chris at greaterfool.ca 11 July 2011 2:25am -
“A Vancouver homeowner I recently met, a nice 48 year old tradesman, said to me that even though his little shack is now worth 1 million or so, it would not be long before it goes to 3 million, or higher, as time goes by.
I looked at him in utter disbelief when he said [that] this is the most beautiful city in the world, where you can ski one moment and boat 30 minutes later in the Pacific Ocean. That is pretty much how everyone thinks here; [they believe] that the whole world wants to move here, and therefore prices are only beginning to rise, and will do so forever.”
Yes, there is such an animal as a ‘speculative holder’. Handed a time-sensitive winning lottery ticket, they decide to wait for two more before cashing them in. – vreaa
“I looked at him in utter disbelief when he said [that] this is the most beautiful city in the world, where you can ski one moment and boat 30 minutes later in the Pacific Ocean. That is pretty much how everyone thinks here; [they believe] that the whole world wants to move here, and therefore prices are only beginning to rise, and will do so forever.””
greedy greedy.
He’d better hope that Roubini is wrong and China is not going to slow in 2013-2014.
Who the hell has time or money to ski or boat when they are feeding a $3000/month mortgage on their townhouse?
he’s right, prices will continue to rise long term – but it’ll be a long time before 1M will gain 300%
but what – only a “short” period of time for a 200% gain? ie. $1M to $3M for the same shack is feasible over the short run but the increase to $4M will take a long time? No wonder your market is such a bubble – can’t do basic math let alone economics.
in Los angeles you can go skiing and boating in the pacific ocean the same day , Bear mountian and the san bernadino mountains as well as boating in santa monica, Malibu and newport beach. I really think Vancoverites need to pull their head from their asses for a change. Here in Florida we can be in aweosme theme parks like disney land universal, sea world, busch gardens and massive water parks, and new attractions coming all the time and then be in the tropical beachs of Miami in a few hours. We can also go to the keys and be in the carribean or the everglades wild life park. Point is Vancouver doesnt have a monopoloy on mountains ocean and acitivies like that, what the locals dont understand is not everyone cares for those kinds of acitivities. I lived in BC for 30 years, I never did either of those in the same day and most definetly not in the sogging horrible rain.I cant stand vancouver that attitude of theirs is one of the biggest reasons why I left
no, no, you don’t understand.
People in Vancouver can’t move to places with sun because when the sun hits their skin they melt, or maybe sparkle like the Twilight vampires.
That’s the real reason people are paying 1 million for crack shacks.
a resident of L.A. is 6x more likely to become a murder victim than in Vancouver. Other crime stats such as rape, assualt, robbery, vehicle theft show similar difference between the two cities.
Besides, US is no longer the land of milk and honey it was last century. The new world is asia – and the gateway to this new world is Vancouver. 100 years ago the new world was America and the gateway New York. You’re so last century my friend.
Rusty is correct about the murder rates: Vancouver is about 6 times higher. But, he is incorrect about violent and property crime rates: Vancouver is 2x higher in violent crimes and 3x higher in property crimes.
In any case, the murder rates don’t worry me. Most of the homicides are gang members. My most likely cause of death is car accident, cancer, or heart disease.
City of Vancouver
Population = 578,000
2010 Homicide = 9 Ratio = .00155%
2010 Violent crimes = 6711 Ratio 1.1%
2010 Property crimes = 34696 Ratio = 6%
City of Los Angeles
Population = 4,003,236
2010 Homicides = 297 Rate = 0.0074%
2010 Violent crimes = 21241 Rate = 0.53%
2010 Property crimes = 88,009 Rate = 2.19%
Sources:
http://vancouver.ca/aboutvan.htm
http://vancouver.ca/police/Planning/StatsDistrict/2010/20092010YTD.pdf
http://www.lapdonline.org/assets/pdf/cityprof.pdf
http://www.lapdonline.org/assets/pdf/2010%20Summary.pdf
[UnagiDon -> Apologies, this post was held up in moderation (due to number of links). Thanks for the data. - ed.]
Comparing LA to Vancouver is just plain stupid, just like comparing NY to Vancouver. And if you’re worried about cancer maybe you should compare the air quality in the two cities …
Of course this is not a proper justification for the bubble.
woah woah woah
we have mountains
Ridiculous. China is not the “new world”, but even if that were true, you’d still be wrong about Vancouver being “the gateway” to it. Don’t let facts get in your way, though.
