This anecdote extracted from Garth Turner’s headline piece at greaterfool.ca, 1 May 2011 -
“Corey sold a house in Vancouver last year and was sitting on eight hundred grand. In a wretched savings account. Where, he opined, to invest? Corey’s spouse was hot to burn through all that cash, using it as a downpayment on new digs.
On 30 April, Corey wrote the following: “My wife is out of patience. She constantly refers to some friends who were waiting for the correction, then capitulated after tiring of living with the in-laws for a year. They built their new dream home (just moved in) and could likely sell for several hundred thousand more than they built for. Everyone believes it is different here because of the Chinese buyers, and the social pressure is enormous.
Nothing makes sense anymore:
* wages are stagnant,
* a lot of people are highly indebt[ed] and leveraged but do not seem to worry
* economically things don’t make sense to support an escalating housing market, but everyone here drinks the cool-aid they are fed by the MSM
* people are insane – some in our hood are buying and then trying to flip the house within say 6 months for 200,000 – 300,000 profit (with little or no renos).
* Anyone who dares suggest that interest rates are about to rise soon dismiss the idea saying that the impact will be minimal, or that the government will not raise rates with a high dollar etc.
* If I suggest to friends that the housing market is going to correct they look at me as if I have 2 heads
* Some are so confident that nothing will change that they are buying before they have sold, gambling that they will get their price (or more)
. . . I am beginning to doubt . . . and to wonder myself if the Chinese do make things “different here”?”
All that stuff happened in the States with no “Chinese invasion.” The more insane and feverish it gets, the closer you are to the end.
At some point everyone looks at each other, realizes that nobody really believes in the fundamentals of the market, and everyone makes for the exit at the same time.
Agreed.
No way of knowing when, however. Players are so, so crazy.
This has gone on for 3-5 years more than we expected, perhaps there is no bottom to the well of ignorance.
Oh no! Even you are starting to doubt! Now that must signal a top.
Unfortunately, I’ve tried to use my extreme level of exasperation with the Vancouver RE market as a timing tool in the past and it has thus far always failed.
BTW (here we go again, prognosticating)… risk assets again looking strained/toppy last two days, so, who knows, Snats, may be truth in your observation.
if this dipshit didn’t sell his principal residence out of greed he wouldn’t be worrying about what the market is doing, or why fundamentals don’t matter, or Chinese immigrants, or…
Rusty, voted “classiest poster on vreaa” by readers, tells it like it is. You better know that if you try to time the market “stuff” can happen.
What’s the bet he had a conversation with his wife before they sold stating, “You know, we have to acknowledge we might be wrong and prices might go even higher. Are we prepared to deal with what that might mean for our family?”
Methinks not. Welcome to the other side of the tracks of Greedsville. Let your misery be a warning to others, and let the misery of those who make vreaa’s cut for anecdotes in five years be warnings as well. Pro tip: to avoid misery concentrate on things that won’t make you miserable: never look back!