Nemesis’ does not subscribe to… for those of you who do enjoy those pretty graphs – a prediction… YVR RE will waterfall/cascade… and it may well be precipitious.
But what do I know? ‘Nothing’. I’m just a qualitative dude who puts more stock in anecdotals than fourier transforms.
Life usually imitates art..
It will be as precipitous as the fall of Canucks after Game 3…
What are you reading these days Nemesis? the UN papers you linked to were pretty nice. Being in the IT world I am working with many of the largest companies in the USA and Canada. I have have the pleasure of visiting many corporate software development centers every year and the impact of globalization is quite amazing. Analyzed from a technical perspective there is a good case for globalization. Analyzed more from an anecdotal perspective the effects of globalization without the free movement of people across borders are horrific unless you already own a private jet or a big Yacht! I can’t help but think that globalization as practiced today is a giant fallacy of composition.
nem sent me a trio of great books a while back but the best was “death of the liberal class” by chris hedges
i know you didn’t ask me, but “treasure islands – tax havens and the men who stole the world” by nicholas shaxson is a great read – relevant to our interests.
Modelski forgot a ‘layer’ in his famous ‘cake model’, ams – although, to be fair to him, it hadn’t ‘properly’/obviously emerged at the time he formulated his thesis… Transnational Capital (and attendant elites including “technocratic”). It salutes no flag, honours no sovereign is beholden to no polity/people and, in functional terms, is a ‘closed’ epistemic community. I just call ‘it’/'them’, “TheMoney”… and in practical terms, TheMoney makes its own rules [e.g. from TheMoney's amoral/capricious perspective 'we' are all just 'inputs' subject to arbitrage - and that includes nations/hemispheres].
Here are two recommendations for your ‘light’ summer reading list (albeit, the second won’t be published until September), ams… (warning, good scholarship, but SERIOUSLY depressing).
Dark Ages America – Morris Berman
http://tinyurl.com/3s4rwz5
Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics – Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith
http://tinyurl.com/42x8dus
The comment section of Watt’s video is also funny.
One Realtor commented: “U f idiot why spreading – news which will hurt our business.I will complain to Real Estate board ”.
to which another one replied: “Ummm yeah sure get mad at the guy for telling the truth. I guess he should just say that the market has never been better!!! You better buy now or be priced out forever…lol. The most important thing about sales is creditability you you fgah clearly do not have.”
lol… I bet it’ll start to be very fun to watch the crash for all the bears out there very soon…
I sure hope it’s over….
It’s not because I want to buy RE anytime soon … because I actually enjoy the freedom of renting at this point …. and have been able to put away a good deal of money waiting for the tides to turn.
It’s just that …. I am so freaking tired of all these RE pushers around me … sorry, it was a particularly bad day ….. they were everywhere!