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Ian Watt, a Vancouver condo realtor, seems like a genuinely good chap. His energy is infectious, and his self-posted videos are so often entertaining.
In a recent video [29 Oct 2010, fully transcribed below], however, he demonstrates questionable judgment (“Vancouver is ‘ten times’ better than Winnipeg”) and laughably outrageous logic (“…therefore Vancouver prices should be ’10 times’ those of Winnipeg”).
Ian also seems to have lost grasp of just how much Vancouver RE prices have risen (“I don’t think that they are going to drop 30% back to prices of 15, 20 years ago”). A 30% price drop won’t even take us back to 2005, let alone 1995 or 1990 (which would require drops of about 60% and 80% respectively).
So many people seem to think that our market couldn’t possibly drop more than 10%. -vreaa
[Thanks to 'westsidefrank' for the transcription]
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Hi, Good afternoon, It ‘s Ian Watt in downtown Vancouver. I had an email yesterday from a prospective client that says my husband and I have been looking for a home in Vancouver for a while but the prices are so inflated and Vancouver is so overhyped, do you ever think that the prices are going to go down to a reasonable level?
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Well, I don’t know what the prices are going to do. My personal feeling and it’s just a feeling, is that we are going to stay at this level for awhile unless the interest rates or the mortgage rates shoot up… I don’t think the prices are going to change too much, maybe 5%, maybe 10%, if the mortgage rates go up. Who knows? Who knows? But the reality is that if the mortgage rates go up you’re going to pay more in the end anyways.
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But the way I look at it is that Vancouver in not overhyped because, if you look at the average sale price of a house in Winnipeg, say $250,000 (it could have changed a little bit here or there since I checked last), but if you’ve ever been to Winnipeg, you realize that Vancouver is ten times better. Our average price should be 2.5 million dollars for an average house in Vancouver but it’s not, it’s about a million dollars for an average house in Vancouver. So I think mathematically speaking, yes, Vancouver prices are pretty accurate or even undervalued compared to Winnipeg.
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But, in reality prices are expensive in Vancouver. It’s a very sought after area, BC stands for ‘Bring Cash’ so make sure if you are going to move to Vancouver be prepared for a million dollar price tag on your typical house.
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I don’t know where the prices are going. I don’t think they are going to shoot up at all in the next 4 years. I could be wrong. I’ve been wrong before, but I don’t think that they are going to drop 30% back to prices of 15, 20 years ago. I just don’t see it happening. They seem to be holding their own price levels right now, maybe we will see a little bit of a correction… maybe 5%, but it is not going to change and impact your buy ability, that’s for sure.
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My name is Ian Watt, and if you have any questions you can always e-mail me at IanWatt at ianwatt.ca. Thank you very much and have a great day!
Most Recent Comments:
- LadyInWaiting on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
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- bailinginbc on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Real Estate Tsunami on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Real Estate Tsunami on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- LadyInWaiting on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Nemesis on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- terminalcitygirl on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Xyz on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- rod_jonsson on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- terminalcitygirl on “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
Type of Anecdote
- 01. He Said, She Said (247)
- 02. Profiting from the Boom (441)
- 03. Changed my Life (103)
- 04. Changed my Career (38)
- 05. Where do Buyers get the money? (958)
- 06. Held my Nose and Leapt (96)
- 07. Avoiding Vancouver (375)
- 08. Overextended Buyers (1183)
- 09. Delaying Buying (315)
- 10. Demoralized Renters? (362)
- 11. Regrets about Investing in RE (417)
- 12. Effects of Development (274)
- 13. 2010 Olympics Related (74)
- 14. Social Effects of the Boom (1256)
- 15. Misallocation of Resources (958)
- 16. Missed The Boat? (236)
- 17. The Froogle Scott Chronicles (27)
- 18. Spot The Speculator (171)
- 19. BlastRadiusPostCards (17)
- 20. The Limitless Demand Argument For Ongoing Market Strength (70)
- 21. Vancouver RE-Verse [Found Poems] (8)
- 22. RE References In Popular Culture (41)
- 23. Jumping The Shark (1)
- 24. Policies On Housing (10)
- 25. Epigrams For The Bubble (1)
- 26. Premature Calls Of "Bottom" (3)
- 27. Seller Panic (3)
- 28. Erroneous Causation Theories For Falling Prices (7)
- 29. Bubblespeak (1)
- Uncategorized (176)
Blogroll
- 01 Vancouver Condo Info
- 02 AmericaCanada [retired, no archive]
- 03 Housing Analysis
- 04 RealEstateTalks BC
- 05 Vancouver RE and then some
- 06 Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest
- 07 Greater Fool
- 08 Canada Bubble
- 09 Rob Chipman's blog
- 10 YatterMatters
- 11 condohype [retired; archives available]
- 12 vancouver (un)real estate
- 13 Agent Will's Stats [retired]
- 14 Landlord Rescue
- 15 The Economic Analyst
- 16 Canadian Housing Price Charts
- 17 Hoodsurf [retired Jun 2011]
- 18 World Housing Bubble
- 19 Vancouver Price Drop
- 20 North American Economics
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Latest Anecdotes:
- “My neighbours, in their late 60s, just put their house on the market. They had said they would die in that house, but now they are worried that with the housing market going south they may be losing a lot of equity and they better sell now before it gets worse.”
