Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence?: “Fundamentals don’t apply to Vancouver. Real estate has detached itself from economic reality long ago. It has reached escape velocity to break away from economic gravity. It is a beautiful case study. Something that has never, ever been seen before in any other city in the world.”

Increased bullish confidence is traditionally a sign of an overheated market, and rampant overconfidence a sign of an impending top. Vancouver RE, however, has been so hot for so long, and bullish cockiness has reached fever-pitch so frequently, that sentiment has proven to be a poor market timing device. Nevertheless we are interested in market emotion and will continue to collect signs of bear capitulation or bull hubris. A prior VREAA post [7 Jan 2010] listed numerous RE bullish blog quotes. This post will serve as an update and as an ongoing repository. It will be linkable from the sidebar. -vreaa

Steinbock at RE Talks 11 Jan 2010 8:12 pm – “BOC has announced that they will NOT increase the prime rate to control the hot real estate market for the foreseeable future. Yes, really. So:
1-it sux to be a bear.
2-Any bears willing to commit hara-kiri; please sign up now, as I have only one sword available.
3-It sux to be a bear.
4-Make sure to allow extra $ for cleanup if buying bear inhabited dwelling/property as excrement is being produced at an increased rate.
5-Bear rugs available at severe discount due to oversupply.
Your friend,  Steinbock”

jimtan at RE Talks 13 Jan 2010 00:29 am“What is the right strategy for a bull trend? Sensible people learn to buy on dips. What is the wrong strategy? It is foolish to refuse to buy, and to hold out for a ridiculous price. … You guys [bears] are the negative examples. Why spend time on this forum if you’re not willing to learn?”

jimtan at RE Talks 15 Jan 2010 10:01 am – “I’ve done the numbers and the bulls have the upper hand. The more noise I hear from the ideological bears, the better I feel. It’s confirmation that my analysis is right.”… “The bears… don’t do the numbers!”

silverman at RE Talks 14 Jan 2010 1:52 pm – “History tells us that over the long term you can’t lose.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 23 Jan 2010 10:15 am – “So how many bears are now priced out having sat out 2009 and the 18% increase in prices? Priced out also refers to never being able to “bring oneself” to pay the price now offered.”

Greenhorn at RE Talks 23 Jan 2010 00:01 am – “Fundamentals don’t apply to Vancouver. I am sorry to say (for the Bears) that Vancouver real estate has detached itself from economic reality long ago. It has reached escape velocity to break away from economic gravity. It is a beautiful case study. Really, something that has never, ever been seen before in any other city in the world. The Vancouver real estate market had a brief slow down 2 years ago, but resistance levels [support levels -ed.] kept prices from falling for long. As prices fell, new waves of buyers jumped at the opportunity to buy at prices they could finally afford. Question for the Bears: After how many years of denial do you change your tune? 5 years, 10 year, 20 years of continual appreciation? If you read text books, you will never make money in Vancouver from real estate. Forget about it. Sooner or later you will begin to sound like a heretic. Don’t be that crazy guy in the basement suite.”

Johnny Horton at RE Talks 24 Jan 2010 3:20 pm – “All these landless serfs spouting off about nothing for the past 10 years. Don’t you wish they’d just shut up?  We’ve had to listen to them bad mouth anybody or anything to do with real estate for the 10 years. We’ve had to suffer all their stupid graphs, and “good evidence”, etc. We’ve had to endure their insults…boo-hoo-hoo. Is there no end to their bitterness????”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 27 Jan 2010 7:29 am – “Economic conditions are irrelevant – Have you not learned anything in the past year?”

