Sauder Economist – “It’s not sustainable.”

Excerpted from an article [nsnews.com 25 May 2011] discussing a recent surge in sales and prices of properties on Vancouver’s North-shore:
A report on the Canadian real estate market released last week by RE/MAX pointed to a surge in the sales of luxury homes across the country, with overseas investment being a driving factor in the West. A May 19 report by Landcor Data Corporation, a company that specializes in B.C. real estate statistics, similarly pointed to China as the major force behind the Lower Mainland’s market.
But Tsur Somerville, a professor with UBC’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate, cautioned against drawing such conclusions.
“Who knows?” he said. “It becomes very problematic sorting things out.”
Somerville did concede, however, that it was a plausible explanation.
“There is grounds for it in the sense that mainland China is the largest source of immigrants (to the Lower Mainland) right now,” he said. “Immigrants coming from China are disproportionately in the entrepreneur and investor categories; they’re coming in with wealth.”
Why it might suddenly be happening now, however, was hard to say, he noted. Somerville scoffed at the notion, floated by Landcor in an interview with the North Shore News last month, that it could be attributed to the Olympics, or to Canada’s recent designation as an approved destination by the Chinese government. “I would be very shocked,” said Somerville. “The approval by China affects tourism here; that’s not the same thing.”
One thing is for certain about the flurry of purchases, however, he said: “It’s not sustainable.”

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that Tsur Sommerville has been quoted as saying that anything about the Vancouver RE market is “not sustainable”. – vreaa

11 Responses to Sauder Economist – “It’s not sustainable.”

  1. I don’t think there’s anyone who thinks it will last forever. But it may last long enough to make every house owner a millionaire before it slows. By then the next reason for Vancouver real estate to rise will have taken hold.

  2. More evidence some people are starting to get annoyed by unsustainable capital flows.

  3. “Why it might suddenly be happening now, however, was hard to say, he noted.”

    It’s called money laundering and/or getting capital out of China before its bubble pops.

  4. Three articles (from yesterday alone):
    China seen as candidate for ‘next catastrophe’ – Telegraph
    China bad-loan surge coming: S&P – CNBC
    Chanos Misses Out as Chinese Stocks in U.S. Plunge on Accounting – BL

    China will not continue to expand at 10% p.a., indefinitely.

    • I read Michael Pettis for the beat in China. Here’s his latest: http://mpettis.com/2011/05/looking-for-debt/

      “An unsustainable rise in debt is, for me, one of the key indicators that the investment-driven model has passed its useful life and is generating negative growth while posting positive growth numbers. This is why I spend so much time trying to understand debt levels and the structure of balance sheets.”

      Generating negative growth while posting positive growth.

    • There are also a story about some peasant who got his house and land stolen by corrupt Chinese communist (I repeat myself) officials and protested for 10 years, to no avail, who finally went ballistic and blew up his car with himself in it… It seems to have touched a raw nerve there… This might be the same type of incident as the vegetable vendor in Tunisia who lit himself on fire to protest government corruption…

      • lol

        china will NEVER be disharmonious!

        china already has democracy, it is called the Communist Party!

        china has democracy with chinese characteristics.

  5. Jaime Summers

    I would love to see the Tsur’s greatest comments collection by date.

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