Vancouver Realtor Jay McInnes, Sales Agent, Macdonald Realty, as quoted at PropertyWire.ca, 20 May 2011 – “This is just the beginning. Affordability will be a factor from now on in the Vancouver Real Estate Market. [hasn't it always been a factor? - ed.] The rate that the city is growing and the product ranges that we are seeing, it will get harder and harder to enter the Vancouver Real Estate Market. This is just a fact of life if you are living and working in this part of the world. If you want all of the luxuries that the world has recognised we have here in Vancouver, the majority of people have a very hard road ahead.” … “Without a crystal ball, I believe the market (in general) will continue to slowly rise over the next few years (assuming world economies move positively forward). Don’t forget, after the recession hit in ’08 the Downtown Vancouver market was back to where it began (pre-recession) within 9 months! I greatly thank the conservative levels of Canadian Banking for that and I don’t see that changing any time soon.”
We beg to disagree with Jay.
The uncalled for Vancouver RE bail-out of 2008-2009 is something to regret, rather than celebrate. Like giving cocaine to a dying racehorse to get one last sprint out of it, the ‘emergency’ interest rates gave unwarranted legs to our speculative mania, ensuring that the inevitable crash will be that much more destructive.
And, regarding the “very hard road ahead”… let’s just say that ‘affordability’ will greatly improve… in the form of much lower ticket prices after the crash. – vreaa
Speaking of, “…a very hard road ahead”, DearReaders… Here’s your PostCardsFromTheBlastRadius TeaserTrailer (currently in the VREAA DigitalPipeLine!)…
“If you see a faded sign at the side of the road that says
“15 miles to the
Love[in] Shack”
Love[in] Shack, yeah, yeah
I’m headin’ down the [Okanagan] highway
Lookin’ for the love getaway
Headed for the love getaway
I got me a car, it’s as big as a whale
And we’re headin’ on down to the Love[in] Shack!”…
http://tinyurl.com/ksenh4
“We beg to disagree with Jay”
Vreaa
You are too polite with such self-serving propagandists who take advantage of unsuspecting (and foolish) masses who will ultimately have to bear the brunt and the consequences.
the problem is that the masses always ignore the wisdom of others for their own prejudices – whether they put said prejudices into their own heads or not.
as Canadians, some of us are more prone to politeness than others – everyone gets the one chance rule with me.
to some, ‘it’s the myth of nice’ and to others, it’s actually how we were raised.
“as Canadians, some of us are more prone to politeness than others – …….”
I am sure Canadians are lesser mortals than other.
“to some, ‘it’s the myth of nice’ and to others, it’s actually how we were raised.
”
And the rest are all savages raised by wolves
And you forgot to ask me if I wanted the BS in paper or plastic
gr:
i am covering all my bases
in reality, we are an impatient, passive aggressive and spoiled lot.
‘the myth of nice’
you can’t have my bs in either paper or plastic – you can have it in high speed digital packets, though.
I love how “sales agents” who have no economic training and a tenuous grasp of critical thinking make pronouncements about the direction of real estate markets. Here are some factors which look pretty ominous from the cheap seats:
- The US is our biggest trading partner. We export 70% of our goods south of the border. The US is flat on its back even with record monetary and fiscal stimulus. That stimulus is coming to an end with QE2 and the Tea Party flexing its fiscal orthodoxy.
-Interest rates are on the rise. Carney et al. have all been telegraphing this to consumers. 1/3 of Canadians on variable mortgages ignore this fact at their own peril.
-Europe is ready to explode from a currency POV. Greece is just the appetizer. Greek 2 year bonds are yielding 25%. Once Greece defaults, there will be a huge repricing of “risk” by bond investors worldwide.
-Canadians are over-indebted like never before. Average debt is 150% of yearly income. We’re hitting the debt wall.
-70% of Canadians own home. This percentage is higher than when the US RE market blew up… Everyone who hasn’t bought is either too poor, too over-leveraged or refusing to pay these over-inflated prices.
There are 20+ catalysts for prices to drop in the next 2-3 years.
Canada is so far behind the US in this real estate correction that we’ve deluded ourselves in believing we’ve avoided it.