UPDATES, ongoing:

Austin at RE Talks 27 Jan 2010 10:10 am – “…as the world gets wealthier quality of life itself becomes a product. It looks like Vancouver is producing it.”

jimtan at RE Talks 29 Jan 2010 11:18 pm – “Affordability studies like this are worth nothing. Its comparing the median income of A-L-L residents to the median price paid ONLY by current buyers. Apples and oranges?”

silverman at RE Talks 5 Feb 2010 12:14 pm – “Look at it this way.
Miami: Future price movement… Down. Therefore, currently it is overvalued
Vancouver: Future price movement… Up. Therefore, currently it is undervalued”

tqn at RE Talks 8 Feb 2010 8:48 pm – [in a thread "Are there better places than Vancouver?"] “It’s the best place one earth, and it’s at the jealousy of the world.” [sic]

Eyes of the World at vancouvercondo.info 9 Feb 2010 11:58 am“Hahaha..I love checking in here [vancouvercondo.info] and seeing the same old “arguments” being rehashed over and over and over again… Vancouver is the best place on earth and the Olympics will show that to the world. People will walk around, notice the beauty and buy here.”

jiming at VREAA 10 Feb 2010 9:23 pm[commenting on an accountant's concerns re overextended mortgagees] “Blah blah blah.. new highs”.

Johnny Horton at RE Talks 10 Feb 2010 10:56 pm & 11 Feb 2010 9:21 pm- [addressing in turn dot com refugee and HomelessinSD, who had both found this house overpriced] “Why are you dissing a house that you can’t even afford to buy? If you diss the house, you actually are dissing yourself.” & “Who are you to talk down about this house? You can’t even afford to buy this house and yet you call it a “shit shack”. What does that make you?”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 14 Feb 2010 9:45 pm – “Rental yields to determine price only matters in commercial [and not residential] real estate – bears somehow adopted it as their explanation of a bubble.”

Johnny Horton at RE Talks 16 Feb 2010 5:12 pm – “Renting eventually equals poverty. You cannot earn enough money to accumulate wealth. The stock market is a big racket. Any investment gains other than your principal residence, is taxed. Your primary residence is tax free other than the costs of services every year. The dollar is eroding, hence you have to earn more to pay an ever increasing rent.”

eyesthebye at RE Talk 24 Feb 2010 8:53 am – “Homeowners have been using HELOC for years to reinvest in real estate and have made piles of cash. Hope you took your thumb out of your ass long enough to understand this.”

Vancouver Rocks at vancouvercondo.info 27 Feb 2010 1:32 pm – “The gods are on our side when it comes to real estate. The Vancouver boom is not over. It is just starting. All it will take is a couple of thousand visitors to buy, and the already low inventory will be eliminated. Sorry bears, but Vancouver will continue to go up and you will continue to be left behind.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 27 Feb 2010 2:43 pm – [in response to a bearish comment] “Dripping with naivety . If you can’t see that the Vancouver market has changed enormously in the past ten years then you’ve been living under a rock. In another ten years this city might be the most expensive and desirable place to live in the world.”

Alum at vancouvercondo.info 10 Mar 2010 9:34 am – “Go Vancouver RE……Go….!” [a reference to Olympic cheerleading; possibly intended as sarcasm; representative of current bullish sentiment and belief nonetheless]

Anonymous at vancouvercondo.info 11 Mar 2010 3:41 pm – [in response to a renter who enjoys the freedom that comes without a mortgage] “Hey, be sure to enjoy your “freedom” on the streets when you retire, and have no home of your own. Life is not easy, and sometimes it requires commitments like home ownership to get ahead.”

Vancouver Rocks at greaterfool.ca 12 Mar 2010 5:01 pm – “Those that sat out during the run up will NEVER EVER EVER get a chance to buy at pre-boom prices (2002).”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 18 Mar 2010 8:07 am – “As I’ve said many times before – rental yields, growth charts, graphs, pie charts, etc. mean nothing – what matters is demand. And if folks can scatch and claw their way to be able to own a piece of this paradise they will. Too bad for you.”

arpakdel at RE Talks 24 Mar 2010 11:05 am[This post, intended as intense sarcasm, may, perversely, end up being a literally accurate prediction! -vreaa] “Here is a wild WILD WILD thought… maybe they just bought a home for their growing family to enjoy and build memories in for many years to come in one of the best neighborhoods in one of the greatest cities in the world. But naaaah, that can’t possibly be. They must be greater fool first time buyers buying into the hype that owning a home has intangible value and they must be insanely over extending themselves, and it is only a matter of time that they whole world comes crashing down and they will be sad pathetic home owners that will regret their decision forever and will long for a time machine to turn back time so they could have a second chance to take the advice of renters.”

Johnny Horton at RE Talks 30 Mar 2010 9:56 am & 4:27 pm – “Yes, we all know the story about the kid who kept crying “wolf” when there was none. Then one day there was one and when he cried “wolf”, nobody came. The boy got eaten up. Or how about the story of the broken watch. It’s right two times a day. You Be :twisted: rs are long overdue to be right. Maybe this time? :mrgreen:” … “[I] can’t get over how fcuking stupid some of you Be :twisted: rs are. I don’t know which is greater your stupidity or your sourness. Both are pretty sizeable. :mrgreen:

eyesthebye at RE Talks 8 Apr 2010 9:21 am – “I’ve gained 130K in equity in the past year. The true cost of renting is what you don’t gain, not your monthly savings on the net difference from renting vs owning.” & at 9:44 am “I can access my equity anytime I want.” & at 6:33 pm “The “numbers” in Vancouver will never make sense”… “I’d be surprised if any accountant bought a SFH in Vancouver post 2006″ & 9 Apr 2010 9:22 am – “Using these numbers (rent:price ratios, median incomes:price, etc.) to justify your purchase will make a lifetime renter out of you.”

Johnny Horton at RE Talks 13 Apr 2010 8:44 am – “We are in a huge bubble. Probably for at least the last 40 or so years. So what? :mrgreen:

Anonymous at robchipman.net 14 Apr 2010 9:30 pm – “renters are at the bottom of lifes foodchain   suck it up losers”

silverman at RE Talks 15 Apr 2010 9:19 am – [with sarcasm] “Yup… nobody is smarter than a basement suite dweller waiting for the market to go down 40%.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 24 Apr 2010 9:15 am – [regarding David Rosenberg being bearish on Canadian RE] “I don’t think he has a grasp on how real estate works here in Vancouver. And I’m talking about detached, not condo or TH. There is not much product in the SFH segment since land is scarce. Vancouver (west side and east) in a very small city in terms of area. The “haves” play “keepaway” with the “have-nots”…that is to say, investors have a large pool of renters and are therefore not obliged to sell when prices begin to turn. Rosenberg lived in the US for many years and has probably never stepped foot in Vancouver.”

JimTan at Housing Analysis 1 May 2010 11:32 pm – “We now know that Canada is not like the States. Canadian and Vancouver RE followed a different trajectory. The bubble enthusiasts were 180 degrees wrong. … The cause for a bubble was missing. Players in Canada (and Vancouver) worked with public information that was adequate. They knew the risks. They did their numbers. Unlike the States, there was lack of panic and momentum. The market was information efficient and RE was correctly priced for the context.

Jack NoSourGrapes at macleans.ca 26 Apr 2010“Look, we are sorry you aren’t able to afford a house in Vancouver. There are people in cities all over the world that can’t afford to own there, so deal with it and move on.”

silverman [a realtor] at RE Talks 10 May 2010 10:21 am – [In response to a bear mentioning 35%-45% price drops] “Sorry, but you have a severe case of wishful thinking. There ain’t gonna be a 35% – 45% drop unless a 30′s depression, or 80′s inflation of 20% causing the doubling or tripling of interest rates, happen. What you will see in the near future, is a flat market in BC with a possible correction of no more than 5%. If a shortage materializes, then we could have some modest gains.”

Rob Chipman [a realtor] at robchipman.net 17 May 2010 3:00 am – “I don’t see big storm clouds on the horizon for this local market. Price growth may stall, or even drop, but no crash.”

silverman at vancouvercondo.info 28 May 2010 12:10 pm“You will have a hell of a time convincing a seller to accept less than what he paid.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 12 Aug 2009 6:03 pm as cited by eyesthebye at RE Talks 20 Jun 2010 11:49 am“One thing is damn sure about price direction. There is now no way there will be a major crash in Vancouver. What is happening with the market now has made a crash impossible. After fence-sitters and market-timers were burned expecting a big bust, got a 15% correction followed by another run up, what do you think the odds are that they’ll miss the boat next time? I’m betting they jump in at less than a 10% reduction due to itchy trigger finger syndrome.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 20 Jun 2010 8:35 pm“If simple earning were the only reason why properties are priced where they are you could definitely say the values are out to lunch – yet there’s more at work here in Vancouver, ain’t there? Foreign money, bank of Mom and Dad, wealthy retirees, etc. None of which has anything to do with the annual earnings:price calculation. Sorry bears, no grade school calculation is available for prices in this city.”

Austin at RE Talks 25 Jun 2010 10:21 am – “I think anything across the bridges, viaduct, or past 0 hastings and still on the south shore (ie, downtown) is becoming comparable to Manhattan.  In fact, I think it’s pretty reasonable to say, downtown Vancouver is the Manhattan of Canada.”

Tracie McTavish, president of Rennie Marketing Systems, quoted in Businessweek, 24 Jun 2010 - “Real estate is like a sport here.” [An outrageous comment, when you come to think of it. What's next? Government sponsored food-fights? -ed.]

vanreal at RETalks 17 Jul 2010 6:07 pm“Without a house you have no leverage to borrow more money if you need it. The banks will only lend significant sums to people with some form of security. Renting will destine you to a life of poverty. It is fine if you are young but you should get into the market asap. I bought in 1990 for 150,000 and my house is now worth over 1,000,000.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 23 Jul 2010 9:54 am“Since real estate mostly goes up, and is almost always close to peak, it’s not risky at all whatever time you sell. The only risk when selling is not getting back in fast enough and letting the market and your affordability get away on you.”

vanreal at RETalks 1 Aug 2010 9:42 pm – “Everyone keeps talking about how the fundamentals don’t support the 1st time buyer affording anything on an average household income of 60,000 but there are many many properties that the first time buyer can afford in the suburbs. Burnaby, Coquitlam, New West and Richmond all have apartments both 1 and 2 bedroom below 250,000 dollars. That is certainly affordable for an average family. It just cant be a single family house in the city. That ship has sailed.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 29 Aug 2010 8:46 am & 9:09 am – “I believe that a 6% appreciation/year is entirely likely. Prices will be up 30-40% from today in 2015.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 2 Nov 2010 9:49 am – “This is [a] common bear miscalculation – that rental prices need to be related to home prices. Calculating the cost of renting compared to owning will make you a renter for the rest of your life.”

Chris Davies, REIN member, ‘Bubble Blogging = Masturbation’ at chrisdavies.ca, 3 Nov 2010 – “Guys like Don [Campbell] and I don’t care if prices go up or down, or sideways.”

Larry Yatkowsky, realtor, as archived at VREAA 16 Nov 2010“You have to take a deep breath and realize that the world you thought you knew is not as it appears. You must understand and accept that there is untold wealth that exists within our city. A paltry $2.5 mil is chump change. What we are experiencing now is only a beginning.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 16 Nov 2010 8:22pm[On the effects of falling stock and commodity prices on RE] “If anything, investors will give up on the market and pour their money into a proper investment – real estate.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 6 Dec 2010 11:17am – [Describes own purchase in early 2009 and shows alternative they 'passed on' ] “I’ve taken the liberty of posting the listing – mostly because I want to show the bears the kind of prices they’ll never see again when they passed up a golden buying opportunity in early 2009.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 16 Dec 2010 9:34am – “Chinese investment in Vancouver … will last at least another three years due to the estimated backlog of investor class immigrant applications. This will probably be long enough to send Vancouver real estate to the moon without enough fuel to make it all the way back to earth.”

TheBestPlaceOnEarth at greaterfool.ca 20 Dec 2010 4:21am“Richmond is on friggin fire folks. Over 50% Asian investors and growing. House after house after house, we’re talking in the 100′s maybe 1000′s being bought bulldozed with a monster home put on top. No joke here Lamborghini’s with the N (New driver) sticker on them. Please come down to Richmond for a site visit you won’t believe it. Make no mistake about it these are cash deals NO MORTGAGE. God I love this place just plain unstoppable. The creme de la crem GOD ITS GREAT. Goin higher too! Love IT.” and more at 4:25am“If your talking you took 50 grand downpayment on that potential winner house in Richmond and bought a portfolio at a one time [gain] of 13% your looking at 6500 bucks. FOLKS DO THE MATH. Richmond house make you over 12 times the amount. WAKE UP NOW. STOP IT. Grow up and BUY. Do the math.For God’s Sake.”

eyesthebye at RE Talks 24 Dec 2010 8:33am – “I doubt Vancouver real estate will even correct more than 10% at any point in the future.” and 2:54pm – “To call Vancouver real estate a “bubble” is to say that it will one day burst. And to burst you’ll need sellers at much lower prices – I don’t see that happening. Sellers here take their homes off the market rather than discount. Hasn’t history taught you this?”

Exquisite Malevolence – Vancouver RE Bull Uses ‘It’s A Wonderful Life’ Quotes To Torture Bears On Xmas Day at VREAA 26 Dec 2010

“It’s hard to find a reputable analyst who predicts anything other than mild fluctuations in housing over the coming year or two. … Unlike stocks or commodities, homes are an asset that’s resistant to big drops in value.” [In same article concern about a bubble called 'hysteria' and 'hare-brained'.] - Jay Bryan, Montreal Gazette, 30 Dec 2010

“Sellers have spoken loudly many times recently…they WILL NOT give back the equity gained on their homes; they will simply take them off the market.”eyesthebye at RE Talks, 13 Jan 2011, 12:00pm

“Since I bought my home my “income” has been 40% from my job and 60% from housing appreciation. When I sell this is tax free money. Go ahead and rent forever.”L8erDude at yattermatters.com February 2nd, 2011 1:18 pm

[Addressing a bear who frequently discusses fundamentals]: “Your analysis and charts can be worshiped every where else on the planet. But Vancouver is your Waterloo. You should have known this by now. Vancouver RE is a totally different game.”unicas at RE Talks, 20 Feb 2011 5:19pm

[In response to: "I can't believe the type of money being thrown around on the West side. I don't even think the most bullish people foresaw these type of sales."]: “I think the bulls always knew it was possible. We all saw Vancouver as the best place to live in the world and foresaw more and more international money coming here. That said, I admit I’m stunned at the prices. I think the bears analysis was per usual…wrong.”eyesthebye at RE Talks 28 Feb 2011 2:52pm

“With sales remaining very strong and listings at a mere trickle, I think we’re about to see a 5 month price explosion on SFH like you’ve never seen before in this city.”eyesthebye at RE Talks 22 Mar 2011 10:40am

“Prices on detached are still too low. Detached is still about half of what it should be.”eyesthebye at RE Talks 29 Mar 2011 12:40pm

“If you don’t own your place Vancouver is not kind – can’t you tell by the sheer quantity of grumpy bears? For those of us that do, we consider Vancouver to be a paradise.”eyesthebye at RE Talks 6 Apr 2011 10:51am

“..the circle that I know continue to move on with their lives. They buy detached homes, start having kids, take promotions at their jobs, etc. These are young people in their 30′s who are born and raised Vancouverites, unlike most of the posters here.
Posters here live on the fringes of our society. The people I know are as disconnected with posters here as they are the addicts at Main/Hastings. You people are basically shadows to us.”
Rusty at VREAA 7 Jun 2011 8:24am

“When you start a family you buy a home.” … “If you don’t get the premise it’s because you don’t have children. And if you do have children and you don’t get it then you never should have entered into parenthood.”rusty at VREAA 1 July 2011 10:16am and 11:46am

“Would you care to make a wager on these predictions?
Any stake you’re comfortable with – as high as you want to go…I think I can cover it lol.”
“I want you to put the cash in my hand – so I can grin at you like a cheshire cat.”

