The 7th game of the Stanley Cup Finals comes to Vancouver this Wednesday, 15th June 2011. Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks tied at 3-3, obviously.
The behavioural economists may be interested in some of the parallels between Canuck play-off success and the housing markets. Apparently ‘jesse’ has already pointed out elsewhere [link anyone?] that the last two occasions the Canucks made the finals came close to peaks in Vancouver housing:
- June 1994 was at the top of the late 80′s/early 90′s bubble, followed by years of price declines.
- June 1982 was in the middle of the fastest and biggest RE bust Vancouver has seen since the 1930′s.
Now, before we all scoff at this as random chance association (which is a possible explanation, of course), consider the possibility that there may be a relationship between market strength and team performance:
1. Via psychological factors: thus: high housing prices -> wealth-effect -> over-the-top-enthusiastic-fans -> better team performance -> finals.
[I'm sure we've all been particularly impressed by the strength of home ice advantage in this series; the psychology of the fans appears to have a massive effect on team performance.]
2. Via economic factors: thus: fans flush with RE_ATM funds/wealth effect -> spend more money on tickets and trinkets -> team richer -> material benefits and psychological boost -> finals.
[Anybody care to do an analysis of ticket prices in Vancouver vs Boston? Could these numbers possibly correlate with local housing market strength? We wouldn't be at all surprised if they do.
Rusty, in a post here at VREAA pointed out that he could have purchased a package to see games 3 and 4 in Boston, including hotel and flight, for $995. Here in Vancouver, single tickets for game 5 were trading online for $2K-$5K ask.]
All of this talk may sound bizarre but there is a whole school of analysis that looks at these relationships, namely socionomics.
Ever heard of ‘Skirt Length Theory’ and bull markets? Not the best market timing devices, to be sure, but, similarly, not to be discarded out of hand.
And, before you disregard the possibility of this relationship completely, consider that the fans in Boston have not been moved to produce signs alluding to housing finance. These fan signs from Game 2 here in Vancouver:
‘NUX TIX OR MORTGAGE PAYMENT?’ and ‘HOPE THEY DON’T TAKE THE HOUSE’ [For close ups and discussion, see VREAA post, 5 Jun 2011]: