thinktom (a local realtor) at RE Talks 19 Apr 2011 7:20pm – “We just called a Shaughnessy listing, currently showing as ‘active’ on MLS, for our buyers. It’s listed in the $2.9 million range. It has already sold. It had 11 offers, only one of which was the asking price apparently and the rest over asking. The final sale price was $3.7 million. Amazing that there are at least 11 groups searching for $3 million dollar homes. This also means there were probably 3-4 waiting in the wings but not willing to bite due to too many competing offers.”
silverman (another local realtor) 19 Apr 2011 7:29pm – “Shhhhh… there are many wounded bears in here.”
poundcruncher 19 Apr 2011 7:41pm – “Yep, no $3M + listings on the westside….
Wait, only 180 of them.
Wait… only 120 of them listed for more than 30 days.
Wait… where are all the multiple offers on those ones?
I’ve got 120 anecdotes of homes not selling.”
eyesthebye 20 Apr 2011 5:01pm – “It’s puzzling how little bears know about the demand for a detached home in this city. It’s almost like they know nobody here – work alone, and have no family. If they had an ounce of social skill they’d have heard all the stories about folks living in a condo/townhouse or renting that wanted to buy a detached property. Maybe it’s healthy to deny the truth – they sleep better at night. I’ve been saying all along that we have no more than 10-15% to shed at the very worst here in Vancouver – and likely less than this, or zilch. Remember my “itchy trigger finger” theory.” [The theory that buyers on the sidelines will jump in at any small pullback in prices. -ed.]
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Immeasurable – Too large, extensive, or extreme to measure.
Unmeasurable – Impossible to measure
Very common Vancouver RE logical fallacy:
Vancouver is a very nice place to live; therefore many, many people want to live here; therefore demand is essentially limitless; therefore prices will never drop in any significant way.
Demand is hard to measure. More like raindrops than bricks, it can evaporate in a single afternoon.
We are of the opinion that, when prices do next start dropping in earnest, the speculative component of the market (those buying and those holding largely because prices are going up) will create supply that will completely overwhelm any demand from sideline buyers.
But this is just an opinion; again: Demand is hard to measure.
– vreaa
You mean there’s a difference between “immeasurable” and “unmeasurable”? Dang, girl!
Recently, we went to look at a 1.6m tear down on the Westside with a lot of great neighborhood attributes – across from a park, etc. 10 days after listing and after receiving offers, the price was raised around 400k (!) and it sits for sale 4 weeks later. This has been happening with increasing frequency all over the Westside and in West Van, where properties are listed with no intention of selling, but only to determine their market value plus profit. At the other realtors’ expense of preparing offers and having clients genuinely interested in buying a home or land, the selling realtor sits back and lets the market tell them what it’s worth. They make only a marginal commission for raising the price, so what is the incentive? If you were an offshore seller, and an agent came back with 33% over list price, you’d be pretty happy. You might even financially reward them for their incredible abilities above and beyond the agreed (and legal) commission. This is an entirely plausible marketing tactic aimed at offshore sellers and buyers who are not well versed in the market. “Here, I made you an amazing profit” only to turn around to similar clients and say “Look here, what a deal”.
‘Demand’ is a ‘tricky’ thing… especially, when you’re trying to prognosticate ‘aggregate demand’. And MeasuringIt??? TrickiestOfTheTricky.
For example, here’s a perfect/recent illustration of that very same conundrum…
[ChinaDaily] LiarLiarPantsOnFire! Pre-Sale Speculator Self-Immolates On Exiting MetroTown Presentation Centre
http://tinyurl.com/3kqhqgu