- Rusty, in two posts at VREAA, 26 July 2011, attempting to set up a bet with vreaa regarding future price action. [Rusty doesn't believe a price crash is possible, or that a Vancouver RE bear could put up a bet that he couldn't cover.]

vanpro: “Vancouver homes are 3-4 TIMES the price of [comparable] Seattle homes. Median price of all homes in Seattle = US$340k = CDN$327k.”
jimtan: “So, move to Seattle. You’re be doing us a big favour.”

- exchange at RE Talks, 26 Jul 2011

“40,000 new residents in the GVRD each year. Why don’t you tell me if prices will be higher or lower in 5, 10 or 15 years?
Yes, inflation will always win. Haven’t you learned anything yet? People with homes are the ruling class…it’s always been this way (anywhere in the world), expecting it to change is idiotic.”
– Rusty, on a roll, at VREAA, 27 July 2011 12:31pm

“Here’s the recipe: gradually add 100K people to Vancouver, bake 15 years, sprinkle with development policy that reduces the # of detached dwellings…serve up a housing cost that doubles each 8-10 years. Go ahead and keep renting for the next 20 years. That’s a recipe that serves up a very sour tasting housing position.”  – rusty, at VREAA, 31 July 2011 6:12pm

“Chance of price collapse in property prices = nil.
You might get short and shallow correction like 2008 but that’s it.”

“Won’t ever see ['a solid 12 months of price declines'] in this city. Best bet maybe two seasons worth.”rusty, at VREAA, 1 Aug 2011 4:53pm& 5:21pm

[Addressing a renter] “Your savings will never keep up with the pace of property appreciation. Each year you wait is a year further you get from home ownership. Has history taught you nothing? If you’re happy being a lifelong renter or having to move out of Vancouver when you want to buy then continue to rent. Sounds like you’d have a nice lifestyle without owning – but you put your child at a distinct competitive disadvantage to a homewoners child.”Rusty at VREAA, 5 Aug 2011 10:19am

“Fear of debt is what keeps mosts of these bears from every taking on a mortgage.
The bold own homes, the bashful don’t
No risk = no reward”eyesthebye, RE Talks, 10 Sep 2011 4:11pm

An emotion related to hubris: Tamara Taggart demonstrating the excitable frisson that many owners of appreciating homes in BC demonstrate for the sport of Real Estate [VREAA, 28 Sep 2011]

“My instinct tells me that we’ll be able to weather whatever market storms come our way.”Kevin Vallely, a ‘residential designer in North Vancouver’, North Shore News, 28 Sep 2011

“I do not see this trend of rising house prices in Vancouver to end until this in-migration stops .. likely not until 2050.”Thomas Beyer, President, Prestigious Properties Group”
- RE Talks, 21 Sep 2011 3:22pm [cited at VREAA 24 Sep 2011]

VANHATTAN‘BC Homes Magazine’, Aug/Sep 2011 cover

“Do you think anyone cares that you’re priced out while others are still in the game? This is human competition at it’s basic level. Vancouver is for the strong, the fit; this city separates the wheat from the chaff.”
- Hardy at VREAA 8 Oct 2011

“There will be a day when you remember these days as an excellent buying opportunity.”

- formula1 at VREAA 7 Dec 2011 9:10pm

“I don’t think there is any sign anywhere from people on the ground in Canada that foresees the bubble. Economists predicting a collapse in Canada have been wrong for years; my prediction is that they’re going to be permanently wrong.”
- Gerald Soloway, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Home Capital, Bloomberg, 20 Apr 2012

“The idea of 40% price drops is farcical.”
- Robert McLister, mortgage broker, Bloomberg, 15 May 2012

“People come to town and say it is a bubble, but what do they know?”
- Bob Rennie, The Province, 24 Aug 2012

“Most homes here are bought by people with wealth. They can afford to hang on and wait for better market conditions, so it makes sense that listings are getting pulled. Conventional house price economic responses are more applicable to cities like Calgary and Edmonton. The rich are not the same as most people, otherwise Vancouver’s prices would never have risen so far above average household incomes in the first place.”
- ThinkRight commenting at Financial Post 4 Dec 2012

12 responses to “Bull Hubris?… Or Appropriate Owner Confidence?: “Fundamentals don’t apply to Vancouver. Real estate has detached itself from economic reality long ago. It has reached escape velocity to break away from economic gravity. It is a beautiful case study. Something that has never, ever been seen before in any other city in the world.”

