TPFKAA at VREAA 28 Dec 2010 4:07pm -
“I visited a friend for some drinks recently. Thought long and hard about bringing up real estate… then thought I owed it to them to at least mention what several economists and respected experts have been saying lately that may impact their lives. They sold a nice SFH back East and bought a “poky, tiny – in their words” condo here 3 years ago, with downpayment help from family; despite household income above average. So I asked if they had been following the Van real estate market recently.
“Why?”
“Because some have been saying that there may be a little bit of a correction coming.”
(I deliberately understate here… being cautious not to spoil the mood)
“That’s what we’re scared of. We’re worried that we’re going to get stuck here, with the value being less than what we owe on it. We’re pretty worried. Now we’re thinking that if we can escape with breaking even, we’ll be okay. We’ll be ok with that”
“So have you thought about putting it up for sale?”
“Not now. Not right now. We’ll wait till next summer.”
“I can point you in the direction of some websites where people post analyses and economic indicators and stuff to help you with your decisions. If you like.”
“We’ll work it out, It’s okay.”
He then quickly changes the subject. He’s obviously very worried, with a growing family, about becoming trapped by negative equity – it was clearly not their choice for a multi-decade domicile. I avoid the subject completely from now on. It’s not my business and I don’t want to say whose predictions are correct. But I would try selling now, knowing what I know.”
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Latest Anecdotes:
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- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
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- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
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- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
- More Undisclosed RE Industry Insiders Publicized As Clients – “In 1995, Allan and Karin Hoegg were mortgage-free. But no more. Today their Vancouver home is a valuable source of income as they plan for full retirement.”
- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
- “What’s the worst that can happen? You can’t pay your mortgage, so sell your house! No fear.”

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I have had this conversation more than a dozen times myself. It is very difficult to speak to people about the pending fall of Real Estate in Vancouver. It is just such an emotional subject.
I’ll make a few suppositions:
- This family wants to upgrade in a year due to needing more space for a family. Their primary concern is not market timing.
- They feel at the mercy of the market; renting is not an option for them due to perceived lower quality of life. They are inelastic market participants.
Nothing weird here but it shows how tragic an unstable real estate market can be.
Agreed.
Plus, timing is so tricky. We may hope that this is the year the bubble stops eating our city, but in 2008 we were getting a good correction on and everything reversed at speed.
Junius said.. “It is very difficult to speak to people about the pending fall of Real Estate in Vancouver” — Yes it is very difficult when you’ve been bearish for 5 years and wrong every year, people start laughing at you. Bears as a whole are usually irrational but Junius is in a league of his own and he really owns the podium of stupidity. In case you didn’t know he’s been banned from many boards for his ridiculously uneducated posts.
James -> For the record, there have been 2 posters using the handle ‘junius’ on some blogs, one especially to bug the other, it seems.
Previously discussed 2010/12/12 at 1:35 pm
James -> “Yes it is very difficult when you’ve been bearish for 5 years and wrong every year, people start laughing at you.”
—
In his newsletter today, David Rosenberg has an interesting discussion about how all of the jeering that he suffered through the mid-2000′s completely disappeared when his bearish warnings came to pass (2008); and about how quickly people forgot that he’d been wrong for those intervening years.
As he put it: “It goes to show that in the final analysis, as much as it hurts not to be involved in a speculative rally that sees the market surge more than 80%, it is much much tougher to actually experience a correction in the other direction.”
A speculative bubble can go on a long time. After it has come and gone, it’s far more important to have identified it, and to have taken evasive action, than it is to get the timing right.
Obviously, if you miss the upward movement you still have what you had before. If you miss the downward movement it can wipe you out.
That’s what all of these Bulls forget, or rather try to pretend isn’t a reality.
I still think the real quakes will start in 2013 when all those five year mortgages done in 2008 and 2009 start resetting.
BTW, will banks just refinance even though the property is worth less now? Or will they demand that the difference be paid off before writing a new Mortgage?
Michael: if the mortgage was CMHC insured, I think the banks are OK to renew. If the mortgage isn’t insured, your guess is as good as mine– I don’t know if the bank could even *legally* renew it.
If interest rates go up to the point where the borrower isn’t able to afford them, I don’t know if the bank can renew the mortgage, even if it’s CMHC-insured…
james, have you heard about the man who jumped off a tall building? as he fell past the 60th floor, he said to himself “so far so good”. As he hit the 2oth floor, he repeated “so far so good.”
It turned out that it did not matter how often he was right or wrong on the way down, and that it’s not how you fall that matters, but how you land.
There are more than a few people who have sold and rented waiting for a crash, only to have the market stay “irrational” far longer than they imagined.
While I’m bearish on re prices it helps to remember that greed and entitlement aren’t exclusively the domains of bulls.
Interest rates are going up in mid 2011, so say a lot of economists, and property prices are going up, so say BC Assessment (someone has to pay for the bike lanes). Minimum wages are staying pat. People are going to be at the end of their financial limits this year I reckon…then we’ll see the start of the fall (unfortunately.)
http://www.vancouverpropertynews.com/vancouver-property-prices-up-and-property-taxes-up/30/
Yeah, because the thousands of kilometres of road for cars comes free.
I really wish people would at least take a look at Vancouvers budget before spouting such nonsense over and over.
James,
I have never been banned from any Boards. Name one.
What a stupid comment. Bulls are really reaching these days.
Nervous days indeed.
jesse,
You said, “While I’m bearish on re prices it helps to remember that greed and entitlement aren’t exclusively the domains of bulls.”
Agreed. It is why bubbles need to be contained. They create an environment of fear and greed that is bad for everyone. We see value in asset classes instead of making things are are really valuable. It is why the underlying economy has suffered so much during the past decade (or more).
Vancouver is tied very tightly with China. We’ll have to wait for their spectacular failure before we get a correction (5-10%).
CH,
Do you mean because of commodity prices or Chinese buyers who account for roughly 10% of the market?
Chinese buyers don’t wag the dog; the market’s too big. I thought that would be obvious.
ask your friend to buy Garth’s book and become Garth follower, joint your friend to this blog, vci and he is set for life!
well you know what, Im calling BS on calling BS on Chinas effect on BC. Why are Hong Kong / Candada / Australia the only ones left who havent burst yet??? Its b/c China is still roaring and buying resources from and buying houses in both places… thats it..
I don’t know about Hong Kong, but Canada and Australia were “saved” by reckless credit expansion. People were freaked in 2008, but the bubble mentality was never extinguished. Super low interest rates, home buyer grants in Australia, and the CMHC approval of “as many high risk borrowers as possible” created the bounce in real estate. Chinese lunacy (money supply +50%, forced lending) maintained commodities demand which helped put a floor under our economy.
Look at this article and note the part about how countries that experience a “good crisis” typically crash two and a half years later, having learned nothing and believing themselves immune to the same problems:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8230654/Overheating-East-to-falter-before-the-bankrupt-West-recovers.html
That sounds just like us!