There are three flights a day from Shanghai to Frankfurt. There are two flights a day from Shanghai to each of Paris, Amsterdam, London, Sydney, Chicago and Dubai. Vancouver and Toronto each have one flight a day, just like Helsinki, Istanbul, Melbourne, Auckland, Zurich and San Francisco (competing gateways, I guess?).
http://www.myvirtualflights.com/port.php?code=PVG&show=connections
There are five flights a day from Beijing to Dubai. There are four flights a day from Beijing to London. There are three flights a day from Beijing to Frankfurt. Vancouver gets two flights a day, just like Amsterdam and San Francisco.
http://www.myvirtualflights.com/port.php?code=PEK&show=connections
Sorry again to burden you with facts. I know your mortgage payments are onerous and I hear that cognitive dissonance is a real drag.
Best place in the world. Free sexual assault in the hallway of the overprice building you’ve purchased in.
http://www.news1130.com/news/local/article/208615–public-warning-after-sexual-assault-in-vancouver
That doesn’t disprove what Im saying and has nothing to dow with that is aid, the USA is the place to be. Any successful canadians usually goes down there to work and make something of themselves. yet what baffles me is how canada is being taken over entirely by foreigners due to no population growth…. canada is a collapsed country with a huge inferiority complex .. canada cant hold their own on the world stage and is basically being recolonized. if it wasn’t for the USA being next door canada would be a frozen piece of shit. The US has an important presence in canada, yet canada non existant in the eyes of the USA. When Obama speaks people listen when harper speaks no one cares. USA is the TV and canada is the couch
The true gateway to China is East Russia / Siberia based on export development activity. The port of Vancouver pales in comparison but there’s lots of HAM flowing into the city of Vancouver to take advantage of universal health care, a good English school system, a relatively clean environment, and a developed legal system with well-enforced property rights. Nothing more..
Before you guys all lose your shit trying to prove Rusty wrong, ask yourself whether it would better serve your interests that there are more people who hold fallacious ideas about real estate or less in the long term. I think it puts me at an advantage as a future buyer if more people jump onto a sinking vessel.
“this is the most beautiful city in the world,”
Only a person who has never traveled outside of North America can say something like this. Or a totally brainwashed idiot.
“where you can ski one moment and boat 30 minutes later in the Pacific Ocean.”
Tired old bullshit. I bet that this guy has never done this in his life and is just repeating the crap from realtors.
raise your hand if you both ski and sail
raise both hands if you’ve ever skied and sailed in the same day
i’ve skied twice in the same day, does that count?
i skied and [obscene ad hominen edited out -ed].
“Don’t feel bad for this man, he owns a boat.”
Im one of these wealthy asians you all speak of, and so is my family, believe me when i say this Vancouver is not our choice of city to live. Vancouver is a beautiful city, i won’t deny that but citizens of a world class city do not need to keep on proclaiming “we are a world class city”. Most wealthy asians i know would much prefer to live somewhere else and DO!
Reality is that we like to park our cash here and use your education and health care system because its so easy. Don’t mistake a haven for a world class city, the inside joke in China is that Vancouverites think they are the gateway for china but in reality they are just a momentary stop gap or parking lot for our $$$$$$$$ and when things change we will pull out faster then we arrived.
Blame your politicians for this or better yet blame yourselves for leaving the front door open to your house for anybody to come in and eat what they want, speculate on what is yours and gamble you out of affordability in your own neighborhoods. And when things go awry we will leave your city just like we leave a mahjong table but you will be left holding a mountain of debt because u didn’t pay for your house with CASH like us.
“Never do business with a religious son-of-a-bitch. His word ain’t worth a shit — not with the Good Lord telling him how to fuck you on the deal.”
— William S. Burroughs
“Most wealthy asians i know would much prefer to live somewhere else and DO!”
I don’t doubt that. Out of curiosity, which are the more preferable places for wealthy Chinese? I have a feeling that despite its recent problems, the US still enjoys a more prestigious status in the eyes of Chinese emigrants.
oh puleeeeeeeeeeease.
vreaa can we get a rusty check on this post pls?
I don’t think anyone here believes you’re wealthy or asian. The majority of asian immigrants stay here – just look around.
Except for the ones who get extradited. =)
Would you be kind enough to teach me your magical skill of arriving at conclusions like ‘The majority of … ‘ simply by looking around? You should run Statistics Canada. The census would be a breeze. Just look around and voila …
Hmm… ‘Confucious say’, “Christian’s syntax is shockingly ’round-eye’.” Then again, you’d be surprised what a quality education can accomplish – that said, affluent ‘Confucians’ tend towards inscrutability vs. boast (manners, you know – the legacy of civilization).
More to the point re: MM’s query… By the standards of the eighties, when ‘Nem’ led a more flamboyantly ‘sporty’ life it would have been impossible to both ski and race yachts on the same day. If you’d been skiing – you’d be too exhausted (who here knows what a ‘cooly’ is?) to sail… If you been sailing (truth be told, yacht racing), you’d be too drunk to ski.