Comfortable in a coma at greaterfool.ca 23 Jun 2010 12:36 am -
“Having sold out of Vancouver recently, I can’t imagine that market holding it’s prices. It’s beyond comprehension! That said, I have many friends who own houses there. None have bought in the last 5 years so they bought what they could afford. I don’t see any of them in trouble in a market collapse. Their payments aren’t suddenly going to increase! Unless we see a huge jump in unemployment, they’ll keep paying down what’s left on their mortgages and forget about the pretend house value of 2010. No-one I know has refinanced to buy toys. I don’t think we’ll see the re-fi carnage of the US. Unless suddenly we have mass lay-offs but we don’t have the big employers who could lay off 10,000.”
































Sounds like your friends will be mostly ok, assuming the economic carnage does not reach them. The industries who will be most affected by a downturn are the ones who gained the most in the boom – real estate, construction, banking, landscaping, etc.
My question is, what percentage of GDP in excess of historical norms is due to those industries, i.e. if construction is historically 10% but recently has been 15% of GDP, then you could expect a 30% contraction if that activity reverts to the mean, or more in a crash with a large supply of inventory.
I would say about half of my friends have a bigger mortgage now, than when they bought more than five years ago