The Third Fundamental: Total Housing Market Value to GDP – BC in the Stratosphere

BC Housing Stock value: >$1 Trillion [actually, $1,043,127,129,141]
BC GDP: $191 Billion [2009]
Ratio: 5.46 to 1

sources: 2011 BC Property Assessment Notice, nfbpsh.blogspot.com 1 May 2011, and wikipedia [with hat-tip to commenter ‘GG’ at nfbpsh].

Price:Rent and Price:Income ratios suggest that BC housing is two to three times overvalued. The TotalHousingValue:GDP ratio supports those conclusions and, in fact, suggests that the overvaluation may be even greater.  It seems almost impossible to conceive, but this ‘third fundamental’ suggests that housing values in BC could drop by about half and we’d still be as overvalued compared to GDP at the Irish were at the beginning of their collapse! Note, too, that the market ‘value’ of housing in BC is likely underestimated as it makes use of property assessment values and we all know that housing in Vancouver is ‘worth’ at least 25% more in current markets.
There is absolutely no doubt regarding the existence of a massive bubble.
How much more extreme can things get before we implode? – vreaa

3 responses to “The Third Fundamental: Total Housing Market Value to GDP – BC in the Stratosphere

  1. Confirms what we all know, this market is toast.

  2. Kinda reminds me of a story about a guy with is finger in the dike… I guess now the question is how much longer will it take before his finger turns black and rots off?

  3. I can see a 50% price drop being possible. I lived in San Diego a few years back before they crashed hard. All of the same arguments were being made back then as to why San Diego was uniquely positioned to enjoy indefinite price increases. After moving up here I just laughed and saved my money. No regrets.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s