  1. The market began to fall in 2008. No one knows how far it would have gone down before the Government implemented emergency interest rates and cut the CMHC criteria. This had the desired effect of stoking demand. However now the prices have risen enough to pretty much negate the benefits of the lower interest rates. Therefore the end is finally here.

    I believe it has already started. Lots of new listings and few buyers. Too early to tell but worth keeping an eye on.

    There are a number of events that could accelerate the process such as interest rates going up slightly but otherwise it could be a slow process as people hold waiting for a rebound.

  2. Thanks for the good laugh. Keep them coming, it’ll be fun to review these after the crash.

  3. It seems to me like most of the bulls already own. I havent heard many stories of bulls on RE websites who have recently bought.

    They are all just gloating because owning has worked out for them so far, but I think the bulls who read RE sites know that buying now couldnt possibly lead to the same gains we have seen in the past decade.

    I still think that Vancouver prices will fall signifigantly. Either that or we become the new Dubai… well maybe thats not a great example…

  4. I expect Vancouver to break free of the earth and simply float away.

  5. In Canada, personal debt levels are high but business debt levels are actually quite low. The government needs to figure out how to rein in personal debt and expand business debt. This likely means tighter mortgage and credit requirements in the coming year, not higher interest rates.

    Before my RET account was disabled I used to “debate” with these guys. Greenhorn and Johnny Whoreton are usually being tongue in cheek. The other ones you quote are gloating; I don’t know why they bother except to fill a void of hubris.

  6. Ya know I’m pissed. Why can’t my small business borrow 500K with $25K down at ANY interest rate… With a government insured loan?

    @Jesse I second your comment regarding a need to increase business debt. Perhaps the conservatives who pride themselves on having a focus on productivity will consider that maybe they should butress business demand more and housing less.

  7. Question for Jesse1

    Jesse, why was your account at Real Estate Talks disabled???????

  8. Fuengirola ;)

    [= bubbly Spanish resort; now crashed. -ed.]

  9. Sounds like the folks who bought Bre-x at 90$

  10. Costa del Sol is actually a nice place outside of July/August.
    The bull from the picture is on a hill, overlooking thousands of depreciating british condos.

  11. Incredible BULL HUBRIS, indeed.

    Had to brace myself, I just about fell into the swimming pool, here on Maui – where we RENT.

    Holy catfish – there are some economically challenged folks out there, that should come over to paradise, and watch the carnage.

    No one talks about all thos empty homes, and condos.

    The numbers tangled in MERS are lost in a pile of bank lawyers, and pissed off owners. People in my building have stopped paying their mortgage, nearly 2 years ago – and they are still here, slopping down the drinks at the owner parties.

    I think a lot of people in Canada are complacent and are whistling past the graveyard. Food price shocks added to an abrupt rise in fuel prices will sock a lot of over extended folks in the groin – and they will have to sell.

    The brilliant boomers that figured they get something for nothing, are all going to try and sell their home at the same time.

    Try craiglist, and see how many rentals are flooding onto the market – and at prices that won’t cover for the owners. These homes in West Vancouver sit empty for months, as you watch the price drop, every week, sometimes a few times a DAY.

    The same here on Maui. You pay up front and people fall all over themselves. We are in a 2.4 million dollar condo, and it’s costing us bopkes.

    Take a look aound and smell the wind.

    You will be surprised at how fast this dog stops hunting and the good ship leverage, sinks in a sea of bad debt.

    The Irish, Greek, American, Spanish, British, and soon the Canucks will all feel the pain of recourse loans.

  12. Hymie Garshman

    So who was right?

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