- Chat Thread
- Taking A Break
- “My best guess: this property is now an ‘investment hold’ and will be built ‘when prices recover’. Good luck on that!”
- Man Loses $745,000 Vancouver Condo Deposit
- Graphic – Degrees of Housing Overvaluation in Canada
- The Rare Individual With A Negative Ownership Premium
- Advice Regarding Renting In Vancouver, Please – “Unfortunately, the Vancouver rental stock is absolutely atrocious. It just seems like every landlord is looking for someone to pay 100% of their mortgage on a crappy place through rental income.”
- “I just visited Manhattan for a week, and happened to snap some real estate ads on both the Upper West and Upper East sides of the island. Compare to Vancouver. It simply doesn’t compute.”
- Ben Rabidoux In Vancouver Next Week
- “The mortgage company told me they were calling in my 40-year, 0-down mortgage. I have paid nearly sixty thousand dollars towards it, but, nearly five years in, I have yet to touch the principal.”
- ‘Vancouver City Hall: Housing Report Card 2012′; Plus Revised Version
- “My folks find themselves at 65 still owing half the value of their home and recreation property to the bank. After almost 30 years of ownership in the BPOE and a number of boom markets, they have very little to show for it.”
- “Rent for $2,200 a month or buy and have a mortgage of $4,310 per month. Why would anyone buy?”
- “They were talking about two couples they knew who had recently bought a lot and planned to each build a house on it and live as neighbours.”
- Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Annual First-Time Buyer Seminar Attendance Plummets
- Mom and Pop Get It Wrong In All Markets, Time And Again
- The average British Columbian homeowner is not going to pay off their mortgage by the time they retire.
- “He’s sold all his properties except his current one, which is now for sale. He explained that the market’s currently in crash mode, worst that he’s ever seen.”
- “One of my old high school buddies finally got her mother to sell the family home in Kitsilano – sold for over $1M, monies realized after debt paid off $185K.”
- “I know someone who just declared bankruptcy because her condo was assessed at $150k and she bought it presale north of $250k in 2005 or 2006.”
- Sturdy, With Views – “Calling Froogle Scott!… Is Dr. Scott ‘In The House’?” [Not In This One, Certainly]
- “She said the market was dead in Victoria and that it would remain so for a very long time. I asked how she knew. Her answer was fascinating and should scare the pants off the real estate crowd.”
- Kits Notes – “I’m pretty sure that this is the first 3+ bedroom property of any type that I’ve seen in the 5 years I’ve lived here that is priced below $700K.”
- “A beautiful Belfast home, in the equivalent of 1st Shaughnessy, bought at their RE peak in 2007 for £3.5 million, has now sold for £800K, almost 80%-off. The market didn’t suffer any significant economic shocks. Rates & unemployment didn’t skyrocket. They didn’t build more land. Sentiment just changed and the prices fell and fell.”
- “Two family members of hers are trapped, underwater, in condos on the East Side.”
- “Interprovincial migration is not saying good things about BC’s economy.”
- Vancouver RE: Not As Expensive Provided You Don’t Think – “It’s clear that our perception of affordability has been coloured by living on a continent where housing is unusually inexpensive.”