“Canada is so far behind the US in this real estate correction that we’ve deluded ourselves in believing we’ve avoided it.”
—
Very nicely put.
everytime i hear someone say that we’ve avoided the correction i just think back to 2008 when i thought we were finally having it, and then they dropped rates and introduced the 35 and 40 year mortgages.
LOL now that’s a free market!!
Just to clarify, Pollyanna, the CMHC approved 35 and 40 year mortgages prior to the real estate collapse in the United States. While they were introduced, as you say, as a turn to the new Canadian “free market” under the Conservative government (see AIG), these measures were introduced when everyone thought the economic foundations were fine and dandy.
Only after the collapse of the American housing (and other economic factors) market and seeing our own dips, did we actually start seeing banks curtail these higher risk mortgages, with the eventual cancellation by CMHC in 2010 and 2011.
While interest rates were dropped to keep our housing market from spiraling out of control, keep in mind that interest rates, of which mortgage rates are interdependent on, effect a lot more than just housing. While I am not an apologist for our government, the BoC, or Mr. Carney, our government’s reactionary methods have appeared to pay off. For now.
Don’t let the fearmongers drive the car either, though. While there are those here that can pull off lots of scary debt numbers and other various numbers, they have their counterparts in the “life-is-wonderful” crowd that can give just as “convincing” numbers about the exact opposite conclusions.
Don’t listen to speculators. Put yourself in the best financial position as possible. Alternate your financial literacy between Robert Kiyosaki and Garth Turner. Don’t buy mortgages you can’t afford in 5 years. If the market collapses, its going to suck for everyone – but you can’t live your life under a rock. Buy – because our capitalist society depends on it – but buy smart.
nba:
i’m sardonically referring to it as a ‘free market’ because in a free market you wouldn’t have the gubmint stepping in to determine terms on anything at all.
but that only exists in the fantasy world of the mind of von Mises.
we get something else.
Jay McInnes took a course in hospitality in Australia. On his linkedIn page, he claims to have education from UBC. In reality, he only took the correspondence real estate licensing course at UBC. For some reason, it took him 2 years.
Obviously, at PropertyWire.ca, that makes him an expert.
Realtors should keep their mouths shut about market direction and concentrate on “the sale”. Sounds like a lack of #winning to me…
As a REALTOR® myself, I would have to agree with Jesse. Speculation and macroeconomics are not what we are trained for. Even moreso, the majority of real estate professionals in the business today (in the Vancouver area) have jumped on board over the last ten years and really know nothing about real estate cycles or interdependency.
I always say, the last person you should ask to whether “now” is the “best time” to buy in real estate is a real estate agent. Our job is to sell real estate – it crushes me when I hear people buying because their agent told them that “now” is a great time to buy. People need to do their own homework. The best people to ask are experienced real estate investors who understand how the market works.
But you should buy based on what you need. If you are selling in a high market, you are likely buying in a high market. If you are selling in a low market, you are buying in low market. Your agent’s job is to sell your home for the best price or find you the best home/deal in the market you are in and make sure you don’t get screwed over in the process.
Don’t listen to speculators.
Agree
Realtors like yourself are an exception
they are out there
and i’m sure they hold the huge % of newbie realtors in very low esteem.
VREAA can predict the future, the crash is coming. I hope you are not one of the followers that predicted the end of the world yesterday. Have you been raptured yet!
What’s especially frightening is Bank economists jumping on this bandwagon of “Hot Asian Money” and its benefit to Canadian real estate prices… This is from the Financial Post… Benjamin Tal points to the continuation of HAM as the most “sustainable trend”. Sheesh, It’s called “hot” money for a reason…
———————-
“The other issue remains how much room there is for price appreciation and Mr. Tal says plenty based on foreign investment which is driving the market.”
“I cannot think of a more sustainable trend than China growing and Chinese money entering Canada,” says Mr. Tal. “People say it’s crazy, crazy, but it’s the most sustainable trend I can think of.”
“don’t listen to speculators”
Well said. And don’t forget that speculators are also sitting on the sidelines renting and “speculating” on a crash, or significant correction. Buyers should be assessing their own position and determining their future based on finances, family status, age, wealth, etc.
“don’t listen to perma-bull online posters”