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- Rumor that some OV units will be reduced by 20%.
- Downside Weights On The Vancouver RE Market – “One of the older guys (over 60) mention to the guy beside him that he and his wife were thinking about selling their family home, and renting, in order to get some of the money that was locked up in the house.”
- “My buddy was looking to upgrade to a house in the Coquitlam area. With 200k extra for a home, that’s half of lifetime saving between him and his wife.”
- “I was walking in the Fraser neighborhood yesterday, I noticed that the population, on average, seem to be composed of workers. I belong to the top 5 percent in terms of income. Nevertheless, I cannot afford any of the houses for sale in that neighbourhood.”
- “Vancouver is an urban resort whose value mostly resides in its real estate and not much else.”
- “Rogers Communications is expanding into RE; aiming to relaunch website; providing critical data that can help potential buyers assess the value of a property from the comfort of their home computer.”
- I’m only 50 and I can just about retire if I want to, all because of a single simple decision – “When prices rebounded to their former highs, then rocketed another 30% higher to what I considered to be totally unsustainable levels, I decided that only a fool would pass up a second opportunity to harvest such a massive non-taxable capital gain, and in 2011 I sold my place.”
- The Vacant Lot of Versailles, Richmond.
- “I don’t think that most people think things are going to crash, just that there is going to be a slight correction, but it was amazing to me how sentiment has changed, and the fact Vancouver RE is too high was just understood.”
- “The ‘investor’ who purchased our house put it up for sale two months later, in January 1981, but the bubble had burst.”
- For A City To Have That Kind Of Vacancy, It’s Like Cancer – “Downtown, the vacant unit rate is so high that it’s as though there were 35 towers at 20 storeys apiece – all empty.”
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I love the screencaps!
I can’t stand this guy. He is a such a fucking douchebag.
Yeah, reminds me of these guys
Is that a holding cell behind him in the picture? Was he there putting bond up for a professional friend perhaps?
I don’t have as strong a negative reaction to this guy as some of you guys do. He’s ‘quirky’, and ‘energetic’, but that’s fine. His message is much the same as any of many other realtors.
Yes, I do note (and find distasteful) his hypocrisy:
1. “I don’t know where prices are going to go; I’m not going to predict.”
2. “Prices are very unlikely to go down; bring money.”
But he’s a salesman, trying to make a buck, what do we expect?
And, yes, it is problematic that some people look to realtors for market guidance. They’re going to be the last to know where things are headed. Developers aren’t that much better off.
“I only work here” will end up being a common refrain.
Well if mathematician doesn’t work out, he could be a doctor:
What makes the world a fun place are those who are willing to have an opinion and unabashedly state it – be it bull or bear.
VREAA, your title is hilarious!
Watt’s videos are fun/funny and I wouldn’t take his messages seriously. Laugh and enjoy
I have met him and he is quirky, amusing and dangerously stupid to a buyers wellbeing. Wouldn’t it be nice to see this kinda creep put outta business.
PP
Yeah, I could see him perhaps being dangerous for buyers. Some may find him ‘persuasive’.
On the other hand, one could do worse than have him try to sell your condo, I’d imagine.
Hmm…the 10x better thing may be right, but at
the moment, I’d say both Van and Wpg are overpriced.
Avg house in Van should maybe be 200k, and Wpg
should be going for 20k. (In a sane world.)
We make ten times as much money in this egotistical paradise. This city contains slums that rival the worst in the world and is increasingly full of illegal Russians and Mexicans and El 13 bums, but it sure is better than Winnipeg.
This city full of wanna be jerks in their leased German cars and their Iphone, or whatever is the latest piece of brain frying crap that is marketed to the TWIT generation.
Grow up folks.
This City will be a nightmare when the bad news hits. Food production is at crisis levels, our largest trading partner is bankrupt and run by a man even more incompetent than George Bush. ( I didn’t think that was possible). Interest rates will hit the moon – take a look at Ireland and their 8.6 level and they can’t give the paper away. Bond – food and housing problems will make people pine for the good old days. They are not coming back.
This is not all gloom and oom, at least we don’t have to live in America – at least we used to have Habeus Corpus.
If Van is 10x better than winnipeg, why aren’t rents 10x higher?
Precisely.